2.2.4. Civilian casualties

As of December 2024, there were no reliable statistics available on direct and indirect conflict deaths. For more information on the difficulty of reporting and obtaining data in the conflict see sections 1.1.4 Security incidents and civilian deaths estimates and section ‎1.3.2. Communication and media presence.

A November 2024 report by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) found that in Khartoum State alone, 90 % of fatalities went unrecorded, mainly attributing this to the lack in infrastructure needed to document the data.727 Based on this report, Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) argued that taking Khartoum’s estimated 90 % as an indication, the death toll especially in Darfur was probably far higher than recorded.728 According to AOAV, violence accounted for 69% of deaths in Darfur.729 

Among the most significant security incidents affecting civilians were airstrikes and clashes by conflict parties.730 Sources reported on SAF bombardment of civilian areas causing civilian casualties across Darfur, such as the bombardment of a school,731 and areas near an IDP camp and a hospital732 as well as state buildings and residential areas in Nyala,733 a livestock market and an area near a hospital in Saraf Omra.734 RSF shelling of residential areas reportedly caused casualties, especially in El Fasher.735 According to estimates by OHCHR, the siege of El Fasher ongoing since May 2024, as of December 2024 had reportedly caused 782 deaths and 1 143 cases of injured civilians; according to its own statement this was not a comprehensive figure.736 This death toll was described by Sudanese political analyst Kholood Khair as a ‘gross undercount’.737 Ayin Network reported that the town of Koma in North Darfur had been subjected to 52 SAF airstrikes between March and November 2024 resulting in 132 fatalities, with one strike in October alone killing 61 people and injuring 207, according to local residents.738 The Yale School of Public Health – Humanitarian Research Lab based on open source research reported that the same airstrike, which occurred on 4 October, had killed at least 65 people and wounded about 200 more, describing it as one of the deadliest reported airstrike in the ongoing conflict.739 Kabkabiya, another town in North Darfur, was reportedly hit by 20 air raids between April and November 2024, resulting in the death of 30 civilians.740 In December 2024, Zamzam IDP camp south of El Fasher was subjected to daily artillery shelling attributed to the RSF for two weeks, leaving 80 people killed and up to 400 injured.741

In August, Zamzam IDP Camp was classified as experiencing famine, while nearby Abou Shouk and Al Salam IDP camps were said to possibly experience famine.742 These three camps together sheltered up to 600 000 IDPs, with a risk of famine also extending to the rest of El Fasher with another 800 000 inhabitants.743 An investigation by Reuters revealed that the severe level of malnutrition at Zamzam camp, housing an estimated half a million IDPs, had previously been underestimated due to the fact that indicators did not sufficiently take the conflict into consideration as a driver of famine. Meanwhile, the violence, RSF roadblocks as well as communication blackouts reportedly made it difficult to conduct surveys necessary for food insecurity assessment.744 An August 2024 IPC report explained that, due to the volatile situation around El Fasher, the Famine Review Committee (FRC) was not able to get any data indirect deaths related to malnutrition or lack of health services in Zamzam IDP camp. The estimated increase of 26% in graves registered by satellite images between 18 December 2023 and 3 May 2024 was the only evidence available indicating an increase in fatalities.745 Sortony camp, 110km west of El Fasher, housing over 42 000 IDPs, was reported by local humanitarian workers to be in similar conditions as Zamzam camp.746

From 1 February 2024 to 30 November 2024, ACLED observed 1 024 security incidents in the Darfur region with a total estimate of 4 483 fatalities.747

Figure 9: Fatalities as a result of armed conflict in Darfur region, 1 February 2024 – 30 November 2024, based on ACLED data748