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Latest Asylum Trends

February 2023

 

Key findings

  • Over the last 12 months (March 2022-February 2023), the EU+ has been receiving many more applications for asylum, especially last autumn when numbers were the highest since the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-2016.
  • In February 2023, some 81000 applications for asylum were lodged in the EU+, down from the previous month but still a third more than in February 2022.
  • In February 2023, Syrians, Afghans, Colombians, Venezuelans and Turks continued to lodge the most applications for asylum in the EU+, accounting for four applications in 10.
  • In February 2023, EU+ first instance authorities granted refugee status most often to Afghans, closely followed by Syrians, and subsidiary protection most often to Syrians.
  • At the end of February 2023, there were 650 000 cases awaiting first instance decisions which is the most since early 2017 when asylum authorities were still processing cases lodged during the refugee crises of 2015-2016.

Overview
EUAA Operations

In the second half of 2022 and in early 2023, a major increase in applications for international protection is occurring in the EU+, fuelled by conflict, political and social upheaval, economic hardships, and food insecurity. Applications have been at the highest levels since the so-called 2015-16 refugee crisis. However, this high level of asylum applications is not indicative of the total number of persons arriving with protection needs, because several million Ukrainians have also been registering for temporary protection. Simultaneously these two trends are exerting a substantial strain on EU+ asylum and reception systems, pushing national authorities to their limits to accommodate and safeguard those in need. Applicants originate from a range of countries, including conflict affected states such as Syria and Ukraine, nations undergoing political and social turmoil such as Afghanistan, and those facing humanitarian crises such as Venezuela.

The EUAA provides guidance, training, situational awareness and operational support to EU member states with the aim of implementing world’s first regional asylum system, the Common European Asylum System.

Applications

In February 2023, the EU+ received 81 000 applications for asylum which is reduced slightly compared to recent months but represents a nontrivial increase by a third from February 2022. In fact, applications in February 2023 were at a level that has only been surpassed seven times since the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-2016, all of which took place during the last 12 months.

Context: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, the EU+ received approximately 60 000 monthly applications for asylum. Then last year, applications intensified to about 80 000 per month, and even more towards the end of the year, plus 4 million Ukrainians currently benefit from temporary protection after fleeing Russian aggression in Ukraine. Together these two parallel trends posed significant challenges to EU+ asylum reception and other authorities, so much so that by the end of the year the EUAA offered operational assistance to 14 Member States. Overall, these figures suggest persistent pressure on asylum and reception systems across Europe, with record numbers of asylum seekers lodging applications for international protection in the EU+. For an analysis of the whole of 2022, see our recent Overview of 2022.

Countries of Origin

In February 2023, Syrians and Afghans continued to lodge the most applications for asylum (9 500 and 9 300, respectively), both with notable increases compared to a year ago in February 2022 (+42 % and +15 %, respectively) but down compared to the peaks of 18 000 and 15 000 just five months ago in October 2022. Syrians and Afghans are also the most detected citizenships on the Western Balkan route towards the EU+.

Turks also lodged many more applications in February 2023 (5 200), more than double that of February 2022 but also down compared to a peak in November 2022 (8 300). Also important were Venezuelans and Colombians who continued to lodge many applications in February 2023 (both 5 200), a continuously increasing trend resulting in a level only surpassed once since at least 2014 (when EUAA data collection began). Iranian nationals (1 600) also lodged twice as many applications as in February 2022.

In 2022, Egyptians and Tunisians were the most commonly detected citizenships in the central Mediterranean, followed by Bangladeshis, Syrians and Afghans and at the same time these citizenships were also associated with high and increasing levels of asylum applications.

Context: In Syria, civilians are still exposed to armed conflicts and targeted attacks 12 years after the beginning of the conflict, while the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has had a major impact on the security and rights of women in Afghanistan. Venezuelan and Colombian applicants stand out because they have visa-free status and so are permitted to enter the EU’s Schengen area for short stays along with other passengers, even on flights from their home countries. The EUAA has published country of origin information reports with respect to military service and political dissent in the Russian Federation.

Recognition Rates

In February 2023, the recognition rate remained at 41 %, which is in line with the previous two months and also a year ago in February 2022. In fact, recognition rates for most of the main citizenships tend to remain fairly stable (Feb 2023: Syrians 95%, Iranians 45%, Bangladeshis 4%, Pakistanis 8%) with recent exceptions such as Turks for whom the recognition rate fell from 45% in February 2022 to 29% in February 2023, and Iraqis for whom the recognition rate increased from 25% in the first quarter of 2022 to 45% in the last quarter of 2022. However, by far the most dramatic change took place for Ukrainians, for whom the recognition rate jumped from 14% in February 2022 to 92% in February 2023 with positive decisions almost exclusively granting subsidiary protection.

Context: In 2022, the overall recognition rate fluctuated from 37 % to 45 %, at the same time EU+ asylum authorities issued 633 000 decisions at first instance that granted international protection to 253 000 persons including 102 000 Syrians (with a recognition rate of 94 %), 46 000 Afghans (54 %) and more than 9 400 Turks (38 %) and Somalis (59 %). All these citizenships were mostly granted refugee status with the exception of Syrians, almost two thirds of whom were granted subsidiary protection.

It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Afghanistan, tend to be granted national (rather than international) forms of protection which are unregulated at the EU level and therefore considered as negative decisions in these statistics. Also, these recognition rates are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and do not account for cases decided by judiciary and other authorities at second or higher instance.

Pending Cases

At the end of February 2023, there were 650 000 cases awaiting a first instance decision which is up by 43 % compared to February 2022 and is more than at any other point since early 2017 when EU+ countries were still processing cases lodged during the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-2016. For the most part, the citizenships with the most applications lodged also have the most cases awaiting decisions. For example, in February 2023 Syrians and Afghans had by far the most pending cases (90 000 and 72 000, respectively), increasingly so for Syrians but more or less stable for Afghans. However, the number of pending cases for Turks, Colombians, Russians Peruvians and Egyptians increased consistently and rapidly throughout 2022, such that going into February 2023 their caseloads were at least double of those of a year earlier.

Context: Over the last 12 months, EU+ asylum authorities managed to increase their decision making, often with the operational support of the EUAA, but despite these efforts decision making has not kept pace with the surge of applications being lodged. As a consequence, the total number of cases awaiting a decision at the end of 2022 (including those in appeal or review) increased to 967 000.

Relevant publications
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Cover of Country guidance Afghanistan

Country Guidance Afghanistan

This country guidance document provides an in-depth analysis of the situation in Afghanistan, focussing on the key elements of qualification for international protection.

Country Guidance Syria

This country guidance document provides an in-depth analysis of the situation in Syria, focussing on the key elements of qualification for international protection.

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COI report Iran - Situation of Afghan refugees

Iran – Situation of Afghan refugees

This report describes the situation of Afghan refugees in Iran, who are be broadly divided into four main groups: Amayesh cardholders, Afghan passport holders with Iranian visas, undocumented Afghan refugees and Afghans registered during headcount exercises.
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2022_11_09_Forced_Displacement_Ukraine_Joint_Report_EUAA_IOM_OECD.pdf.pdf

Forced displacement from and within Ukraine

This report brings together the results of desk research and survey projects carried out by the EUAA, IOM and OECD to detail forced displacement from and within Ukraine.
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Cover of The Russian Federation – Military service

The Russian Federation – Military service

This report provides information regarding military service in the Russian Federation for international protection status determination, including refugee status and subsidiary protection.
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Cover of The future of International Protection in the EU+ in the next 10 years

The future of International Protection in the EU+ in the next 10 years

This report is the final output of a multi-phase foresight project undertaken by the EUAA to better understand the complex interactions that could shape the future of international protection in the European Union (EU).

 

Countries of Origin on Focus

Afghanistan

In February 2023 Afghans lodged 11 % of all applications in the EU+ (9 300) which is down from monthly peaks of 13 000-15 000 last autumn, but still up by 15 % compared to February 2022. In February 2023, EU+ asylum authorities issued 7 000 asylum decisions to Afghans, granting refugee status to 2 700 applicants and subsidiary protection to a further 800.

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These asylum decisions resulted in a recognition rate of 50 % of all first instance decisions issued but importantly, in this case positive decisions do not include a third of all decisions which granted a national form of protection.

In February 2023 (and in 2022), the vast majority of Afghans (more than 90 %) lodged applications for the first time in the receiving country, while 10 % of all applications were lodged by self-claimed unaccompanied minors, the most of any of the main nationalities, and accounting for about two fifths of all unaccompanied minor applications in the EU+. According to information shared publicly by Frontex, there have been far fewer detections of Afghans at the EU external border than asylum applications lodged which raises important questions about their displacement and mobility trends.

In January 2023, the EUAA published an in-depth analysis of the situation in Afghanistan, focussing on the key elements of qualification for international protection.

Syria

In February 2023, Syrians lodged 12 % of all applications in the EU+ (9 500) which is down from monthly peaks of 15 000-18 000 last autumn, but still up by 42 % compared with February 2022. Also in February 2023, Syrians were issued 9 700 decisions of which 2 600 granted refugee status compared to 6 600 which granted subsidiary protection together resulting in a recognition rate of 95 %.

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Following the outbreak of war in 2011, Syrians have consistently lodged the most applications for asylum in the EU+ every year since 2013. In 2022, the number of Syrians lodging applications in the EU+ intensified significantly, starting the year with 7 300 applications per month in the first quarter and finishing the year with double that number, 16 700 per month in the last quarter. According to information shared publicly by Frontex, Syrians were also increasingly detected at the external border in 2022, especially in the autumn, mostly on the Western Balkan route.

In February 2023, the EUAA and Member States published a joint assessment of the situation in Syria in relation to the applicable international and EU legislation on international protection.

Venezuela and Colombia

In February 2023, Venezuelans and Colombians, who can legally enter the EU’s Schengen area without a visa, continued to lodge increasing numbers of applications, together accounting for 13 % of all applications in the EU+ (5 200 each). Indeed, over many years there has been a steady trend, only interrupted by COVID-19, of more Venezuelans and Colombians applying for international protection in the EU+.

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At the same time, Venezuelans and Colombians were issued just 2 100 and 1 400 decisions, respectively, which collectively granted an EU regulated form of international protection to 200 applicants resulting in a joint recognition rate of just 6 %. Importantly, in February 2023 some 88 % of Venezuelan cases (and also some Colombian cases although numbers are less clear) resulted in a

national form of protection which permits them to remain in the EU. According to official Eurostat statistics, these two citizenships applied mostly in Spain, where national protection is granted in almost all cases.

Also important for these two citizenships is the steady rise in the number of pending cases at first instance which have increased significantly from 20 000 (Venezuela) and 14 000 (Colombia) in February 2022 to 30 000 and 42 000 in February 2023.

Definitions

Asylum applications include all persons who have lodged or have been included in an application for international protection as a family member in the reporting country during the reporting month.

EU+ refers to the 27 European Union Member States, plus Norway and Switzerland.

First instance decisions include all persons covered by decisions issued on granting EU-regulated international protection status (refugee or subsidiary protection) following a first time or repeated application for international protection in the first instance determination process.

Stock of pending cases includes all cases for which an asylum application has been lodged and are under consideration by the national authority responsible for the first instance determination of the application for international protection (until the first instance decision has been issued) at the end of the reference period (i.e. last day of the reference month). It refers to the “stock” of applications for which decisions at first instance are still pending.

The EU+ recognition rate includes EU-regulated forms of protection (refugee status and subsidiary protection) and excludes national protection forms (humanitarian reasons). It is calculated by dividing the number of positive first instance decisions (granting refugee status or subsidiary protection) by the total number of decisions issued

 

 

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