COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: October 2025
This sub-profile refers to electoral delegates, meaning those individuals in Somalia, mostly elders, who are the persons responsible to select members of the federal and state legislatures on behalf of their communities in indirect elections, and focuses on their risk of persecution by Al-Shabaab.
The analysis below is based on the following EUAA COI reports: Country Focus 2025, 1.6.2.; Targeting 2021, 6.4.; Country Guidance should not be referred to as a source of COI.
Step 1: Do the reported acts amount to persecution?
Acts to which individuals under this profile could be exposed, are of such severe nature that they would amount to persecution. More specifically, Al-Shabaab has carried out killings by shooting and ‘issued warnings’ to elders who were potential participants in the polls as delegates.
Step 2: What is the level of risk of persecution?
In South-Central Somalia, a well-founded fear of persecution would in general be substantiated for electoral delegates , given the operational capacity of Al-Shabaab as well as their prominent profile. Al-Shabaab considers the participation in any election as a crime against Islam and has targeted electoral delegates, both in pre-election and post-election periods, with most instances taking place in South-Central Somalia in the reference period and involving shooting of electoral delegates coming from various corners of the country.
In Puntland, Al-Shabaab has lower operational capacity, with stronger presence in the northern parts (see map). Therefore, the home area of the applicant should be taken into account as a risk-impacting circumstance.
In Somaliland, Al-Shabaab has very limited operational capacity and in the reference period no incidents against electoral delegates were reported. Therefore, a well-founded fear of persecution for electoral delegates in Somaliland would in general not be substantiated.
Step 3: Is there a ground for persecution?
Where well-founded fear of persecution is substantiated for an applicant under this profile, this is highly likely to be for reasons of religion and/or political opinion, as Al-Shabaab views the participation in any election as a crime against Islam and/or electoral delegates as their political enemies.