Latest Asylum Trends - midterm review

During the initial six months of 2023, the EU+ received an exceptional 519,000 asylum applications, marking the highest figure since 2016 and constituting the second-highest count on record. This follows a clear, upward trend which has been evident since the COVID-19 lockdowns of 2020.

Historically, the volume of applications tends to be higher in the second half of the year. If this pattern holds, by the end of the year, more than 1 million asylum applications will be received by EU+ countries 2023.

The upswing in applications is particularly pronounced for some specific citizenships, use the interactive chart for more details:

• Syrian applications in the first half of 2023 exceeded any comparable period since the 2015-16 refugee crisis.
• Subsequent to the refugee crisis of 2015-16, Afghan applications fell and remained steady at roughly 50,000 per year. Since COVID-19, Afghan applications have been climbing steadily to the second highest ever level during the first half of 2023.
• In the first half of 2023, Venezuelans, Colombians, and Peruvians all lodged record-high numbers of applications for this time of year, and are expected to lodge the most-ever applications by year's end.
• In 2022, Turkish applications exceeded any previous year by more than double. However, 2023 is projected to see an even greater number of Turkish applications.
• Iranian and Russian applications more or less doubled compared to the same period in 2022.
• In 2022, Pakistanis lodged the most applications since 2016. This level is however likely to be outpaced in 2023.
• Moroccans and Bangladeshis lodged record high numbers of applications in 2022, with 2023 so-far projected to continue this upward trend.
• In the first half of 2023, Ivorians lodged a record number of applications for this time of year, in fact nearly as many as in the whole of 2022.

In the initial half of 2023, Syrians and Afghans submitted the most asylum applications, accounting for 67,000 and 55,000 requests respectively, which together encompassed nearly a quarter (24%) of all applications. For over a decade, these two countries have consistently been among the main countries of origin of applicants for international protection in the EU+.

Recent years have seen a notable increase in applications from Venezuelans, Colombians, and to a lesser extent, Peruvians, together constituting 16% of all submissions in the first half of 2023. Concurrently, Turks also formed a significant portion of the applicant pool in the EU+, contributing to 7% of all applications. Likewise, Bangladeshis and Pakistanis comprised noticeable fractions, submitting 4% and 3% of all applications, respectively.

Recognition rates, the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status or subsidiary protection, are subject to change over time, reflecting the shifting profiles and protection requirements of the applicants, as well as national policies on specific profiles and nationalities. Following the refugee crisis of 2015-16, the EU+ recognition rate has swung between 30% and 40%. Post COVID-19, this rate has increased from 32% in 2020, to 34% in 2021, and further to 40% in 2022—a rate which continued throughout the first half of 2023 with 41 %.

Naturally, the protection needs and recognition rates exhibit substantial variation between different nationalities. For instance, during the first half of 2023, Syrians had a recognition rate of 95%, while the rates for Afghans, Ivorians, and Moroccans stood at 58%, 28%, and 7%, respectively. Though the recognition rates for each citizenship generally remain stable over time, notable exceptions persist:

• Syrians had a recognition rate of 94% during the first half of 2023—the highest in six years—but it is important to note that a growing percentage are granted subsidiary protection rather than refugee status.
• The Afghan recognition rate leapt from 53% in 2020 to 66% in 2021 following the Taliban takeover. However, the rate slightly declined to under 60% in 2022 and the first half of 2023, while at the same time an increasing portion of Afghan applications were granted refugee status.
• The Turkish recognition rate, which increased between 2016 and 2019, has since been on a steady decline, plunging from 54% in 2019 to 28% in the first half of 2023.
• For years, Russians had a recognition rate hovering around 20%, but this hiked to 30% in 2022 following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and further increased to 35% in the first half of 2023.
• Also on the increase in recent years, Iranians are now granted international protection at a rate of 47% up from 32% in 2020.
• The Ukrainian recognition has surged over the last couple of years—rising from roughly 12% in 2021 to 86% in 2022, and further still to 94% during the first half of 2023 primarily through decisions granting subsidiary protection. Note that most Ukrainians register for temporary protection rather than applying for international protection per se (see Providing Temporary Protection to Displaced Persons from Ukraine: A Year in Review and here).

Context: It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Afghanistan, tend to be granted national (rather than international) forms of protection which are unregulated by the EU and are therefore considered as negative asylum decisions in these statistics. Additionally, these recognition rates are calculated based on first instance decisions made by asylum authorities. They do not encompass decisions issued by judiciary and other authorities at the second instance or higher, such as in appeals and reviews. In addition, approximately 4 million Ukrainians currently benefit from temporary protection in the EU+ after fleeing Russian aggression in Ukraine. Together these two parallel trends pose significant challenges to EU+ asylum, reception and other authorities, so much so that in June 2023, the EUAA was offering operational assistance to 13 Member States.

At the end of June 2023, some 682,000 cases were awaiting a first instance decision which is up by 34% compared to a year ago at the end of June 2022. Notwithstanding April 2023, this number of pending cases is by far more than at any other point since 2017, when receiving countries were still processing applications lodged during the refugee crisis of 2015-16.

For the most part, citizenships lodging the most applications are also those with the most cases awaiting decisions. For instance, Syrians and Afghans had the most pending cases at the end of June 2023, with 87,000 and 69,000 cases, respectively. The number of pending cases for Syrians has surged by 45% compared to June 2022, while the number for Afghans has remained relatively stable. However, pending cases have more than doubled over the past year for Colombians and Peruvians (predominantly in Spain), Turks and Iranians (primarily in Germany), and Egyptians (mostly in Italy).

Context: EU+ asylum authorities often rely on the operational support of the EUAA to increase their decision making. However, despite these efforts, the speed of decision-making has not kept pace with the surge of applications being lodged. Consequently, the total number of cases awaiting a decision at the end of February 2023, including those in appeal or review, increased to 920,000.