Key findings
1. Due to winter weather, a shorter month and some incomplete data, it is estimated that EU+ asylum authorities received some 85,000 asylum applications in February 2024.
2. In February 2024, Syrians continued to lodge by far the most applications, 16% of all applications lodged in the EU+ and up by 17% compared to a year earlier.
3. In February 2024, Germany maintained its position as the foremost destination for asylum seekers in the EU+, receiving 21,000 applications or 30% of all applications lodged in the EU+.
4. At the end of February 2024, there were about 4.4 million beneficiaries of temporary protection in the EU+ who fled Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion. Notably, Czechia hosted the most beneficiaries per capita, followed by Lithuania, Poland and Estonia
Trends
Over the last 2 years, EU+ countries (EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland) have seen asylum applications at levels above 100,000 applications for several months. This intensification took place in the autumns of 2022 and 2023, and was particularly acute in October 2023 when 123,000 applications were lodged, echoing the refugee crisis of 2015-16. In fact, by the end of 2023, some 1.1 million applications had been lodged in the EU+ marking an 18% increase from the previous year, and the most for seven years. In addition to these new asylum applications, in February 2024 around 4.4 million displaced persons from Ukraine were receiving Temporary Protection, thereby adding a significant layer to the overall count of individuals arriving in the EU+ with protection needs.
These concurrent trends - the surge in asylum applications and the influx of displaced persons from Ukraine - are exerting immense strain on the EU+ asylum and reception systems. National authorities are being pushed to their limits in their efforts to accommodate and safeguard those in need.
The winter months of late 2023 and early 2024 have seen a decline in asylum applications, most notably in February with some 71,000 applications received in reporting countries. This decrease can be attributed to three primary factors. First, February is the shortest month of the year with fewer operational days for asylum offices to be open and processing applications. Second, the winter months typically disincentivise journeys towards the EU+, especially those involving perilous sea crossings. Lastly, Spain was unable to report their applications data in time for this analysis, thereby artificially deflating the apparent number of applications lodged in February 2024. It is estimated that some 85,000 applications were lodged across all EU+ countries in February 2024.
In February 2024, Syrians, consistently at the forefront of asylum applications in the EU+, submitted 11,000 applications, down by a significant margin compared to the seven-year peak of October 2023 but still up by 17% compared to February 2023. For more information, read the latest EUAA reports on Syria and its Security situation. Afghans remained the second largest nationality group despite lodging 9% fewer applications (8,500) in February 2024 compared to a year previously. Read an EUAA report on the general security and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, as well as on the targeting of certain individuals. Meanwhile, Turkish nationals, who in the autumn of 2023 sought protection in the EU+ in unprecedented numbers, lodged fewer applications in December 2023 and early 2024, but with 5,000 applications in February 2024, they nevertheless made up the third-largest group.
These three nationalities share key similarities. In 2023, they were the most common nationalities detected crossing the EU external border via the Western Balkan route. Also, Germany continued to be the primary destination for these three nationalities in February 2024, receiving more than half of all Syrian, nearly two-thirds of all Turkish, and more than a third of Afghan applications. This trend underscores Germany’s role as a key destination within the EU+.
The definition of statelessness varies across EU+ countries (read EUAA Asylum report), affecting data quality, situational awareness and preparedness. Despite these challenges, it is clear that in the autumn of 2023 many more Palestinians suddenly lodged asylum applications in the EU+, particularly in Greece. However, this was apparently short-lived because applications subsequently fell to just 700 in February 2024 despite the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
In a trend seemingly detached from irregular migration, there has over recent years been a high volume of asylum applications from Venezuelans and Colombians, and to a lesser extent, Peruvians. These nationalities are visa-exempt which means that they can enter the EU+ on flights from their home countries. At this time, it is not possible to provide an update on this situation in February 2024 due to missing data from Spain where the vast majority of Latin American applications tend to be lodged. Similarly, Senegalese nationals arriving and applying for asylum in the Spanish Canary Islands in late 2023 and January 2024, cannot be fully assessed for February 2024.
Main citizenships
To eliminate month-to-month fluctuations, the above chart offers a comprehensive overview of the asylum application trends of the top 20 nationalities in February 2024, over the last 12 months (yellow) in comparison to the preceding 12 months (blue). Importantly, Spain applications are missing for February 2024 so figures for some nationalities such as Colombians and Peruvians are underestimated and Venezuelans are not even included in this group of main citizenships. Syrians and Afghans lodged the most applications for asylum during both these time periods. However, Syrian applications saw a considerable increase (+32%), whereas Afghan applications declined by 18%.
Most citizenships in the chart exhibited an upward change in their application numbers, which is to some extent a statistical artefact because nationalities with declining trends are more likely to fall out of the top 20, while those with increasing trends tend to rise into the ranking. Nevertheless, it is notable that Ivorians lodged very nearly twice as many applications in the 12 months leading up to February 2024, and Guineans, Turks and Peruvians all lodged applications that increased by more than 60%. Note that Peruvian applications would have increased more, had Spanish data been available for February 2024.
In contrast, among these top citizenships, in addition to Afghans, only Ukrainians (many of whom are eligible for Temporary Protection), Tunisians and Georgians, lodged substantially fewer applications in the 12 months leading up to February 2024.
Per receiving country
In February 2024, Germany maintained its position as the foremost destination for asylum seekers in the EU+, receiving the most applications (21,000). In recent months, Germany has been receiving about 30% of all applications lodged in the EU+ and more applications than the next two receiving countries combined. France and Spain tend to receive about 15% of all applications, each. In February 2024, France received 12,000 applications but data were missing from Spain. Italy also tends to feature prominently in the asylum landscape and has been receiving steadily more applications over time. In fact, in February 2024, Italy received 14,000 applications which is more than France. These four countries tend to receive more than two-thirds of all applications lodged in the EU+.
Certain citizenships tend to lodge the vast majority of their applications in a single EU+ country. In February 2024, these included: Bangladeshis who lodged three-quarters of their applications in Italy; Ivorians who lodged more than half of their applications in France, Tunisians and Egyptians who lodged just under two-thirds of their applications in Italy, and Turks who lodged just under two-thirds of their applications in Germany.
Per capita
Evaluating which EU+ countries tend to receive the most applications for asylum is important but to some extent a simple like-for-like comparison is not appropriate because the EU+ countries vary wildly in terms of the size and capacity of their asylum and reception systems. As a rough measure of their overall capacity and a more nuanced estimation of the pressure exerted on national authorities, this chart illustrates the number of asylum applications lodged per million inhabitants (Eurostat population data).
In February 2024, Cyprus, with a small population size of around 921,000, received 800 asylum applications. This amounts to a rate of 870 applications per million population, or 1 application for every 1,149 inhabitants. In contrast, Germany reported many more applications for asylum (circa 21,000); however, given its larger population of 84 million, the German rate was lower at 252 applications per million inhabitants, or 1 application per 4,000 inhabitants. Italy and neighbouring Slovenia, while receiving very different numbers of applications per se (14,000 and just 540, respectively) actually received very similar numbers of applications per capita: each at around or just above 250 applications per million population.
Taking the whole EU+ into consideration: its population of 463 million and estimated 71,000 asylum applications received in February 2024, converts into 150 applications per million population, or about 1 application for every 6,500 persons. Note that applications for asylum in the EU+ as a whole are an underestimation for February 2024 because of missing data from Spain and Portugal.
Uniquely among EU+ countries, Hungary received just a single application for asylum in February 2024, probably because since 2020 applicants are required to submit a declaration of intent at a Hungarian embassy in a non-EU country before they can enter the country and apply for international protection. Read more in the EUAA Asylum Report 2021.
In addition to asylum applications, as of the end of February 2024, there were also 4.4 million persons benefiting from temporary protection in the EU+. This protection is based on a 2001 Directive which was triggered for the first time in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 with the aim of offering quick and effective assistance to people displaced to the EU+. At the end of February 2024, half of all beneficiaries of temporary protection were either in Germany (1.3 million) or Poland (1 million). For context and to allow comparisons with the inflow of asylum applications, the chart above can also be used to illustrate the number of beneficiaries of temporary protection per capita being hosted in each EU+ country. In Czechia, there were about 36,000 beneficiaries per million inhabitants, which amounts to one beneficiary for every 28 inhabitants, followed by Lithuania, Poland, and Estonia, (all at approximately 26,000 beneficiaries per million, or 1 beneficiary for every 38 or 39 inhabitants).
First instance
Time series per citizenship
Over the past two years, the recognition rate, which reflects the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status and subsidiary protection, has fluctuated around 40%, with a slight increase in the second half of 2023. In September 2023, the recognition rate increased to 46%, which at the time was the highest rate recorded for more than three years, and then again to 49% in October. In late 2023 and in February 2024 the EU+ recognition levelled out at 48% but there remains much variation and trends within and between citizenships.
It is worth noting that recognition rates for most of the main citizenships differ wildly from each other but in themselves tend to remain relatively stable over time. For example, in January and February 2024, Bangladeshis continued to have a recognition rate of around 8% which is in line with long term trends months. However, there are exceptions to this general observation:
- Iraqis: Over the last two years, the recognition rate peaked at 60% in October 2023 but decreased continuously to reach 26% in Feb 2024.
- Turks: the recognition has been in steady decline for more than the last two years from 43% in March 2022 to just 17% in February 2024.
- Syrians: the recognition rate has been above 90% for nearly all of the last two years but there has been a trend favouring decisions granting subsidiary protection over refugee status. Indeed, refugee status fell from just under 43% of all decisions in March 2022 to 22% in February 2024.
Read EUAA Country Guidance on Syria, Syria - Country Focus and the following EUAA COI reports Security situation, Targeting of individuals, Socio-economic situation and Major human rights, security and humanitarian developments
- Afghans: In the aftermath of the Taliban takeover in autumn 2021, the recognition rate for Afghans jumped from its usual value of just above 50% to more than 90%, before gradually returning to its former level. Adding to the complexity, there has been another increase to more than 60% since April 2023 .
Read EUAA Country Guidance on Afghanistan, Afghanistan - Country Focus and the following EUAA COI reports from 2022 Targeting of Individuals, Security Situation, Key socio-economic indicators and Major legislative, security-related, and humanitarian developments
Context
It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Afghanistan, tend to be granted national (rather than international) forms of protection which are unregulated at the EU level and are therefore considered as negative asylum decisions in these statistics. Also, these recognition rates are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and do not account for cases decided by judiciary and other authorities at second or higher instance i.e. appeal and review. Read more in the EUAA Factsheet no 19 on recognition rates.
Across receiving countries
The aim of EUAA’s work is to foster a harmonised implementation of the Common European Asylum System across the EU so as to reach a situation where an application for international protection would receive the same decision, no matter where it was lodged. Recognition rates, the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status or subsidiary protection, are sometimes cited as an indicator of the level of such harmonisation between EU+ countries.
It is important to recognise that several objective factors may lead to variations in recognition rates. The complexity of an asylum application and its examination cannot be reduced to a single measure such as the nationality of the applicant. Differences in the underlying profile of the applicant, national jurisprudence and national policies, and the application of certain legal concepts also come into play and can result in different recognition rates (Read Asylum Report - National policies on specific profiles and nationalities). Irrespective of underlying causes, the chart presented here illustrates recognition rates across the EU+ for various citizenships. In each column, individual circles of the same colour represent different issuing countries, with the size of each circle reflecting the number of decisions issued, and their placement on the vertical axis indicating the corresponding recognition rate—namely, the percentage of decisions that granted refugee status or subsidiary protection.
Between December 2023 and February 2024, the EU+ recognition rate for Afghans stood at 63% but as the chart shows, there was much variation between receiving countries (leftmost column of black circles). Most decisions were issued by Germany (the biggest circle, labelled) where the December 2023-February 2024 recognition rate stood at 47%. However, it is important to note that Germany also issued many decisions to Afghans granting a national form of protection (45% of all first instance decisions, counted here as negative decisions for international protection). France also issued many decisions to Afghans with a December 2023-February 2024 recognition rate of 66%, while Greece and Switzerland issued 97% and 96% positive decisions to Afghans, compared to Belgium with 34%. Read EUAA Country Guidance on Afghanistan and EUAA Country Focus on Afghanistan.
In contrast, the recognition rate for Syrians (90%) exhibited a much higher degree of consistency among receiving countries. Among the countries issuing the most decisions for Syrians, Germany and Austria had a recognition rate of 96% and the Netherlands 95%. Notwithstanding the 58% recognition rate for Syrians in Bulgaria and the 73% in Greece, this similarity in recognition rates suggests a more consistent assessment of protection needs among Syrians across these EU+ countries.
First instance
While an application is awaiting a first instance decision, it is part of the caseload of applications under examination by the asylum authorities, or so-called first instance pending cases. The number of pending cases serves as a key indicator that reflects the workload faced by national authorities and the strain on national asylum systems, including reception systems. As of the end of February 2024, some 712,000 cases were awaiting a first instance decision, but this is an underestimation due to some incomplete data. A more realistic estimate comes from the end of 2023 when there were 882,000 cases pending, which is up by 39% compared to 2022 and is more than at any other point since 2016 amid the refugee crisis of 2015-16.
In general, citizenships lodging the most applications tend to have the most cases awaiting decisions. For example, in February 2024, Syrians, Turks and Afghans had the largest share of first instance pending cases (115,000, 85,000 and 71,000, respectively). This situation was particularly pronounced for Syrians, with a 29% increase compared to February 2023, and for Turks, whose first instance caseload has doubled compared to a year earlier.
Over the past year, several nationalities have seen their pending cases more than double. This trend was especially evident for Turks primarily in Germany, and Egyptians primarily in Italy. At a lower level, pending cases have also doubled for Guineans and Ivorians, with most of the increase taking place in Italy and to a lesser extent also in France.
Context: EU+ asylum authorities are under pressure to increase their decision making, and do so often with the operational support of the EUAA. Despite these efforts, decision making has not kept pace with the number of applications being lodged. As a consequence, we estimate that the total number of cases awaiting a decision at the end of January 2024 (including those in appeal or review) increased to around 1.2 million (Eurostat - older data included for Czech Republic). Within this total, we conclude that three quarters (75% or 893,000) of cases were pending at first instance, while the remaining quarter (25% or 291,000) were awaiting decisions at second or higher instances.
The Survey of Asylum-related Migrants (SAM) is a multi-country project designed to collect testimonies directly from people seeking international protection across the EU+. Based on the premise that digital literacy is increasingly prevalent, the project uses online, self-administered surveys that can be completed on smartphones and offers the possibility to survey large numbers of migrants at the same time. The primary objective of SAM is to establish a permanent system of collecting standardised, reliable and comparable data on relevant topics, such as push and pull factors, travel histories and migrants’ future aspirations. Understanding these drivers both facilitates general preparedness to deal with a high number of arrivals but also to better inform policymakers.
On 11 April 2022, the EUAA launched the Survey of Arriving Migrants for Displaced People from Ukraine, with the support of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The questionnaire was updated in February 2023 to include additional topics. Demographics of the responses since February 2023, as of 4 April 2024, are shown below but for more detailed information read the latest EUAA Employment and Education factsheet.
The survey is ongoing and accessible in Ukrainian, Russian and English at: https://tellusyourstorysurvey.eu/.
For more information on SAM and on other projects related to displacement from Ukraine, access the following reports:
Providing Temporary Protection to Displaced Persons from Ukraine
The report covers national developments in the implementation of the Temporary Protection Directive, from crisis measures to changing legislation and practices.
Surveys of Arriving Migrants from Ukraine
Forced displacement from and within Ukraine
This Migration Research Series paper highlights four research projects employed by the EUAA that seek to understand displacement from Ukraine to the European Union.
Voices Europe experiences hopes and aspirations forcibly displaced persons Ukraine Executive Summary
This report highlights the prevailing themes emerging from forced displacement, drawn from the personal testimonies of over 1,500 respondents participating in the ongoing Survey of Arriving Migrants from Ukraine.
By EU+ country
*Blank fields are indicative of EU+ countries not reporting on certain indicators
**Low values are rounded to the nearest 5
By country of origin
National statistics and EUAA data
Country code | EU+ country | Authority | Disclaimer |
---|---|---|---|
AT | Austria | Federal Ministry of the Interior | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
BE | Belgium | Office of the Commissioner-General for Refugees and Stateless Persons (CGRS) |
|
BG | Bulgaria | State Agency for Refugees | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
CH | Switzerland | State Secretariat for Migration | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
CY | Cyprus | Asylum Service, Ministry of Interior | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
CZ | Czechia | Ministry of Interior | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
DE | Germany | Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) | National and EUAA data should be aligned for all indicators, but there may be differences for some breakdowns. Relocated applicants aren't considered in national statistics. In national statistics withdrawn applications are included in otherwise closed cases ("sonstige Verfahrenserledigungen"). Some first-instance decisions that in EUAA statistics are considered as negative decisions, in national statistics are classified as otherwise closed cases. |
DK | Denmark | The main causes to differences between national statistics and EUAA EPS data is the group of cases included in the statistics. For example, national statistics for asylum includes both first- and final-instance determinations and both applications, determinations in appeal, reopened cases and determinations in review. | |
EE | Estonia | European Police and Border Guard Board (in Estonian only) | In general, the data should not differ, there may be cases where the data is corrected afterwards. The small difference with Eurostat data is due to the fact that Eurostat rounds the data. |
ES | Spain | Ministry of Interior |
|
FI | Finland | Immigration Service | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
FR | France | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. | |
FR | France | French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
GR | Greece | Asylum Service | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
HR | Croatia | Ministry of Interior | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
HU | Hungary | National Directorate-General for Aliens Policing | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
IE | Ireland | International Protection Office | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
IT | Italy | Department of Civil Liberties and Immigration, Ministry of Interior | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
LT | Lithuania | Migration Department, Ministry of Interior | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
LU | Luxembourg | Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs | National indicators do not include children born on the Luxembourgish territory during the asylum procedure of its parents, while those children are included in the EUAA statistics. Another reason for differences can be adjustments of the data that are carried out retrospectively on the provisional data provided to EUAA. |
LV | Latvia | Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
MT | Malta | International Protection Agency | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
NL | Netherlands | Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND) | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
NO | Norway | Directorate for Immigration (in Norwegian only) |
Applications: National indicators are based on the date of making the applications. The revised numbers for 2022 count persons strictly. So if one person applied for both international protection and TPD only one is counted. The pseudo-algorithm for withdrawals are disregarded compared to other statuses. If a person have multiple TPDs only, the first one is counted. The same for multiple applications for international protection. Decisions issued: National indicators are based on the most recent decision at first instance before the case is transferred to second/final instance. For example, if a person receives a decision of implicit withdrawal and then re-appears, and receives another decision this decision will be reported in the statistics. We use the same logic to Eurostat, but the first deicion is reports to EUAA." |
PL | Poland | Office for Foreigners |
No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
PT | Portugal | Immigration and Borders Service | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions.
|
RO | Romania | General Inspectorate for Immigration | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
SE | Sweden | Migration Agency |
No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
SI | Slovenia | Ministry of Interior | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
SK | Slovakia | Ministry of Interior | No major differences are expected between national and EUAA data. If discrepancies occur, they could be the result of differences in the timing of data extraction, the scope of data definitions, collection methodologies and/or retrospective revisions. |
Definitions
Asylum applications include all persons who have lodged or have been included in an application for international protection as a family member in the reporting country during the reporting month.
EU+ refers to the 27 European Union Member States, plus Norway and Switzerland.
First instance decisions include all persons covered by decisions issued on granting EU-regulated international protection status (refugee or subsidiary protection) following a first time or repeated application for international protection in the first instance determination process.
Stock of pending cases includes all cases for which an asylum application has been lodged and are under consideration by the national authority responsible for the first instance determination of the application for international protection (until the first instance decision has been issued) at the end of the reference period (i.e. last day of the reference month). It refers to the “stock” of applications for which decisions at first instance are still pending.
The EU+ recognition rate includes EU-regulated forms of protection (refugee status and subsidiary protection) and excludes national protection forms (humanitarian reasons). It is calculated by dividing the number of positive first instance decisions (granting refugee status or subsidiary protection) by the total number of decisions issued
This page is produced by EUAA’s Situational Awareness Unit (SAU) based on monthly data exchanged under the Early warning and Preparedness System (EPS). The data shared with the EUAA by EU+ countries are provisional and unvalidated and, therefore, may differ from validated data submitted to Eurostat at a later stage under Regulation (EU) 2020/851.
Date of release: 18 April 2024