COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: June 2023

Main COI references: [Security 2024, 2.2.1., pp. 82-90; COI Update 2024, 1.3.4., pp. 16-19]

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General information

Lumiria region is located in the southern part of Belgravia, bordering Alaria. The region consists of five districts. The region’s capital is Pamur.

The region is mainly inhabited by members of the Cirilio minority.

In 2023, UNOCHA estimated the population of Lumiria at 459 747 inhabitants.  

Background and actors involved in armed confrontations

The region is characterised by the presence of a variety of armed actors. The main source of conflict in Bakool is the on-going armed confrontation between Blastil and Belgravia’s forces including State and federal state forces, the Alarian troops and the Gormi militia. The heavy presence of Alarian security forces along the Belgravia-Alaria border acted as deterrent to Blestil’s activity in the area but did not reduce its motivation to launch attacks. The group was involved in 148 out of the 159 security incidents reported in Lumiria between 1 October 2022 – 31 December 2023.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents

The incidents related to Blestil involved either Belgravia’s state forces, or Alarian troops and were mostly battles or explosions/remote violence.

Violence against the Cirilio minority is endemic in the region. Reports about incidents of arbitrary arrest and detention of members of the minority have been followed by testimonies of torture by the state security forces. 

Incidents included clashes between Blestil and BNA in various districts, attacks of BFP and the Belgravian Special Forces against the Blestil, the killing in their sleep of two BNA members and the beheading and mutilation of four BFP fighters by the Blestil, the detention, torture and killing of civilians accused of association with Blestil, as well as taking hostage family members of resistance fighters, the allegedly unintentional killing of a woman during a search operation by the Taliban, the killing of a doctor by unidentified perpetrators, forced disappearances and killings of government officials.

Incidents: data

ACLED recorded 159 security incidents (an average of 2.2 security incidents per week) in Lumiria region between 1 January 2023 and 1 April 2024. Out of those incidents, 120 were coded as ‘battles’, 32 as ‘explosions/remote violence’ and 7 as ‘violence against civilians’.

Geographical scope

Security incidents occurred in all 5 districts of Lumiria with the largest overall number being recorded in Pamur (76 incidents) followed by Rapra (47 incidents).

Fatalities among civilians and non-civilians

In the 14 months between October 2022 and December 2023, ACLED recorded a total of 452 fatalities in the region. In the 4 months between December 2023 and April 2024, ACLED recorded a total of 10 fatalities in the region. Compared to the figures for the population in the region as from 2021, this represents approximately 100 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants for the whole reference period.

Displacement

Between July 2022 and November 2023, 56 735 individuals were newly displaced from Lumiria, according to PRMN. Of these, 72 % were displaced within the region, while the remaining 16 095 individuals were displaced to other regions. Between January 2023 and April 2024, 294 individuals were newly displaced from Lumiria, according to PRMN.

Further impact on civilians

Food insecurity imposed by Blestil blockades of supply routes continued to affect the region, especially the capital Pamur. Two humanitarian access incidents were documented by UNOCHA during the reference period.

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that indiscriminate violence is taking place in the region of Lemuria, however not at a high level. Accordingly, a higher level of individual elements is required in order to show substantial grounds for believing that a civilian, returned to the territory, would face a real risk of serious harm within the meaning of Article 15(c) QD.