COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: May 2024
[Main COI reference: COI Update 2024, 4., pp. 4-7; Annex 1, pp. 16-18; Country Focus 2023, 2.1., pp. 29-40; COI Update 2022, 3., p. 10; Security 2022, 3., pp. 58-78].
Data concerning this indicator are primarily based on ACLED reporting from 1 July 2022 to 12 January 2024, unless differently specified. Relevant reporting from other sources, including the UN Secretary General and UCDP, is also noted.
Where ACLED data on fatalities is included, this refers to both combatants and non-combatants. Such data is included primarily to indicate the intensity of confrontations and other security incidents rather than their direct impact on the civilian population.
According to the UN’s Secretary General, in the months following the Taliban takeover (19 August – 31 December 2021) the number of armed clashes, airstrikes and attacks with IEDs decreased of more than 91 % compared to the same period in 2020. This decrease continued in 2022 and 2023, with two peaks of recorded incidents in July - October 2022, and another, smaller, peak in August 2023, mainly in Badakhshan and Takhar. The UN reported a continued reduction of armed conflict levels in 2023. The number of events recorded by ACLED as of September 2023, compared to the same period in 2022, constituted a decrease of 35 % (from 1 979 to 689 events) while UCDP data for the same periods indicated a 48 % decrease (from 720 to 347 events). ACLED documented in total 1 826 security incidents during the reference period of 1 July 2022 - 12 January 2024. Kabul was the province with most recorded events, followed by Takhar, Panjshir, Badakhshan and Baghlan.
Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2023, Kabul was also the province where ACLED recorded most cases of explosions/remote violence, namely 55 out of 254 explosions/remote violence in Afghanistan, mostly with IED and other explosives directed against both Taliban and civilian targets. Some attacks were claimed or attributed to ISKP, while in other cases the actor was unknown.
ACLED recorded in total 118 events involving ISKP during the period 1 July 2022 – 30 September 2023. Most ACLED events in this period involving ISKP were recorded in Kabul (36 events) and in the eastern provinces of Kunar (18) and Nangarhar (15). According to USIP, 72 % of ISKP attacks in 2022 targeted the Taliban. ISKP has also claimed attacks against foreign targets. Nevertheless, the deadliest IED and suicide attacks by ISKP have been directed against certain ethno-religious groups, in particular the Shia Hazara community.
In the period of 1 July 2022 - 30 September 2023, most battles (238) were recorded in Takhar, followed by Panjshir, Badakhshan and Baghlan. The actors involved were mainly the Taliban clashing with the AFF or NRF, and with unidentified armed groups. Over 60 % of the events in these provinces took place in the period July-October 2022. A total of 41 battles took place in Kabul and were mainly related to clashes of Taliban with NRF and AFF or with ISKP.
The provinces where most security incidents were recorded in the reporting period between 1 July 2022 and 12 January 2024 included Kabul (245), Takhar (177), Panjshir (154), Badakhshan (107), Baghlan (107), Kandahar (93), Nangarhar (90), Parwan (79), Balkh (68), Kapisa (65), Herat (54), Kunar (51), Ghazni (50), and Helmand (48).
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