On 27 November 2024, HTS and allied Türkiye-backed factions started a lightning military offensive in northwestern Syria that eventually led to the collapse of Assad’s rule. This operation followed a marked intensification of attacks by troops of the Assad government574 and Russian forces, with ACLED recording 684 aerial and artillery strikes across in opposition-held territories in northern Syria between 1 October and 26 November. These strikes reportedly caused at least 39 deaths among militants and civilians.575
Concurrently with the HTS-led offensive launched on 27 November, assassinations, Israeli strikes, ISIL attacks, and indiscriminate gunfire in the areas formerly controlled by the Assad government led to multiple deaths of civilians.576 Aerial strikes by pro-Assad forces, including by Russian aircraft, killed dozens of civilians in Idlib city between 27 November and 2 December 2024,577 including 22 civilians in a series of strikes that hit a market and five residential areas on 1 December,578 as well as in strikes targeting a hospital in Aleppo city (1 December)579 and areas in Aleppo’s western countryside (between 27 and 30 November).580 Meanwhile, four students were killed when a HTS rocket hit their Aleppo dormitory (29 November 2024).581 By 12 December 2024, more than 1.1 million people had been newly displaced due to the escalation in hostilities since the beginning of the offensive.582
As of February and early March 2025, the territories controlled by the Military Operations Administration (MOA), the umbrella command centre583 of the new HTS-led transitional administration, encompassed most of western, central and southern Syria as well as the western Euphrates bank in Deir Ez-Zor. These areas included the cities of Damascus, Idlib, Aleppo, Hama, Homs, as well as the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartous.584 Sources noted that the control of the new authorities remained fragmented in certain areas.585 While their control in the cities of Damascus, Aleppo and Hama was reportedly effective,586 in areas of Homs, rural Hama and southern Syria (Dar’a and Sweida governorates)587 the MOA forces are overstretched and competing with other autonomous armed factions.588 The coastal areas of Latakia and Tartous have been prone to attacks on security forces589 and sectarian violence590 in the aftermath of Assad’s fall (for more information see section 4.1.2.).
According to ACLED data, the districts most affected by security incidents (battles, explosions/remote violence, violence against civilians) during the reporting period were the districts of Ain Al Arab/Kobane (401 incidents) and Jebel Saman (307 incidents) (both Aleppo governorate) and Deir Ez-Zor district (258 incidents) of Deir Ez-Zor governorate.591 Meanwhile, among all governorates, the fewest security incidents were recorded in Tartous (40 incidents).592 In the coastal areas, the highest number of security incidents was recorded in the district of Latakia (47 incidents).593 The highest number of security incidents in southern Syria was recorded in the districts of Dar’a (75 incidents), Izra (66) and Quneitra (57 incidents).594
- 574
International Crisis Group, Crisis Watch – Syria: November 2024 – February 2025, n.d., url
- 575
ACLED, Syria: HTS-led rebel forces capture over 200 locations, while Syrian and Russian airstrikes increase, 2 December 2024, url
- 576
SOHR, Regime-controlled areas in November 2024 | 381 fatalities in acts of violence and regime forces collapse and losing Aleppo and Idlib provinces top the events, 6 December 2024, url
- 577
SOHR, By previous Russian aerial shelling | Two children die affected by wounds they sustained, 17 December 2024, url; SOHR, Military escalation | Russian fighter jets escalate their attacks on Aleppo and Idlib cities, 2 December 2024, url; Reuters, At least 25 killed as Russian, Syrian jets intensify bombing of Syrian rebel territory, 2 December 2024, url; SOHR, Death toll update | 71 civilians killed and injured under Russian airstrikes on centre in Idlib, 1 December 2024, url
- 578
OHCHR, Syria: Tragic escalation in hostilities, 3 December 2024, url
- 579
SOHR, Two massacres by Russian forces | 49 people killed including 17 members of the regime under airstrikes, 1 December 2024, url
- 580
SOHR, “Putin-Erdogan” area collapses in November 2024 | 351 fatalities in acts of violence and over 200 airstrikes by fighter jets, 1 December 2024, url
- 581
OHCHR, Syria: Tragic escalation in hostilities, 3 December 2024, url
- 582
UNOCHA, Syrian Arab Republic: Flash Update No. 5 on the recent developments in Syria (As of 12 December 2024), 12 December 2024, url, pp. 1-2
- 583
Waters, G., Security in Alawite regions in post-Assad Syria, MEI, 21 January 2025, url
- 584
ISW and CTP, Interactive Map: Assessed Control of Terrain in Syria [Map], last updated 3 March 2025, url; Carter Center (The), Exploring Historical Control in Syria [Map], n.d., url. Set filters to February 2025.
- 585
Balanche, F., Rebuilding Syria May Require Federalism, TWI, 28 February 2025, url; International Crisis Group, Finding a Path through a Perilous Moment for Post-Assad Syria, 10 March 2025, url
- 586
International Crisis Group, Finding a Path through a Perilous Moment for Post-Assad Syria, 10 March 2025, url
- 587
Balanche, F., Rebuilding Syria May Require Federalism, TWI, 28 February 2025, url
- 588
International Crisis Group, Finding a Path through a Perilous Moment for Post-Assad Syria, 10 March 2025, url
- 589
ACLED, Regional Overview Middle East – February 2025, 7 February 2025, url
- 590
AP, Syria’s worst violence in months reopens wounds of the civil war, 10 March 2025, url
- 591
ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url
- 592
ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url
- 593
ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url
- 594
ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url