4.3.1. Armed conflict (international or internal)

Table of contents

COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: October 2025

The analysis below is based on the following EUAA COI report and query: Security 2025, 1.; COI Update 2025, 1.; Country Guidance should not be referred to as a source of COI.

 

Throughout the reference period, Somalia continued to be affected by various conflicts. The main conflicts are outlined below:

  • Al-Shabaab – anti Al-Shabaab armed conflict: With the support of the international coalition of ATMIS/AUSSOM, Kenya, Ethiopia and the United States of America, the FGS continued its offensive against Al-Shabaab which, in response, staged high profile attacks, especially in Mogadishu. In South-Central Somalia, particularly, Al-Shabaab maintained or regained control over large swathes of territory. This remains the main conflict driver in Somalia.

  • The inter and intra-clan rivalries: The second conflict driver and source of insecurity in the country is the continuation of clan rivalries and intra-clan conflicts, which has led to an increase of relevant security incidents and estimated fatalities across the country. The existence of clan militias has been reported throughout Somalia, including Puntland and Somaliland. In some cases, clan rivalries have escalated to armed confrontations, therefore taking the form of an armed conflict in the meaning of Article 15(c) QD/QR.

  • SNA – SSC-Khatumo conflict: The major conflict that erupted in February 2023 between SNA and SSC-Khatumo forces continued intermittently throughout the reference period, leading to the establishment of the autonomous SSC-Khatumo administration in the contested regions between Puntland and Somaliland.

  • Anti-ISS armed conflict: The operations of Somali and US security forces against ISS continued, especially in Bari region, with the associated security incidents spiking during the first quarter of 2025. The Hilaac offensive, backed by UAE and US airstrikes, expelled ISIS from the Al-Miskaad mountains. By late July 2025, the operation entered its final phase to eliminate remaining fighters and prepare for Operation Onkod against Al-Shabaab, while US forces captured ISIS’s Somalia finance chief.

 

Somalia is currently affected by multiple overlapping conflicts, in the meaning of Article 15(c) QD/QR. These conflicts affect different areas in Somalia at different degrees. See more under 4.3.4. Indiscriminate violence.