Almost continually since August 2022, the EU+ countries have received over 80,000 asylum applications per month, marking a significant increase that has not been observed for many years. In September 2023, this figure further increased to 108,000 applications, a level reminiscent of the refugee crisis of 2015-16. If the current trends continue, it is projected that the EU+ will receive more than a million asylum applications by the end of 2023.

However, these high levels of asylum applications do not fully capture the extent of individuals arriving in the EU+ with protection needs. Approximately 4.2 million displaced persons from Ukraine are currently benefitting from Temporary Protection.

These concurrent trends - the surge in asylum applications and the influx of displaced persons from Ukraine - are exerting immense strain on the EU+ asylum and reception systems. National authorities are being pushed to their limits in their efforts to accommodate and safeguard those in need.

In the realm of asylum applications within the EU+, a significant shift was observed in September 2023: Syrians, who have long dominated the asylum landscape, lodged the most applications for seven years (20,000) while Afghans the usual second-place holder, lodged 17% fewer applications compared to the same month in 2022, totalling just 11,400. Simultaneously, there was an unexpected surge of Turkish asylum seekers lodging 11,500 applications in September 2023. This figure represents double that of the same month in 2022, and the most on record, bringing Türkiye to the second most common country of origin for asylum applications in the EU+.

These three nationalities share several commonalities. In 2023, they were the most frequently detected nationalities illegally crossing the EU external border via the Western Balkan route. Furthermore, Germany emerged as the primary destination for these three nationalities, with half of all Syrian applications, more than half of all Turkish applications, and over a third a third of Afghan applications being lodged there in September 2023. This trend underscores Germany’s role as a key destination within the EU+.

Also noteworthy in September was the significant increase in applications lodged by nationals from Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire within the EU+. In fact, both Guineans and Ivorians lodged record numbers of applications in September, with 2,400 and 2,100, respectively. This marked staggering increases of 145% and 185% compared to the same month in 2022. These two nationalities were among the most frequently detected arriving in the Central Mediterranean. However, the majority of their asylum applications were lodged in France, which underscores the dynamic and evolving nature of asylum application patterns within the EU+.

In a trend seemingly detached from irregular migration, there persists a high volume of asylum applications from Venezuelans and Colombians, and to a lesser extent, Peruvians. These Latin American nationals, who enjoy visa-free access to the Schengen area, continued to submit significant numbers of applications in September 2023: 5,300 from both Venezuela and Colombia, and 1,900 from Peru. While these figures represent a slight decrease from recent peaks, they are markedly higher compared to the same month in 2022 (+17%, +31%, and +64%, respectively). The majority of these applications were lodged in Spain, accounting for more than 90% of Venezuelan applications and 88% of Colombian applications in September 2023, plus nearly all were first-time applications, suggesting that the applicants were newly arrived to the EU+. In response to challenges linked to visa-free travel, particularly the high numbers of unfounded asylum applications, the Commission adopted a proposal in October 2023 to strengthen the visa suspension mechanism.

To eliminate month-to-month fluctuations, the above chart provides offers a comprehensive overview of the asylum application trends of the top 20 nationalities in September 2023, over the last 12 months (yellow) in comparison to the preceding 12 months (blue). Syrians and Afghans lodged the most applications for asylum during both these time periods. However, Syrian applications saw a considerable increase (+50%), whereas Afghan applications remained relatively stable.

Most citizenships in the chart exhibited an upward change in their application numbers, which is to some extent a statistical artefact because we would expect those with decreasing trends to more likely drop below the top 20, and vice versa for those with increasing trends. Nevertheless, it is notable that Turks, Russians and Peruvians all lodged more than twice as many applications during the 12 months leading up to September 2023. Notably, Ivorians, Egyptians, Moroccans, and Guineans also lodged many more applications in the past year.

In contrast, among these top citizenships, only Nigerians, Tunisians and Iraqis lodged fewer applications in the twelve months leading into September 2023.

In September 2023, Germany maintained its position as the foremost destination for asylum seekers in the EU+, receiving 30,000 applications or 27% of all applications lodged in the EU+. Remarkably, Germany alone received more applications than the next two receiving countries combined, namely France with 13% of all applications (15,000) and Spain with 12% (14,000). Italy too featured prominently in the asylum landscape with over 12,000 applications which represents a non-trivial 11% of all applications in the EU+. It is worth noting that taken together these four countries received just under two thirds of all applications lodged in the EU+ in September 2023.

Comparisons with September 2022 reveal some notable increases: applications in Germany increased by 41%, in Spain by 21%, in Italy by 45%, and in Greece applications more than doubled (+111%).

Evaluating which EU+ countries tend to receive the most applications for asylum is important but to some extent a simple like-for-like comparison is not appropriate because the EU+ countries vary wildly in terms of the size and capacity of their asylum and reception systems. As a rough measure of their overall capacity and a more nuanced estimation of the pressure exerted on national authorities, this chart illustrates the number of asylum applications lodged per million inhabitants (Eurostat population data).

In September 2023, Austria, with a population size of around 9.1 million, received 8,300 asylum applications. This translates to 912 applications per million population, which is roughly 1 application for every 1,100 inhabitants. Germany reported more applications for asylum (30,000); however, given its larger population of 84 million, the German rate is lower at 351 applications per million inhabitants, or 1 application per 2,900 inhabitants. Spain and Belgium, while receiving very different numbers of applications per se (14,000 and 3,200, respectively), tended to be under similar pressure per capita. Each country had around 280 applications per million population.

Taking the whole EU+ into consideration: its population of 463 million and 108,000 asylum applications received in September 2023, converts to 234 applications per million population, or about 1 application for every 4,300 persons.

Uniquely among EU+ countries, Hungary received very few applications for asylum in September 2023, probably because of special conditions required to submit an asylum application which were introduced by the Hungarian government in May 2020. Read more in the EUAA Asylum Report 2021.

In addition to asylum applications, as of the end of September 2023, there were also 4.2 million persons benefiting from temporary protection. This protection is based on a 2001 Directive which was triggered for the first time in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The aim is to offer quick and effective assistance to people displaced to the EU+. At the end of September 2023, half of all beneficiaries of temporary protection were either in Germany (1.2 million) or Poland (1 million). For the context and to allow comparisons with the inflow of asylum applications, the chart above can also be used to illustrate the number of beneficiaries of temporary protection per capita in each EU+ country. In Czechia there were about 34,000 beneficiaries per million inhabitants, followed by Estonia,  Poland and Bulgaria (all at 26,000).