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Latest Asylum Trends

 

Key findings

  • Over the last 12 months (April 2022-March 2023), the EU+ has been receiving many more applications for asylum, especially last autumn when numbers were the highest since the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-2016.
  • In March 2023, some 92,000 applications for asylum were lodged in the EU+, up by more than 10% compared to both the previous month and March 2022.
  • In March 2023, Syrians, Afghans, Venezuelans, Colombians and Turks continued to lodge the most applications for asylum in the EU+, accounting for four applications in 10.

Overview
EUAA Operations

Over the last 12 months (April 2022-March 2023) there has been a major increase in applications for international protection in the EU+, fuelled by conflict, political and social upheaval, economic hardships and food insecurity. Applications have been at or approaching levels that resemble the so-called 2015-2016 refugee crisis. The high level of asylum applications underestimates the total number of persons arriving with protection needs, because 4 million newly arrived Ukrainians are at the same time also benefitting from temporary protection. Simultaneously, these two trends are exerting a substantial strain on EU+ asylum and reception systems, pushing national authorities to their limits to accommodate and safeguard those in need.

Asylum applicants originate from a range of countries, including conflict affected states such as Syria, countries undergoing political and social turmoil such as Afghanistan, and those facing humanitarian crises such as Venezuela. Russians have also been lodging more applications for asylum plus they are more frequently being granted protection.[1] [2] Turks on the other hand, are also lodging many more applications, but their recognition rate is declining – see charts in next sections.

The EUAA provides guidance, training, situational awareness and operational support to EU member states with the aim of implementing the Common European Asylum System.

Applications

In March 2023, the EU+ received 92,000 applications for asylum which is more than a 10% increase compared to both the previous month and the same month in 2022. In fact, applications in March 2023 were at a level that has only been surpassed four times since the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-2016, and all four of these occasions were in the last six months. These numbers demonstrate that there is a clear and current escalation in the number of asylum seekers presently lodging applications for protection in the EU+.

In March 2023, Syrians and Afghans continued to lodge the most applications for asylum (10,000 and 9,500, respectively), both with increases compared to a year ago in March 2022, especially Syrians (+29%) but both down compared to the peaks of 18,000 and 15,000 recorded in November 2022. In March 2023, more than half of all Syrian and Afghan applications were lodged in Germany, while both Syrians and Afghans were also among the most detected citizenships on the Western Balkan route towards the EU+. Turks also lodged many more applications in March 2023 (5,900), more than double that of March 2022 but also down compared to the recent peak in November 2022 (8,300). Again, more than half of all Turkish applications were lodged in Germany.

Unrelated to trends in irregular migration, there is a persistent pattern of increased asylum applications being lodged by Venezuelans and Colombians, and to a lesser extent, Peruvians who can enter the Schengen area without a visa.[3] These Latin Americans continued to submit increasing numbers of applications, even during the winter months such that in March 2023, they lodged record numbers of applications, with 6,500 and 6,000 and 2,200 apiece. The vast majority of these applications were lodged in Spain.

In 2022, Egyptians, Tunisians and Bangladeshis were commonly detected in the central Mediterranean, and at the same time these citizenships were, and still are, associated with high and increasing levels of asylum applications, especially in Italy where Pakistanis also lodge many applications.

Context: Immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, the EU+ received approximately 60,000 monthly applications for asylum. Then in 2022, once travel restrictions were things of the past, applications rose to about 70,000 per month, between May and July, and remained above the 90,000 mark for the rest of the year. In addition, approximately 4 million Ukrainians currently benefit from temporary protection in the EU after fleeing Russian aggression in Ukraine. Together these two parallel trends posed significant challenges to EU+ asylum, reception and other authorities, so much so that by the end of 2022 the EUAA was offering operational assistance to 14 Member States (read more). Overall, these figures, plus the continuation of the situation in the first quarter of 2023, suggest persistent pressure on asylum and reception systems across Europe, with record numbers of asylum seekers lodging applications for international protection in the EU+.

Countries of Origin

In March 2023, Syrians and Afghans continued to lodge the most applications for asylum (10,000 and 9,500, respectively) together representing one in five of all applications. These two citizenships have dominated applications for international protection in the EU+ for many years. More recently Venezuelans, Colombians and to a lesser extent also Peruvians have been lodging increasingly significant proportions of all applications in the EU+, together accounting for 16% in March 2023. Similarly, Turks now account for a non-trivial part of all applications in the EU+ (6%), as do Bangladeshis (4%).

Context: In Syria, civilians are still exposed to armed conflicts and targeted attacks 12 years after the beginning of the conflict, while the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has had a major impact on the security and rights of women in Afghanistan. Applicants from Venezuela and Colombia stand out because these two countries benefit from visa-free travel and so their nationals are permitted to enter the EU’s Schengen area for short stays along with other passengers, even on flights from their home countries.

Recognition Rates

In March 2023, the EU+ recognition rate shifted downwards by a couple of percentage points because Spain rapidly issued many (+12,000) first-instance decisions on its Venezuelan caseload. These decisions granted a national form of humanitarian protection rather than international protection and so are counted as negative asylum decisions in terms of EU-regulated statuses. As a result of this flurry of decision making, the recognition rate for the whole of the EU+ fell from 41% in February 2023 to 36% in March 2023. For most other EU+ countries the recognition rate remained stable.

Recognition rates for most of the main citizenships differ widely from each other but tend to remain fairly stable over time. For example, in March 2023, Syrians had a recognition rate of 96%, Iranians 46%, Bangladeshis 3% and Pakistanis 9%. However, there are recent exceptions, such as Turks for whom the recognition rate fell from 43% in March 2022 to 28% in March 2023, and Russians for whom the recognition rate increased from 27% in March 2022 to 38% in March 2023. However, by far the most dramatic changes in recent times took place for:

  • Ukrainians - the recognition rate jumped from 14% before the full-scale Russian invasion to 93% in April 2022. Since then, the Ukrainian recognition rate has remained above 90% with nearly all decisions granting subsidiary protection (rather than refugee status).
  • Afghans – immediately subsequent to the Taliban takeover in autumn 2021, the Afghan recognition rate jumped from its usual value of around 50% to more than 90%, before gradually returning to its original level.

Context: It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Afghanistan, tend to be granted national (rather than international) forms of protection which are unregulated at the EU level and are therefore considered as negative decisions in these statistics. Also, these recognition rates are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and do not account for cases decided by judiciary and other authorities at second or higher instance i.e. appeal and review.

Pending Cases

At the end of March 2023, some 665,000 cases were awaiting a first instance decision which is up by 32% compared to March 2022 and is more than at any other point since early 2017 when EU+ countries were still processing cases lodged during the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-2016. For the most part, the citizenships with the most applications lodged also have the most cases awaiting decisions. For example, in March 2023 Syrians and Afghans had by far the most pending cases (86,000 and 71,000, respectively), increasingly so for Syrians but more or less stable for Afghans. However, pending cases have more than doubled over the last year for Colombians and Peruvians (mostly in Spain), Turks and Russians (mostly in Germany), and Egyptians (mostly in Italy).

Context: Over the last 12 months, EU+ asylum authorities managed to increase their decision making, often with the operational support of the EUAA, but despite these efforts decision making has not kept pace with the surge of applications being lodged. As a consequence, the total number of cases awaiting a decision at the end of 2022 (including those in appeal or review) increased to 967,000.

Relevant publications
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Cover of Country guidance Afghanistan

Country Guidance Afghanistan

This country guidance document provides an in-depth analysis of the situation in Afghanistan, focussing on the key elements of qualification for international protection.

Country Guidance Syria

This country guidance document provides an in-depth analysis of the situation in Syria, focussing on the key elements of qualification for international protection.

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COI report Iran - Situation of Afghan refugees

Iran – Situation of Afghan refugees

This report describes the situation of Afghan refugees in Iran, who are be broadly divided into four main groups: Amayesh cardholders, Afghan passport holders with Iranian visas, undocumented Afghan refugees and Afghans registered during headcount exercises.
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2022_11_09_Forced_Displacement_Ukraine_Joint_Report_EUAA_IOM_OECD.pdf.pdf

Forced displacement from and within Ukraine

This report brings together the results of desk research and survey projects carried out by the EUAA, IOM and OECD to detail forced displacement from and within Ukraine.
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Cover of The Russian Federation – Military service

The Russian Federation – Military service

This report provides information regarding military service in the Russian Federation for international protection status determination, including refugee status and subsidiary protection.
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Cover of The future of International Protection in the EU+ in the next 10 years

The future of International Protection in the EU+ in the next 10 years

This report is the final output of a multi-phase foresight project undertaken by the EUAA to better understand the complex interactions that could shape the future of international protection in the European Union (EU).

 

Countries of Origin on Focus

Venezuela, Colombia and Peru

In March 2023, Venezuelans, Colombians and Peruvians continued to lodge increasing numbers of applications, together accounting for 16% of all applications in the EU+ (6,500, 6,100 and 2,200 respectively). Indeed, over many years there has been a steady trend, only interrupted by COVID-19, of these citizenships increasingly applying for international protection in the EU+. Importantly, this trend is unrelated to irregular migration because these citizenships can legally enter the EU’s Schengen area without a visa, even on flights from their home countries. This trend is also unique because the vast majority of the applications, decisions and pending cases are concentrated in a single country – Spain.

Read More

In 2022 Venezuelans received an average of 3,300 decisions per month, most of which were issued by Spain and most of which granted a national form of humanitarian protection rather than international protection. This means that the majority of Venezuelan applicants actually receive negative decisions when it comes to international protection per se. Taking these decisions into account, ups the recognition rate to 99% of all decisions on Venezuelan cases in March 2023.

In March 2023, six times as many decisions were issued to Venezuelans (12,700) compared to a month prior, plus their EU+ recognition rate for international protection fell from 5% in February 2023 to just 1% in March 2023.

Colombians and Peruvians tend to receive fewer decisions (Colombians: 1,700 per month in 2022, Peruvians 280) but consistent with Venezuelans, the vast majority of these decisions are issued by Spain. In March 2023, decision making for Colombian and Peruvian cases remained in line with recent months (Colombians received 2,280 decisions, Peruvians 550) with continued recognition rates of 5% and 3% for international protection.

Also important for these citizenships is the continuous rise in the number of pending cases at first instance which in March 2023 reached levels of 47,000 (Colombia) and 15,000 (Peru) whereas the surge in decision making resulted in the number of pending Venezuelan cases falling from nearly 40,000 in November 2022 to 32,000 in March 2023.

Syria

In March 2023, Syrians lodged 10,000 applications in the EU+ (11% of the total) which is down from monthly peaks of 15,000-18,000 last autumn, but still up by 29% compared with March 2022. Also in March 2023, Syrians were issued 11,500 decisions of which 2,700 granted refugee status compared to 8,400 which granted subsidiary protection together resulting in a stable recognition rate of 96%.

Read More

Following the outbreak of war in 2011, Syrians have consistently lodged the most applications for asylum in the EU+ every year since 2013 (link). In 2022, the number of Syrians lodging applications in the EU+ intensified significantly, starting the year with 7,300 applications per month in the first quarter and finishing the year with double that number, 16,700 per month in the last quarter.

According to information shared publicly by Frontex, Syrians were also increasingly detected at the external border in 2022, especially in the autumn, mostly on the Western Balkan route.

In February 2023, the EUAA and Member States published a joint assessment of the situation in Syria in relation to the applicable international and EU legislation on international protection (link).

Afghanistan

In March 2023 Afghans lodged 9,500 applications in the EU+ (10% of the total) which is down from monthly peaks of 13,000-15,000 last autumn, but is more or less stable compared to March 2022. In March 2023, EU+ asylum authorities issued 8,200 asylum decisions to Afghans, granting refugee status to 3,600 applicants and subsidiary protection to a further 950. Nearly half of all decisions to Afghans were issued by Germany.

Read More

These asylum decisions resulted in an EU+ recognition rate of 56% of all first instance decisions based on international protection. It can be noted that in this case positive decisions do not include a quarter of all decisions which were Germany granting a national form of protection. Taking these decisions into account, ups the recognition rate to 82% of all decisions on Afghan cases in March 2023.

In March 2023 (and in 2022), the vast majority of Afghans (more than 90%) lodged applications for the first time in the receiving country, while 10% of all Afghan applications were lodged by self-claimed unaccompanied minors, the most of any of the main nationalities, and accounting for about a third of all unaccompanied minor applications in the EU+.

According to information shared publicly by Frontex, there have been far fewer detections of Afghans at the EU external border than asylum applications lodged which raises important questions about their displacement and mobility trends.

In January 2023, the EUAA published an in-depth analysis of the situation in Afghanistan, focussing on the key elements of qualification for international protection.

Definitions

Asylum applications include all persons who have lodged or have been included in an application for international protection as a family member in the reporting country during the reporting month.

EU+ refers to the 27 European Union Member States, plus Norway and Switzerland.

First instance decisions include all persons covered by decisions issued on granting EU-regulated international protection status (refugee or subsidiary protection) following a first time or repeated application for international protection in the first instance determination process.

Stock of pending cases includes all cases for which an asylum application has been lodged and are under consideration by the national authority responsible for the first instance determination of the application for international protection (until the first instance decision has been issued) at the end of the reference period (i.e. last day of the reference month). It refers to the “stock” of applications for which decisions at first instance are still pending.

The EU+ recognition rate includes EU-regulated forms of protection (refugee status and subsidiary protection) and excludes national protection forms (humanitarian reasons). It is calculated by dividing the number of positive first instance decisions (granting refugee status or subsidiary protection) by the total number of decisions issued

 

 

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