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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

2023_CG_AFG_Map

[Main COI reference: Security 2022, 4.19, pp. 142-146]

In a January 2022 report, the UN Secretary General identified Kunar Province as one of the four most conflict-affected provinces in Afghanistan in the period between 19 August and 31 December 2021.

According to an independent Afghan analyst consulted by EUAA in December 2021, ISKP continued to have its strongest foothold in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces. It was also reported that Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was assumed to have its main presence in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces.

During the reference period, ACLED recorded 110 security incidents in Kunar Province (average of 1.8 incidents per week) of which 47 were battles, 48 explosions/remote violence, and 15 cases of violence against civilians.

Most incidents were attributed to ISKP and unidentified armed group(s). ACLED also reported some security incidents in the province where military forces of Pakistan and TTP were involved. According to ACLED, the security incidents in the province resulted in 130 fatalities, which included combatants and non-combatants.

UCDP recorded 40 security incidents in the period between 16 August 2021 and 22 October, resulting in 16 civilian deaths. Compared to population data from UNOCHA, this represented two civilian deaths per 100 000 inhabitants.

Examples of incidents included battles between ISKP and Taliban forces and between Pakistani military forces and Taliban forces, which caused casualties among civilians, including women and children, such as the killing of two women and three children in a shelling by Pakistani military forces in Shigal District on 15 April 2022 and the injury of six children in a shelling in Nari District a month later. There were also reports on targeted attacks of civilians by unknown gunmen, and use of explosive devices by unidentified armed groups in targeted bomb attacks, including IEDs attached to vehicles, or indiscriminate IED explosions, comprising roadside bomb explosions and explosive remnants of war, resulting in civilian casualties, including children, such as the killing of at least four members of a family, including two or three children in a grenade attack on their house in Nari District.

98 persons were displaced due to conflict within Sarkani District in September 2021. No displacement has been registered from January to the beginning of May 2022. IOM identified 35 497 IDP arrivals in Kunar Province in the period between August 2021 and December 2021. In the same period, 3 921 IDPs returned to Kunar.

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that indiscriminate violence is taking place in the province of Kunar, however not at a high level. Moreover, a significant proportion of the civilian fatalities in the province is considered to be the result of security incidents of a targeted nature. Therefore, a high level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.