In the second half of 2022 and in early 2023, a major increase in applications for international protection is occurring in the EU+, fuelled by conflict, political and social upheaval, economic hardships, and food insecurity. Applications have been at the highest levels since the so-called 2015-16 refugee crisis. However, this high level of asylum applications is not indicative of the total number of persons arriving with protection needs, because several million Ukrainians have also been registering for temporary protection. Simultaneously these two trends are exerting a substantial strain on EU+ asylum and reception systems, pushing national authorities to their limits to accommodate and safeguard those in need. Applicants originate from a range of countries, including conflict affected states such as Syria and Ukraine, nations undergoing political and social turmoil such as Afghanistan, and those facing humanitarian crises such as Venezuela.

The EUAA provides guidance, training, situational awareness and operational support to EU member states with the aim of implementing world’s first regional asylum system, the Common European Asylum System.

In February 2023, the EU+ received 81 000 applications for asylum which is reduced slightly compared to recent months but represents a nontrivial increase by a third from February 2022. In fact, applications in February 2023 were at a level that has only been surpassed seven times since the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-2016, all of which took place during the last 12 months.

Context: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, the EU+ received approximately 60 000 monthly applications for asylum. Then last year, applications intensified to about 80 000 per month, and even more towards the end of the year, plus 4 million Ukrainians currently benefit from temporary protection after fleeing Russian aggression in Ukraine. Together these two parallel trends posed significant challenges to EU+ asylum reception and other authorities, so much so that by the end of the year the EUAA offered operational assistance to 14 Member States. Overall, these figures suggest persistent pressure on asylum and reception systems across Europe, with record numbers of asylum seekers lodging applications for international protection in the EU+. For an analysis of the whole of 2022, see our recent Overview of 2022.

In February 2023, Syrians and Afghans continued to lodge the most applications for asylum (9 500 and 9 300, respectively), both with notable increases compared to a year ago in February 2022 (+42 % and +15 %, respectively) but down compared to the peaks of 18 000 and 15 000 just five months ago in October 2022. Syrians and Afghans are also the most detected citizenships on the Western Balkan route towards the EU+.

Turks also lodged many more applications in February 2023 (5 200), more than double that of February 2022 but also down compared to a peak in November 2022 (8 300). Also important were Venezuelans and Colombians who continued to lodge many applications in February 2023 (both 5 200), a continuously increasing trend resulting in a level only surpassed once since at least 2014 (when EUAA data collection began). Iranian nationals (1 600) also lodged twice as many applications as in February 2022.

In 2022, Egyptians and Tunisians were the most commonly detected citizenships in the central Mediterranean, followed by Bangladeshis, Syrians and Afghans and at the same time these citizenships were also associated with high and increasing levels of asylum applications.

Context: In Syria, civilians are still exposed to armed conflicts and targeted attacks 12 years after the beginning of the conflict, while the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has had a major impact on the security and rights of women in Afghanistan. Venezuelan and Colombian applicants stand out because they have visa-free status and so are permitted to enter the EU’s Schengen area for short stays along with other passengers, even on flights from their home countries. The EUAA has published country of origin information reports with respect to military service and political dissent in the Russian Federation.

In February 2023, the recognition rate remained at 41 %, which is in line with the previous two months and also a year ago in February 2022. In fact, recognition rates for most of the main citizenships tend to remain fairly stable (Feb 2023: Syrians 95%, Iranians 45%, Bangladeshis 4%, Pakistanis 8%) with recent exceptions such as Turks for whom the recognition rate fell from 45% in February 2022 to 29% in February 2023, and Iraqis for whom the recognition rate increased from 25% in the first quarter of 2022 to 45% in the last quarter of 2022. However, by far the most dramatic change took place for Ukrainians, for whom the recognition rate jumped from 14% in February 2022 to 92% in February 2023 with positive decisions almost exclusively granting subsidiary protection.

Context: In 2022, the overall recognition rate fluctuated from 37 % to 45 %, at the same time EU+ asylum authorities issued 633 000 decisions at first instance that granted international protection to 253 000 persons including 102 000 Syrians (with a recognition rate of 94 %), 46 000 Afghans (54 %) and more than 9 400 Turks (38 %) and Somalis (59 %). All these citizenships were mostly granted refugee status with the exception of Syrians, almost two thirds of whom were granted subsidiary protection.

It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Afghanistan, tend to be granted national (rather than international) forms of protection which are unregulated at the EU level and therefore considered as negative decisions in these statistics. Also, these recognition rates are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and do not account for cases decided by judiciary and other authorities at second or higher instance.

At the end of February 2023, there were 650 000 cases awaiting a first instance decision which is up by 43 % compared to February 2022 and is more than at any other point since early 2017 when EU+ countries were still processing cases lodged during the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-2016. For the most part, the citizenships with the most applications lodged also have the most cases awaiting decisions. For example, in February 2023 Syrians and Afghans had by far the most pending cases (90 000 and 72 000, respectively), increasingly so for Syrians but more or less stable for Afghans. However, the number of pending cases for Turks, Colombians, Russians Peruvians and Egyptians increased consistently and rapidly throughout 2022, such that going into February 2023 their caseloads were at least double of those of a year earlier.

Context: Over the last 12 months, EU+ asylum authorities managed to increase their decision making, often with the operational support of the EUAA, but despite these efforts decision making has not kept pace with the surge of applications being lodged. As a consequence, the total number of cases awaiting a decision at the end of 2022 (including those in appeal or review) increased to 967 000.