In the period April 2023 – 21 March 2025, ACLED recorded 5 944 security incidents, resulting in 14 883 estimated fatalities, both security forces and civilians, and an unspecified number of casualties, with following the breakdown: 3 759 battles, 1 479 explosions or other forms of remote violence, and 706 violence against civilians.290 All type of events had or potentially had impacts on the civilian population.291 Figure 1 below shows the monthly distribution of these types of events during the reference period. Figure 2 below shows their overall distribution and resulting fatalities during the same period.
Comparably, in the various UNSG reports, covering the period 8 February 2023 - 20 September 2024,292 the number of reported security incidents were respectively 935 (8 February – 7 June 2023),293 605 (8 June – 5 October 2023),294 755 (6 October 2023 – 24 January 2024),295 an unspecified number (25 January 2024 – 23 May 2024),296 and 850 (24 May – 20 September 2024).297
Figure 1. Evolution of ACLED security events coded ‘battles’, ‘explosions/remote violence’ and ‘violence against civilians’ in the period 1 April 2023 - 21 March 2025.298
Figure 2. Number of fatalities in the period April 2023 – 21 March 2025 based on ACLED data.299
Based on INSO CHDC data – the Conflict and Humanitarian Data Centre of the International NGO Safety Organisation, which adopts a different methodology compared to ACLED and has a stronger focus on NGO security,300 in the period April 2023 – March 2025 there were 6 861 security incidents in Somalia - Attack, Confine, Theft or Threat – resulting in 6 170 directly impacted civilians either killed, injured, abducted, or arrested.301 Figure 3 below shows their evolution during the reference period. For further details about INSO CHDC data see section on Datasets in the Methodology chapter.
Figure 3. Evolution of security incidents in the period April 2023 - March 2025, based on INSO data.302
During the reference period, several sources reported on the volatility of the situation in Somalia and the impact of armed violence on the civilian populations,303 ‘which continued to ‘bear the brunt’ of the conflict304 and be subject to indiscriminate attacks,305 notably across central and southern Somalia.306
Based on ACLED data, Figure 4 shows the regional breakdown of security events and resulting fatalities, while Figure 5 shows the breakdown of security events and resulting fatalities per main Actor or group of Actors coded as Actor 1, during the reference period of this report.
Figure 4. Regional distribution of security incidents and estimated fatalities in the period April 2023 - March 2025, based on ACLED data.307
Figure 5. Distribution of security incidents and related fatalities grouped per major ACTOR, coded as ‘Actor 1’, in the period April 2023 - March 2025, based on ACLED data.308
For more detailed information on the regional level, please see section 2 Regional security situation and trends.
- 290
EUAA analysis based on ACLED data. Curated Data Files, Somalia, 21 March 2025, url
- 291
EUAA analysis based on ACLED data. Curated Data Files, Somalia, 21 March 2025, url; ACLED, Codebook, 3 October 2024, url, pp. 12, 16, 38. Based on ACLED methodology, all events coded as ‘violence against civilians’ are also considered as ‘civilian targeting’, while ‘explosions’ may be or may not, depending on whether civilians were the main or only target; ‘battles’ instead are never co-coded as ‘civilian targeting’ based on ACLED methodology, but de facto they often are in the Somali context.
- 292
Please note that the UNSG report covering the period 21 September 2024 – February 2025 was not yet published at the time this report was drafted.
- 293
UNSG, Situation in Somalia, S/2023/443, 15 June 2023, url, para. 12
- 294
UNSG, Situation in Somalia, S/2023/758, 13 October 2023, url, para. 12
- 295
UNSG, Situation in Somalia, S/2024/129, 2 February 2024, url, para. 10
- 296
UNSG, Situation in Somalia, S/2024/426, 3 June 2024, url, para. 13
- 297
UNSG, Situation in Somalia, S/2024/698, 27 September 2024, url, para. 12
- 298
EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Somalia, 21 March 2025, url
- 299
EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Somalia, 21 March 2025, url
- 300
INSO, CHDC data, 4 April 2022, url
- 301
EUAA analysis based on INSO data, Conflict Data Dashboard, Somalia, as of 31 March 2025, url
- 302
EUAA analysis based on INSO data, Conflict Data Dashboard, Somalia, as of 31 March 2025, url
- 303
UN Human Rights Council, Situation of human rights in Somalia: Report of the Independent Expert on the Situation of Human Rights in Somalia, A/HRC/57/80, 23 August 2024, url, para. 20; AI, Amnesty International Report – The State of the World’s Human Rights, Somalia, April 2024, url, p. 336; Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2024 – Somalia, 2024, url; Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2024 Country Report – Somalia, 2024, url, p. 18; UNHCR and Protection Cluster Somalia, Somalia - Protection Analysis Update September 2022, 30 September 2022, url, p. 5
- 304
UN Human Rights Council, Situation of human rights in Somalia: Report of the Independent Expert on the Situation of Human Rights in Somalia, A/HRC/57/80, 23 August 2024, url, para. 20; AI, Amnesty International Report – The State of the World’s Human Rights, Somalia, April 2024, url, p. 336; Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2024 Country Report – Somalia, 2024, url, pp. 14, 18
- 305
AI, Amnesty International Report – The State of the World’s Human Rights, Somalia, April 2024, url, p. 336; Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2024 Country Report – Somalia, 2024, url, pp. 14, 18-19; Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2024 – Somalia, 2024, url
- 306
UN Human Rights Council, Situation of human rights in Somalia: Report of the Independent Expert on the Situation of Human Rights in Somalia, A/HRC/57/80, 23 August 2024, url, para. 20
- 307
EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Somalia, 21 March 2025, url
- 308
EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Somalia, 21 March 2025, url