According to International Monetary Fund's (IMF) estimates for 2024, Sudan is projecting a negative 20.3 % for its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and an inflation rate of 242.2 %.538 According to the Finance Minister of Sudan, due to the armed conflict, state revenue fell over 80 %.539 The GDP per capita is 606 USD dollars540 and since the start of the conflict, the currency has depreciated over 300 %.541
A report on the socioeconomic impact of the conflict on urban households produced by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP),542 indicated that the conflict has 'led to a significant deterioration of economic activity'.543 Armed actions in the context of the current conflict have damaged the infrastructure, including roads and supply chains, impacting Sudan's ability to conduct foreign trade and exports.544 Trade with neighbouring countries such as Chad and Libya has slumped 'dramatically'.545
The banking system is facing a liquidity crisis.546 Sources indicated that banking operations, most of them based in Khartoum, have been suspended for the most part due to insecurity, power outages, and looting.547 According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), '[b]lockages in banking transactions, the lack of liquidity and transportation disruptions are contributing to a rise in basic food prices'.548 A human rights analyst indicated that:
'since there is no reliable banking system, people use mobile banking, but that also depends on the diaspora and the capacity to send money. In Port Sudan, for example, Western Union works, but that depends on the access to internet. In areas in central Sudan, for example, there is no internet, and using Starlink is very risky because the RSF controls communications in that area, and those who have family abroad are exposed to kidnapping from the RSF if their communications via Starlink get hacked by the RSF. Some cases of kidnappings have taken place after communicating through Starlink and the RSF gets knowledge of that information'.549
According to the IFPRI and UNDP survey, about 24 % of households reported receiving assistance, including from family members and other individuals (14.6 %), international humanitarian organisations (4.6 %), domestic humanitarian organisation (1.6 %), and national government agencies (1 %).550
IFPRI and UNDP report indicated that 69.9 % of urban households are headed by women, and that out of that number, the following statistics are provided:
- marital status: married (41.6 %), widowed (22.5 %), single (19.1 %), and separated (16.8 %);
- education: 'high' (61.8 %), 'medium' (27.2 %), and 'low' (11 %);
- employment status: no employment/no income (36.4 %), self-employed (28.9 %), full-time worker (19.1 %), and part-time worker (10.4 %).551
- 538
IMF, World Economic Outlook (October 2024): Sudan, n.d., url
- 539
Africanews, Sudan's economy contracts 40% as war rages, 13 August 2024, url
- 540
IMF, World Economic Outlook (October 2024): Sudan, n.d., url
- 541
IFPRI and UNDP, The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey, November 2024, url, p. 3
- 542
The report is based on a survey of 3 000 households that took place between 24 May 2024 and July 2024. The survey was conducted by phone; however, the authors caution that '[i]n Sudan, where mobile phone penetration is not universal, phone surveys inherently exclude households without access to cell phones, which are often the poorest and most marginalized. This exclusion is likely exacerbated during the current crisis, as infrastructure damage and economic instability may further limit access to functioning mobile networks and charged devices. This potential sampling bias significantly affects the generalizability of findings, particularly for indicators that are closely tied to socioeconomic status'. IFPRI and UNDP, The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey, November 2024, url, p. 6
- 543
IFPRI and UNDP, The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey, November 2024, url, p. 2
- 544
Africanews, Sudan's economy contracts 40% as war rages, 13 August 2024, url; IFPRI and UNDP, The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey, November 2024, url, p. 3
- 545
Africanews, Sudan's economy contracts 40% as war rages, 13 August 2024, url; IFPRI and UNDP, The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey, November 2024, url, p. 3
- 546
Africanews, Sudan's economy contracts 40% as war rages, 13 August 2024, url
- 547
IFPRI and UNDP, The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey, November 2024, url, p. 59; IRC, Watchlist Crisis Alert: Sudan — A Catastrophe the World is Choosing to Ignore, 25 June 2024, url, p. 15
- 548
IRC, Watchlist Crisis Alert: Sudan — A Catastrophe the World is Choosing to Ignore, 25 June 2024, url, p. 15
- 549
Human rights analyst, interview with EUAA, 10 December 2024
- 550
IFPRI and UNDP, The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey, November 2024, url, p. 63
- 551
IFPRI and UNDP, The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey, November 2024, url, pp. 10-11