Over the last 12 months (April 2022-March 2023) there has been a major increase in applications for international protection in the EU+, fuelled by conflict, political and social upheaval, economic hardships and food insecurity. Applications have been at or approaching levels that resemble the so-called 2015-2016 refugee crisis. The high level of asylum applications underestimates the total number of persons arriving with protection needs, because 4 million newly arrived Ukrainians are at the same time also benefitting from temporary protection. Simultaneously, these two trends are exerting a substantial strain on EU+ asylum and reception systems, pushing national authorities to their limits to accommodate and safeguard those in need.

Asylum applicants originate from a range of countries, including conflict affected states such as Syria, countries undergoing political and social turmoil such as Afghanistan, and those facing humanitarian crises such as Venezuela. Russians have also been lodging more applications for asylum plus they are more frequently being granted protection.[1] [2] Turks on the other hand, are also lodging many more applications, but their recognition rate is declining – see charts in next sections.

The EUAA provides guidance, training, situational awareness and operational support to EU member states with the aim of implementing the Common European Asylum System.

In March 2023, the EU+ received 92,000 applications for asylum which is more than a 10% increase compared to both the previous month and the same month in 2022. In fact, applications in March 2023 were at a level that has only been surpassed four times since the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-2016, and all four of these occasions were in the last six months. These numbers demonstrate that there is a clear and current escalation in the number of asylum seekers presently lodging applications for protection in the EU+.

In March 2023, Syrians and Afghans continued to lodge the most applications for asylum (10,000 and 9,500, respectively), both with increases compared to a year ago in March 2022, especially Syrians (+29%) but both down compared to the peaks of 18,000 and 15,000 recorded in November 2022. In March 2023, more than half of all Syrian and Afghan applications were lodged in Germany, while both Syrians and Afghans were also among the most detected citizenships on the Western Balkan route towards the EU+. Turks also lodged many more applications in March 2023 (5,900), more than double that of March 2022 but also down compared to the recent peak in November 2022 (8,300). Again, more than half of all Turkish applications were lodged in Germany.

Unrelated to trends in irregular migration, there is a persistent pattern of increased asylum applications being lodged by Venezuelans and Colombians, and to a lesser extent, Peruvians who can enter the Schengen area without a visa.[3] These Latin Americans continued to submit increasing numbers of applications, even during the winter months such that in March 2023, they lodged record numbers of applications, with 6,500 and 6,000 and 2,200 apiece. The vast majority of these applications were lodged in Spain.

In 2022, Egyptians, Tunisians and Bangladeshis were commonly detected in the central Mediterranean, and at the same time these citizenships were, and still are, associated with high and increasing levels of asylum applications, especially in Italy where Pakistanis also lodge many applications.

Context: Immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, the EU+ received approximately 60,000 monthly applications for asylum. Then in 2022, once travel restrictions were things of the past, applications rose to about 70,000 per month, between May and July, and remained above the 90,000 mark for the rest of the year. In addition, approximately 4 million Ukrainians currently benefit from temporary protection in the EU after fleeing Russian aggression in Ukraine. Together these two parallel trends posed significant challenges to EU+ asylum, reception and other authorities, so much so that by the end of 2022 the EUAA was offering operational assistance to 14 Member States (read more). Overall, these figures, plus the continuation of the situation in the first quarter of 2023, suggest persistent pressure on asylum and reception systems across Europe, with record numbers of asylum seekers lodging applications for international protection in the EU+.

In March 2023, Syrians and Afghans continued to lodge the most applications for asylum (10,000 and 9,500, respectively) together representing one in five of all applications. These two citizenships have dominated applications for international protection in the EU+ for many years. More recently Venezuelans, Colombians and to a lesser extent also Peruvians have been lodging increasingly significant proportions of all applications in the EU+, together accounting for 16% in March 2023. Similarly, Turks now account for a non-trivial part of all applications in the EU+ (6%), as do Bangladeshis (4%).

Context: In Syria, civilians are still exposed to armed conflicts and targeted attacks 12 years after the beginning of the conflict, while the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has had a major impact on the security and rights of women in Afghanistan. Applicants from Venezuela and Colombia stand out because these two countries benefit from visa-free travel and so their nationals are permitted to enter the EU’s Schengen area for short stays along with other passengers, even on flights from their home countries.

In March 2023, the EU+ recognition rate shifted downwards by a couple of percentage points because Spain rapidly issued many (+12,000) first-instance decisions on its Venezuelan caseload. These decisions granted a national form of humanitarian protection rather than international protection and so are counted as negative asylum decisions in terms of EU-regulated statuses. As a result of this flurry of decision making, the recognition rate for the whole of the EU+ fell from 41% in February 2023 to 36% in March 2023. For most other EU+ countries the recognition rate remained stable.

Recognition rates for most of the main citizenships differ widely from each other but tend to remain fairly stable over time. For example, in March 2023, Syrians had a recognition rate of 96%, Iranians 46%, Bangladeshis 3% and Pakistanis 9%. However, there are recent exceptions, such as Turks for whom the recognition rate fell from 43% in March 2022 to 28% in March 2023, and Russians for whom the recognition rate increased from 27% in March 2022 to 38% in March 2023. However, by far the most dramatic changes in recent times took place for:

• Ukrainians - the recognition rate jumped from 14% before the full-scale Russian invasion to 93% in April 2022. Since then, the Ukrainian recognition rate has remained above 90% with nearly all decisions granting subsidiary protection (rather than refugee status).
• Afghans – immediately subsequent to the Taliban takeover in autumn 2021, the Afghan recognition rate jumped from its usual value of around 50% to more than 90%, before gradually returning to its original level.

Context: It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Afghanistan, tend to be granted national (rather than international) forms of protection which are unregulated at the EU level and are therefore considered as negative decisions in these statistics. Also, these recognition rates are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and do not account for cases decided by judiciary and other authorities at second or higher instance i.e. appeal and review.

At the end of March 2023, some 665,000 cases were awaiting a first instance decision which is up by 32% compared to March 2022 and is more than at any other point since early 2017 when EU+ countries were still processing cases lodged during the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-2016. For the most part, the citizenships with the most applications lodged also have the most cases awaiting decisions. For example, in March 2023 Syrians and Afghans had by far the most pending cases (86,000 and 71,000, respectively), increasingly so for Syrians but more or less stable for Afghans. However, pending cases have more than doubled over the last year for Colombians and Peruvians (mostly in Spain), Turks and Russians (mostly in Germany), and Egyptians (mostly in Italy).

Context: Over the last 12 months, EU+ asylum authorities managed to increase their decision making, often with the operational support of the EUAA, but despite these efforts decision making has not kept pace with the surge of applications being lodged. As a consequence, the total number of cases awaiting a decision at the end of 2022 (including those in appeal or review) increased to 967,000.