The EUAA’s activities in data analysis and research are centred around three core pillars. We have set up, maintain and develop data exchanges, providing a comparable and comprehensive view on the practical functioning of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS). We produce high-quality and timely analytical outputs on asylum-related migration and relevant aspects of the CEAS for a wide range of stakeholders. We develop early warning capacity, forward-looking analyses, and research on the root causes of asylum-related migration.
In the Analytical Area you can access a wide range of limited analytical outputs on asylum-related migration.
Activities on information exchange concerning international protection commenced in 2013, based on Article 33 Dublin III Regulation and Article 9(3) EASO Regulation.
The EUAA continues developing an information exchange mechanism gathering data from the relevant authorities of 29 EU+ countries (EU Member States, plus Norway and Switzerland), which underpins the EUAA’s Early warning and Preparedness System (EPS).
The EPS indicators focus on all key stages of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS).
As the CEAS is a complex process, this information exchange has been developed in iterative stages. The second stage launched in March 2014 focused on the first instance in the asylum process, while the third stage, initiated in September 2015, focused on access to procedure, reception, and Dublin. At the beginning of 2018, information exchange on the fourth stage of the EPS started focusing on the determination in appeal or review.
The EPS data consist of provisional data shared under short timelines aimed at giving an estimation of the latest asylum trends across the EU+ countries in as near to real time as possible.
In developing the EPS indicators, every effort is made to make them as consistent as possible with existing EU official asylum statistics.
The official statistics published by Eurostat are the primary source of data analysed in the annual EUAA Asylum Report as well as the summary of the Situation of Asylum in the European Union: annual overview including an interactive visualisation on some key asylum indicators.
In addition to these EU statistics on asylum, the relevant national authorities responsible for asylum also regularly release national official statistics on asylum.
Strategic Analysis
The EUAA’s work on strategic analysis is concentrated on producing high-quality and timely analytical outputs on asylum-related migration and relevant aspects of the CEAS for a wide range of stakeholders. Regular analyses on latest trends are prepared in order to provide asylum authorities in the EU+ countries and relevant EU institutions with insights of the situation on asylum across the EU+ countries. Such analyses are primarily based on data exchanges within the Early warning and Preparedness System (EPS), which enable close to real time insights into relevant developments, patterns, and trends. However, they also aim to incorporate information and statistics from other available sources directly to the EUAA or via partner agencies and institutions as well as from open sources.
Strategic analysis output covers regular reports at different intervals (weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual) and ad-hoc reports depending on the identified needs and interests of EUAA and its key stakeholders. Some reports are general, e.g. analysing the evolution of asylum indicators in the EU+ countries or trends in relation countries of origin. Others focus on specific aspects of the Common European Asylum System, such as the Dublin III Regulation or reception. Insights from strategic analyses are regularly presented to the EUAA Management Board, EUAA networks with members of national asylum authorities and partner EU institutions. The EUAA Strategic Analysis team also coordinates pilot projects on new types of analyses and carries out work on designing and implementing new methodologies for analysing qualitative and quantitative data on topics of relevance.
Strategic analytical products are also produced for a wider audience. On a monthly basis, the EUAA presents an analysis of the latest asylum trends, which focuses on applications for international protection lodged in the EU+ countries, decisions issued by national asylum authorities at first instance, and pending cases. It also features a focus section on selected countries of origin and interactive visualisations. Furthermore, each year the EUAA prepares an extensive Asylum Report: Annual Report on the Situation of Asylum in the EU, as well as a preliminary half-annual and a annual analysis, all using EPS data.
Research Programme
As a centre of expertise on asylum-related migration, the EUAA conducts research aimed at elucidating the push, pull and intervening factors determining ‘forced’ migration to Europe, with the eventual goal of developing an empirical model for the analysis and, if possible, prognosis of asylum-related migration at EU level. A key goal of the Research Programme, which is implemented in collaboration with expert bodies in EU institutions and EU+ countries, civil society and the academia, is to develop an empirical model of asylum-related migration to the EU.
The EUAA’s research consists of three main areas of work:
Obtaining an overview of relevant existing work
Establish existing knowledge, by conducting literature reviews on push/pull factors and surveys of existing models in asylum-related migration.
Engaging in empirical work
Research on advancing the understanding of root causes of asylum-related migration from the point of view of migrants. In this regard, the EUAA runs online surveys with asylum seekers refugees and rejected applicants, including in reception centres across the EU+ countries.
Building an empirical model of asylum-related migration
Building an EUAA migration model, by identifying the most relevant determining factors and testing its potential in forecasting the asylum inflow in the EU+. In addition, the EUAA develops a methodology for the monitoring of information sources for early warning, the EUAA Push Factor Index.
The Surveys of Asylum-related Migrants (SAM) is a multi-country operational tool designed to collect information directly from people seeking international protection across the EU+ countries.
SAM offers a unique opportunity to address critical gaps in understanding asylum-migration dynamics to and within the EU. SAM complements data already collected during the asylum procedure by providing additional insights into key unresolved questions, such as migration drivers, pull factors across EU countries, travel histories, routes, secondary movements and personal decision-making processes, among others.
SAM offers an approach to bridge these gaps and address key questions, serving as an effective tool to support the efficient implementation of the Pact on Migration and Asylum while enhancing situational awareness in the EU asylum context. Using a survey-based methodology, SAM allows for the exploration of topics of interest and can adjust to evolving priorities and emerging needs.
Given the increasing prevalence of digital literacy, the current tool uses online, self-administered surveys that can be completed on smartphones, offering the possibility to survey large numbers of migrants in various EU+ countries at the same time.
SAM proof of concept was successfully tested in Greece, in October 2021, demonstrating the added value of using surveys with asylum-related migrants.
Currently SAM is organised into two strands: temporary protection (Surveys with Arriving Migrants from Ukraine) and asylum. In both, participation is anonymous, voluntary and restricted to adults.
SAM Temporary Protection SAM Temporary Protection was launched in partnership with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). includes a survey targeting displaced persons from Ukraine currently living in the EU+. This version was initially launched in April 2022 and a revised questionnaire was launched in February 2023. The online questionnaire is available in English, Ukrainian and Russian. The survey includes topics related to the journey to the EU, life in the host country, urgent needs, future relocation plans and return intentions, back-and-forth movements, family composition and educational background.
SAM Asylum includes surveys targeting asylum-related migrants Asylum-related migrants include asylum seekers, persons granted refugees status or persons with subsidiary status, persons who applied for asylum and are awaiting their procedure to be concluded, and those who received negative decisions in their asylum application. in the EU+. This version was initially launched in 2024 in Romania, followed by Belgium and France. The questionnaire comprises modules covering topics related to family composition, educational background, professional activity, journey to the EU, future intentions, drivers of displacement and pull factors, needs and barriers to services. The online questionnaire is available in Arabic, Bengali, Dari, English, French, Pashto, Somali, Spanish, Turkish and Urdu. SAM Asylum primarily aims to provide strategic and operational insights to asylum authorities in EU+ countries and EU institutions.
Brief overview of recent public outputs from SAM:
The thematic report on Movements and Returns (December 2024) comprises findings from over 7,600 persons displaced from Ukraine currently living in the EU+. The report offers insights on demographic and socio-economic profile, secondary movements and drivers for selecting a host country, back-and-forth movements and returns, also including a contribution from Gradus Research Company based on a panel of 1,250 respondents living in Ukraine and a qualitative analysis of interviews conducted with five experts in migration, based in Ukraine.
The in-depth joint report with the OECD and IOM Voices in Europe (March 2024) highlights the prevailing themes emerging from forced displacement, drawn from the personal testimonies of over 1,500 displaced persons from Ukraine living in the EU. Quantitative and qualitative approaches were combined to underscore concerns about the safety of loved ones, war-related experiences, journeys to the EU, life in the host country, reflections on legal status, along with future intentions on potential returns or onward movements within the EU.
The thematic factsheet on Education and Employment (October 2023) provides findings from over 4,200 persons displaced from Ukraine currently living in the EU+. It offers insights into the education and employment background and current status, demographic profiles, along with future perspectives related to both education and employment.
The thematic factsheet on Reception and Registration (June 2023) presents findings from over 2,100 displaced persons from Ukraine currently living in the EU+. It provides insights into the reception and registration, demographic profiles, employment status, access to accommodation, levels of satisfaction with key aspects of living in the host countries and most urgent needs of the respondents.
Events such as conflict, economic hardship, poor governance, deteriorating political situations and social exclusion of marginalised groups all have the potential to internally displace entire communities or force them to leave their homes to seek refuge in other countries. The EUAA uses big data on media-covered events (GDELT) to monitor such events, which are selected and weighted according to the magnitude of the effect they are likely to have on asylum-related migration. In the interests of simplification, and for analytical purposes, these data have been aggregated into a composite indicator for each country of the world, the EUAA Push Factor Index (PFI). Read more information on applications of the EUAA PFI.
Migration, and especially asylum-related migration, is a complex system, affected by short-lived, context-dependent drivers that interact with each other in unexpected ways and vary wildly between individual displacement events. As a result, migration forecasts which depend on local knowledge and on/off low-quality data tend to be limited in time, space, and scope. To mitigate this issue and to create a system that can be applied at the level of the EU+ countries, the EUAA has developed a data-driven adaptive system that uses machine-learning algorithms to combine administrative data with non-traditional data sources at scale.
The push and pull factors of asylum-related migration, a literature review (download report, published in 2016) contains information that addresses the push and pull factors of migration, with particular attention to asylum-related migration and includes empirical studies and studies developing theoretical frameworks aimed at gaining insight into migration movements.
The review includes different kinds of studies, such as academic research, policy or position papers, briefs, and research reports. More than 300 resources were selected based on systematic searches in trusted search engines such as Web of Science and Google Scholar, and supplemented by extensive searches of the IOM library database.
