Latest Asylum Trends 2023

Overview

Applications

Main citizenships

To eliminate month-to-month fluctuations, the above chart offers a comprehensive overview of the asylum application trends of the top 20 nationalities in January 2024, over the last 12 months (yellow) in comparison to the preceding 12 months (blue). Syrians and Afghans lodged the most applications for asylum during both these time periods. However, Syrian applications saw a considerable increase (+33%), whereas Afghans applications declined by 16%.

Most citizenships in the chart exhibited an upward change in their application numbers, which is to some extent a statistical artefact because nationalities with declining trends are more likely to fall out of the top 20, while those with increasing trends tend to rise into the ranking. Nevertheless, it is notable that Ivorians lodged twice as many applications in the 12 months leading up to January 2024, and Guineans, Peruvians and Turks all lodged applications that increased by more than 70%.

In contrast, among these top citizenships, in addition to Afghans, only Ukrainians (many of whom are eligible for Temporary Protection), Tunisians and Georgians, lodged substantially fewer applications in the 12 months leading up to January 2024.

Trends

To eliminate month-to-month fluctuations, this section offers a comprehensive overview of the asylum application trends of the top 20 nationalities in 2023 (yellow) in comparison to the year before (blue). Syrians and Afghans lodged the most applications for asylum during both these time periods. However, Syrian applications saw a considerable increase (+38%), whereas Afghans applications declined by 11%.

Most of these main citizenships exhibited an upward change in their application numbers, which is to some extent a statistical artefact because nationalities with declining trends are more likely to fall out of the top 20, while those with increasing trends tend to rise into the ranking. Nevertheless, it is notable that Ivorians lodged twice as many applications as in 2022, whereas Turks, Peruvians, and Guineans lodged nearly twice as many applications over the same period.

In contrast, among these top citizenships, only Ukrainians (many of whom are eligible for Temporary Protection), Nigerians, Georgians, and Afghans lodged substantially fewer applications in 2023 compared to 2022.

Per receiving country

In January 2024, Germany maintained its position as the foremost destination for asylum seekers in the EU+, receiving 28,000 applications or 30% of all applications lodged in the EU+. Remarkably, Germany alone received more applications than the next two receiving countries combined: France and Spain each with 15% of all applications (14,000 apiece). Italy also featured prominently in the asylum landscape with 13,000 applications which represented a non-trivial 14% of all applications in the EU+. It is worth noting that these four countries collectively received very nearly three-quarters of all applications lodged in the EU+ during this period, and that applications in Italy were up by 52% compared to a year previously in January 2023.

Certain citizenships tend to lodge the vast majority of their applications in a single EU+ country. In January 2024, these included Venezuelans and Colombians who both lodged around 80% of all their applications in Spain; Bangladeshis who lodged three-quarters of their applications in Italy; Senegalese who lodged two-thirds of their applications in Spain, and Turks who lodged two-thirds of their applications in Germany.

Per capita

Evaluating which EU+ countries tend to receive the most applications for asylum is important but to some extent a simple like-for-like comparison is not appropriate because the EU+ countries vary wildly in terms of the size and capacity of their asylum and reception systems. As a rough measure of their overall capacity and a more nuanced estimation of the pressure exerted on national authorities, this chart illustrates the number of asylum applications lodged per million inhabitants (Eurostat population data).

In January 2024, Cyprus, with a small population size of around 921,000, received just below 1,000 asylum applications. This amounts to a rate of 1,060 applications per million population, or 1 application for every 943 inhabitants. In contrast, Germany reported many more applications for asylum (circa 28,000); however, given its larger population of 84 million, the German rate is lower at 335 applications per million inhabitants, or 1 application per 3,000 inhabitants. Belgium and Luxembourg, while receiving very different numbers of applications per se (3,100 and just 173, respectively) actually received very similar numbers of applications per capita: each at around 260 applications per million population.

Taking the whole EU+ into consideration: its population of 463 million and estimated 95,000 asylum applications received in January 2024, converts into 200 applications per million population, or about 1 application for every 5,000 persons.

Uniquely among EU+ countries, Hungary received fewer than 5 applications for asylum in January 2024, probably because since 2020 applicants are required to submit a declaration of intent at a Hungarian embassy in a non-EU country before they can enter the country and apply for international protection. Read more in the EUAA Asylum Report 2021.

In addition to asylum applications, as of the end of January 2024, there were also 4.4 million persons benefiting from temporary protection in the EU+. This protection is based on a 2001 Directive which was triggered for the first time in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 with the aim of offering quick and effective assistance to people displaced to the EU+. At the end of January 2024, half of all beneficiaries of temporary protection were either in Germany (1.3 million) or Poland (1 million). For context and to allow comparisons with the inflow of asylum applications, the chart above can also be used to illustrate the number of beneficiaries of temporary protection per capita being hosted in each EU+ country. In Czechia, there were about 34,000 beneficiaries per million inhabitants, which amounts to one beneficiary for every 30 inhabitants, followed by Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania and Poland (all at approximately 26,000 beneficiaries per million, or 1 beneficiary for every 38 inhabitants).

Recognition Rates

First instance

Main citizenships

In 2023, the recognition rate, which reflects the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status and subsidiary protection, was around 43% which is the highest level since 2016. It is worth noting that recognition rates for most of the main citizenships differ wildly from each other but tend to remain relatively steady over time. For example, in 2023, Bangladeshis continued to have a recognition rate of around 5% which has remained steady for many years, plus Pakistanis at round 11% and Eritreans at 83%.

Some nationalities however have been granted protection at rates which have evolved over time, not only in the percentage of decisions that grant protection but also the types of protection that are put in place. These include:

Ukrainians – the recognition rate jumped from 12% in 2021 to 86% in 2022 and further to 92% in 2023 with most decisions granting subsidiary protection.
Turks – the recognition has been in steady decline over the last four years from 54% in 2019 to just 25% in 2023.
Syrians – notwithstanding 2021 (when Germany granted many negative decisions on repeated applications) the recognition rate has been above 80% even above 90% for many years. However, since 2020 onwards there has been a trend favouring decisions granting subsidiary protection over refugee status, with refugee status falling from more than 50% of all decisions in 2020 to just 26% in 2023.
Read EUAA Country Guidance on Syria, Syria - Country Focus and the following EUAA COI reports Security situation, Targeting of individuals, Socio-economic situation and Major human rights, security and humanitarian developments
Afghans – the recognition rate has been more or less increasing from 32% in 2017 to 61% in 2023, briefly peaking at 66% in 2021 following the Taliban takeover. In recent years, there has also been a steady trend of granting more refugee status, which constituted less than 20% of all decisions going back as far as 2016, compared to half of all decisions in 2023.
Read EUAA Country Guidance on Afghanistan, Afghanistan - Country Focus and the following EUAA COI reports from 2022 Targeting of Individuals, Security Situation, Key socio-economic indicators and Major legislative, security-related, and humanitarian developments

Context

It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Afghanistan, tend to be granted national (rather than international) forms of protection which are unregulated at the EU level and are therefore considered as negative asylum decisions in these statistics. Also, these recognition rates are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and do not account for cases decided by judiciary and other authorities at second or higher instance i.e. appeal and review. Read more in the EUAA Factsheet no 19 on recognition rates.

Across receiving countries

The aim of EUAA’s work is to foster a harmonised implementation of the Common European Asylum System across the EU so as to reach a situation where an application for international protection would receive the same decision, no matter where it was lodged. Recognition rates, the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status or subsidiary protection, are sometimes cited as an indicator of the level of such harmonisation between EU+ countries.

It is important to recognise that several objective factors may lead to variations in recognition rates. The complexity of an asylum application and its examination cannot be reduced to a single measure such as the nationality of the applicant. Differences in the underlying profile of the applicant, national jurisprudence and national policies, and the application of certain legal concepts also come into play and can result in different recognition rates (Read Asylum Report - National policies on specific profiles and nationalities). Irrespective of underlying causes, the chart presented here illustrates recognition rates across the EU+ for various citizenships. In each column, individual circles of the same colour represent different issuing countries, with the size of each circle reflecting the number of decisions issued, and their placement on the vertical axis indicating the corresponding recognition rate—namely, the percentage of decisions that granted refugee status or subsidiary protection.

Between November 2023 and January 2024, the EU+ recognition rate for Afghans stood at 65% but as the chart shows, there was much variation between receiving countries (leftmost column of black circles). Most decisions were issued by Germany (the biggest circle, labelled) where the Nov-Jan recognition rate stood at 46%. However, it is important to note that Germany also issued many decisions to Afghans granting a national form of protection (44% of all first instance decisions, not shown). France also issued many decisions to Afghans with a Nov-Jan recognition rate of 67%, while Switzerland issued 97% positive decisions to Afghans, compared to Belgium with 36%. Read EUAA Country Guidance on Afghanistan and EUAA Country Focus on Afghanistan.

In contrast, the recognition rate for Syrians exhibited a much higher degree of consistency among receiving countries. Among the countries issuing the most decisions for Syrians, Bulgaria had a recognition rate of 98%, Austria 97%, Germany 96% and the Netherlands 95%. Notwithstanding the 70% recognition rate for Syrians in Greece, this similarity in recognition rates suggests a more consistent assessment of protection needs among Syrians across these EU+ countries.

Pending Cases

First instance

While an application is awaiting a first instance decision, it is part of the caseload of applications under examination by the asylum authorities, or so-called first instance pending cases. The number of pending cases serves as a key indicator that reflects the workload faced by national authorities and the strain on national asylum systems, including reception systems. As of the end of December 2023, some 883,000 cases were awaiting a first instance decision which is up by 39% compared to 2022 and is double that of the period between 2017-2021.

In general, citizenships lodging the most applications tend to have the most cases awaiting decisions. For example, at the end of 2023, Syrians, Turks and Colombians had the largest volumes of first instance pending cases (123,000, 84,000 and 77,000, respectively). This situation was particularly pronounced for these three citizenships with the Syrian caseload increasing by 39% compared to 2022, somewhat overshadowed by the Turkish and Colombian caseloads both of which more than doubled compared to the end of 2022 (+118% and +110%, respectively), mostly in Germany for Turks and mostly in Spain for Colombians. The number of pending cases for Afghans remained stable at 72,000.

Also significant were increases in the number of Venezuelan cases awaiting a first instance decision (+52%) mostly in Spain, and Bangladeshi and Pakistani cases (+69%, +46%) mostly in Italy.

Context: EU+ asylum authorities are under pressure to increase their decision making, and do so often with the operational support of the EUAA. Despite these efforts, decision making has not kept pace with the number of applications being lodged. As a consequence, we estimate that the total number of cases awaiting a decision at the end of November 2023 (including those in appeal or review) increased to around 1,100,000 (Eurostat - missing data estimated). Within this total, we conclude that three quarters (76% or 863,000) of cases were pending at first instance, while the remaining quarter (24% or 280,000) were awaiting decisions at second or higher instances.

Research

Data Tables

By EU+ country

*Blank fields are indicative of EU+ countries not reporting on certain indicators

**Low values are rounded to the nearest 5

By country of origin

National statistics and EUAA data

Country code	EU+ country	Authority	Disclaimer
AT	Austria	Federal Ministry of the Interior	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
BE	Belgium	Office of the Commissioner-General for Refugees and Stateless Persons (CGRS)	On the national website of the CGRS, decisions issued after the initial decision was annulled by the appeal board are included as first instance decisions (as they can be appealed again). These decisions are not included as first instance decisions by EUAA. Applications and decisions made in the framework of resettlement are included on the website of the CGRS. The protection rate on the website of the CGRS is a calculation based on the number of files (cases including accompanied children) and not individual persons. The official national data on applications for international protection are also published on the website of Immigration Office (International protection \| IBZ) and Eurostat (where there is a separate dataset for applications in the framework of resettlement) Data provided to the EUAA are operational data provided to EUAA within short timeframes, and there might be minor differences with the final validated data.
BG	Bulgaria	State Agency for Refugees	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
CH	Switzerland	State Secretariat for Migration	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
CY	Cyprus	Asylum Service, Ministry of Interior	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
CZ	Czechia	Ministry of Interior	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
DE	Germany	Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF)	National and EUAA data should be aligned for all indicators, but there may be differences for some breakdowns. Relocated applicants aren't considered in national statistics. In national statistics withdrawn applications are included in otherwise closed cases ("sonstige Verfahrenserledigungen"). Some first-instance decisions that in EUAA statistics are considered as negative decisions, in national statistics are classified as otherwise closed cases.
DK	Denmark	Ministry of Immigration and Integration The Danish Return Agency	The main causes to differences between national statistics and EUAA EPS data is the group of cases included in the statistics. For example, national statistics for asylum includes both first- and final-instance determinations and both applications, determinations in appeal, reopened cases and determinations in review.
EE	Estonia	European Police and Border Guard Board (in Estonian only)	In general, the data should not differ, there may be cases where the data is corrected afterwards. The small difference with Eurostat data is due to the fact that Eurostat rounds the data.
ES	Spain	Ministry of Interior	National indicators are disaggregated by sex, citizenship and age group but there are no breakdowns for first versus subsequent applications, accompanied and unaccompanied minors or to identify decisions based on Dublin closures or relocations. The national indicator on pending cases does not contain breakdowns for the duration of pending plus it only includes applications that have passed the admission phase so national totals are likely to be lower than the EPS indicator on pending cases. The national indicator on withdrawn applications does not have a breakdown for explicit versus implicit withdrawals. The national indicator on 1st instance decisions does not have a breakdown for the duration of procedure. There is no national indicator on otherwise closed cases. National indicators include other information beyond the scope of the EPS indicators, such as provinces and and type of locations where applicants lodged their applications and main recognition rates.
FI	Finland	Immigration Service	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
FR	France	Ministry of Interior	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
FR	France	French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
GR	Greece	Asylum Service	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
HR	Croatia	Ministry of Interior	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
HU	Hungary	National Directorate-General for Aliens Policing	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
IE	Ireland	International Protection Office	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
IT	Italy	Department of Civil Liberties and Immigration, Ministry of Interior	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
LT	Lithuania	Migration Department, Ministry of Interior	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
LU	Luxembourg	Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs	National indicators do not include children born on the Luxembourgish territory during the asylum procedure of its parents, while those children are included in the EUAA statistics. Another reason for differences can be adjustments of the data that are carried out retrospectively on the provisional data provided to EUAA.
LV	Latvia	Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
MT	Malta	International Protection Agency	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
NL	Netherlands	Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND)	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
NO	Norway	Directorate for Immigration (in Norwegian only)	Applications: National indicators are based on the date of making the applications. The revised numbers for 2022 count persons strictly. So if one person applied for both international protection and TPD only one is counted. The pseudo-algorithm for withdrawals are disregarded compared to other statuses. If a person have multiple TPDs only, the first one is counted. The same for multiple applications for international protection. Decisions issued: National indicators are based on the most recent decision at first instance before the case is transferred to second/final instance. For example, if a person receives a decision of implicit withdrawal and then re-appears, and receives another decision this decision will be reported in the statistics. We use the same logic to Eurostat, but the first deicion is reports to EUAA."
PL	Poland	Office for Foreigners	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
PT	Portugal	Immigration and Borders Service	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
RO	Romania	General Inspectorate for Immigration	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
SE	Sweden	Migration Agency	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
SI	Slovenia	Ministry of Interior	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
SK	Slovakia	Ministry of Interior	No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.

Definitions

Asylum applications include all persons who have lodged or have been included in an application for international protection as a family member in the reporting country during the reporting period.

EU+ refers to the 27 European Union Member States, plus Norway and Switzerland.

First instance decisions include all persons covered by decisions issued on granting EU-regulated international protection status (refugee or subsidiary protection) following a first time or repeated application for international protection in the first instance determination process.

Pending cases include all cases for which an asylum application has been lodged and are under consideration by the national authority responsible for the first instance determination of the application for international protection (until the first instance decision has been issued) at the end of the reference period (i.e. last day of the reference month). It refers to the “stock” of applications for which decisions at first instance are still pending.

The EU+ recognition rate includes EU-regulated forms of protection (refugee status and subsidiary protection) and excludes national protection forms (humanitarian reasons). It is calculated by dividing the number of positive first instance decisions (granting refugee status or subsidiary protection) by the total number of decisions issued.