Last update: April 2022
The summary above is provided at a country level. For detailed information regarding the security situation in the different provinces see the EUAA COI reports Security June 2021 and Security September 2021.
Indiscriminate violence and civilian casualties have dropped significantly following the takeover by the Taliban. Conflict-induced displacement has also decreased since August 2021. Following the withdrawal of international troops, one of the main actors of the previous conflict (former Afghan government) has ceased to exist, while the conflict between the Taliban and ISKP continues. The violence which takes place in the country is reportedly targeted, however, civilian casualties have also been observed in the course of such incidents. Security incidents were also taking place particularly in certain areas of the country. Therefore, at the time of writing, the level of indiscriminate violence is considered to be significantly lower than before (the Taliban takeover). Nevertheless, the future risk of indiscriminate violence in any part of the country, should always be based on the most recent information concerning the dynamics in the particular area as well as the country as a whole. Limitations with regard to reliable reporting from the country should also be taken into account.
As the security situation in Afghanistan evolves, in order to make a forward-looking assessment with regard to the level of risk due to indiscriminate violence in a situation of armed conflict, the following elements could be taken into account on the basis of relevant and up-to-date COI:
- Actors in the conflict
Elements which may be relevant include the emergence and/or operational capacity of different actors in Afghanistan. In addition, the potential involvement of other states in the conflict may change the security dynamics in the country.
The duration and relative stability of control of a particular actor in the territory would also be important to take into account.
- Incidents and civilian casualties
The nature of methods and tactics used by armed groups would be an important element to consider with regard to the risk for civilians. Certain methods and tactics would have a more significant indiscriminate impact on the civilian population.
The trends in the quantitative indicators related to frequency of security incidents as well as civilian casualties should also be taken into account in the holistic assessment of the level of violence.
- Geographical scope
The geographical scope of possible confrontations or indiscriminate attacks on the civilian population should also be taken into account. Some conflict-related violence may be limited to a certain region based on the actors involved, for example in relation to local armed groups resisting the Taliban.
Conflict-related displacement may be an important indicator of the level of violence taking place and/or the perception of the risk by the civilian population.