1. Recent developments in Syria

COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: June 2025

In late November 2024, Syrian rebels, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), initiated a significant offensive, culminating in the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024. The rebels swiftly captured key cities, including Aleppo, Hama, and Damascus, leading to the end of the Assad family's decades-long rule, with the family fleeing abroad.

A transitional government, formed by HTS and other militias, pledged to stabilise the nation and draft a new constitution within three years. Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, was appointed transitional president on January 29, 2025, and outlined plans to promote reconciliation and inclusivity while emphasising the importance of preserving national unity. In late January, the transitional administration annulled Syria’s 2012 constitution and disbanded the former government’s parliament, military, and security agencies. Al-Sharaa announced the creation of an interim legislative council and declared a general amnesty for Syrian army soldiers, abolished conscription, and initiated a reintegration process for former government and military personnel, including high-ranking officials.

On 13 March, Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa signed a constitutional declaration outlining a five-year transitional period. The declaration stipulates that Islam is the religion of the president and Islamic jurisprudence the primary source of legislation. It also guarantees judicial independence, freedom of expression and media, and political, educational, and labour rights for women. On 29 March, Sharaa announced the formation of a transitional government composed of 23 ministers from diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds, including Alawite, Christian, Druze, and Kurdish representatives. One woman was appointed to the post of Minister of Social Affairs and Labour. The transitional government does not have a prime minister, and Sharaa is expected to lead the executive branch in his role as interim president (6). The government is dominated by ministers associated with HTS. It also includes ministers who served in the Assad government before 2011. No member of the Democratic Autonomous Administration or North and East Syria (DAANES) or the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is in the cabinet (7).

Syria's political future remains uncertain due to challenges such as ethnic tensions and the integration of various militias. Reports of attacks on ethnic and religious minorities, particularly in the coastal region and the provinces of Homs and Hama, have increased. In the north, factions vie for influence and control, with ongoing clashes between Turkish-backed militias under the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In March 2025, SDF leaders agreed to integrate their forces and institutions into the new Syrian government. Previously, the interim government had dissolved all opposition parties and military groups by the end of January. The northeast has seen attacks by the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) against SDF troops.

The civil war and rebel offensive have caused significant internal displacement (see Displacement and return movements). The transitional administration has initiated economic reforms, including public sector employee reductions, tax system reforms, and reopening border crossings. The United States and the EU Council have lifted various sanctions to facilitate humanitarian aid and economic recovery.

The humanitarian situation in Syria remains extremely critical. After more than 13 years of civil war, around 90% of the population lives in poverty and is largely dependent on humanitarian aid. Half of the country's infrastructure, including hospitals, schools and water supply systems, has been severely damaged or destroyed. Access to basic services, such as medical care and education, is limited in many areas. International organisations such as the United Nations and NGOs are providing emergency aid, but financial resources are limited. Ultimately, the long-term stabilisation and reconstruction of Syria depend on political developments and international support.