According to ACLED data, 3 941 security incidents occurred in Syria between 1 November 2024 and 28 February 2025: 1 035 of these were coded as battles, 2 048 as explosions/remote violence, and 858 as violence against civilians. Most security incidents recorded by ACLED during this period took place in the governorates of Aleppo (1 254), Deir Ez-Zor (463), Hasaka (407), Raqqa (375), and Idlib (325). The lowest security incidents figures were recorded in Tartous (40), Damascus (42), Quneitra (57), Sweida (58) and Latakia (103) governorates.804
Idlib governorate witnessed a peak of 257 security incidents in November 2024 before numbers dramatically declined over the following months (38 in December, 17 in January and 13 in February). In Aleppo governorate, incidents similarly peaked in November 2024 (420 incidents) before numbers declined to around 300 in December and January, followed by a further decline. In Hasaka and Raqqa, security incidents rose to a peak in January (168 and 125 incidents, respectively) before declining in February.805
Between the immediate aftermath of the fall of Assad (9 December 2024) and 28 February 2025, the number of security incidents recorded by ACLED has increased significantly in some governorates such as Rural Damascus (89 % of all security incidents recorded during the reference period), Tartous (86 %), Latakia (85 %), Hasaka (81 %), Raqqa (79 %) and Homs (61 %). Conversely, there has been a significant decrease observed in the governorates of Idlib (13 % of all security incidents recorded during the reference period) and Hama (16 %).806
Figure 1. Evolution of ACLED security events coded ‘battles’, ‘explosions/remote violence’ and ‘violence against civilians’ between 1 November 2024 and 28 February 2025807
Figure 2. ACLED security events coded ‘battles’, ‘explosions/remote violence’ and ‘violence against civilians’ on governorate level between 1 November 2024 and 28 February 2025808
A significant concentration of security incidents during the reference period was observed in specific districts within some governorates. In Aleppo governorate, approximately 73 % of recorded incidents occurred in Jebel Saman, Ain Al Arab/Kobane, and Menbij districts. In Hasaka governorate, 83 % of security incidents were concentrated in Hasaka and Ras Al Ain districts. Around 56 % of incidents in Deir Ez-Zor governorate took place in Deir Ez-Zor district, while Tall Abyad in Raqqa governorate accounted for 51 % of recorded incidents. Additionally, 41 % of security incidents in Hama governorate occurred in Hama district, and 40 % of security incidents in Homs governorate were reported in Homs district.809
UCDP recorded 949 security events leading to fatalities during the reference period. The highest number of events was recorded in the governorates of Aleppo (241), Homs (131), Hama (109) and Deir Ez-Zor (93). The lowest number of security events were recorded in Quneitra (5), Damascus (18) and Tartous (19) governorates. For 21 of the events recorded by UCDP the exact location within a governorate was not specified. A high number of security events leading to fatalities recorded by UCDP (39 % of all security incidents) were events in which the parties responsible could not be identified.810
Figure 3. UCDP security events leading to fatalities at governorate level between 1 November 2024 and 28 February 2025811
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EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url
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EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url
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EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url
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EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url
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EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url
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EUAA analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url
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EUAA analysis based on UCDP data. UCDP, data covering from 1 November 2024 to 28 February 2025 provided by courtesy of UCDP in an email, 7 March 2025.
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EUAA analysis based on UCDP data. UCDP, data covering from 1 November 2024 to 28 February 2025 provided by courtesy of UCDP in an email, 7 March 2025.