For information regarding security trends in the areas controlled by Turkish-backed forces prior to November 2024, see sections 2.2., 2.7., 2.8. of the EUAA COI Report Syria – Security Situation (October 2024).
As of February and early March 2025, the Turkish-backed militias (i.e the Syrian National Army - SNA) controlled northern and eastern rural Aleppo, including the area between A’zaz, Al-Bab and Jarablus (operation Euphrates Shield area). The SNA also controlled a stretch of territory further east673 that is known as the operation Peace Spring area, roughly delimited by the Tall Abyad area (Raqqa) in the west and Ras Al-Ain (Hasaka) in the east, with some SNA presence mapped as far east as Tall al-Amir (Hasaka).674 Meanwhile, control of northwestern Aleppo’s Afrin area, previously occupied by SNA factions since 2018, was transferred to the transitional administration as its security forces entered Afrin city in early February 2025.675
- 673
ISW and CTP, Interactive Map: Assessed Control of Terrain in Syria [Map], last updated 3 March 2025, url; Carter Center (The), Exploring Historical Control in Syria [Map], n.d., url. Set filters to February 2025.
- 674
Carter Center (The), Exploring Historical Control in Syria [Map], n.d., url. Set filters to February 2025.
- 675
FDD, Syrian government forces enter Afrin, signaling a change in control, 6 February 2025, url; BasNews, Syrian Forces Take Control of Afrin From Turkish-Backed SNA, 6 February 2025, url
Amid the Syrian armed opposition’s military offensive,676 the SNA on 30 November 2024 launched its own concurrent Operation Dawn of Freedom677 in northern and eastern rural Aleppo.678 Its immediate aim was to push the SDF troops east of the Euphrates River.679 The SNA took several towns in northern Aleppo680 and conquered the city of Tall Rifaat,681 areas located south of A’zaz and Al-Bab, as well as the city of Manbij and its surroundings. Meanwhile, mapping resources disagreed on whether Aleppo city and its eastern surroundings were under HTS control682 or partly controlled by the SNA.683
After capturing the city of Tall Rifaat (northern Aleppo)684 and then seizing Manbij685 following a US-brokered temporary ceasefire that allowed for a withdrawal of the SDF from the city,686 the SNA advanced towards the Kurdish-majority border city of Kobane687 on the eastern Euphrates riverbank.688 On 24 December 2024, the SDF announced a counteroffensive aiming to retake territory lost to the SNA689 as it made some territorial gains in eastern rural Aleppo.690
Heavy clashes between the SNA and the SDF were reported in January and February 2025 at the frontlines around the strategic Tishreen Dam and Qara Qozak Bridge on the Euphrates River,691 in villages in rural Manbij692 and around the city of Kobane.693 The violent clashes using medium and heavy weapons, among which rocket-propelled grenades, in the area around the dam, lead to 116 fighters and 20 civilians killed within 15 days. Clashes around the Tishreen Dam and in Manbij countryside continued throughout January 2025.694 Besides combatants, dozens of civilians were killed or injured during exchanges of artillery and rocket fire between Turkish/Türkiye-backed forces and SDF/Kurdish forces.695
The area around Manbij city witnessed continued violence in the months following the fall of Assad.696 As of late December 2024, amid clashes following SDF attempts to retake Manbij city, the security situation was described as ‘very tense’ and lacking clarity.697 Between late December/early January 2025 and early February 2025, the Manbij area was struck by seven car bombings.698 These included two unclaimed car bomb explosions reported on 1 February (causing four civilian deaths)699 and 3 February (hitting a vehicle transporting women agricultural workers and resulting in at least 19 civilian deaths).700
Map 4: Assessed Control of Terrain around Manbij, © Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, 4 March 2025
Amid what SOHR refers to as ‘escalating security chaos’ in areas controlled by Türkiye and its proxy groups,702 further civilians were killed by unidentified gunmen in Manbij city703 and its countryside,704 as well as in eastern Aleppo’s Jarablus countryside.705 In late December 2024 and early January 2025, there were also several explosions of booby-trapped motorbikes in northern and eastern Aleppo (including one in Tall Rifaat and two in Manbij city), some of which caused civilian casualties.706 SNA factions were also reported to have subjected civilians to kidnapping, beating, and looting in the Al-Bab countryside (eastern Aleppo).707
According to ACLED data, the areas under the control of SNA/disputed in Aleppo governorate which were the most affected by security incidents (battles, explosions/remote violence, violence against civilians) during the reporting period were Ain Al Arab/Kobane (401 incidents) and Manbij districts (212 incidents), amounting to around 49 % of the total number of security incidents recorded in Aleppo governorate.708
- 676
Barkey, H.J., What Role Is Turkey Playing in Syria’s Civil War?, CFR, 6 December 2024, url
- 677
ACLED, Regional Overview Middle East November 2024, 6 December 2024, url; Levant 24, SNA Launches ‘Dawn of Freedom’ Operation, 30 November 2024, url; NPA, SNA announces launch of “Dawn of Freedom” offensive in Aleppo, 30 November 2024, url
- 678
L24, SNA Launches ‘Dawn of Freedom’ Operation, 30 November 2024, url
- 679
Barkey, H.J., What Role Is Turkey Playing in Syria’s Civil War?, CFR, 6 December 2024, url
- 680
Salih, M.A., Post-Assad Syria: Challenges, Opportunities, and the US Role in Shaping its Future, FPRI, 14 January 2025, url
- 681
Syria Report (The), HTS Takes Over Aleppo While Making Advances Towards Hama (Open access), 4 December 2024, url; NPA, SNA announces full control over Tel Rifaat town in Aleppo, 1 December 2024, url
- 682
ISW and CTP, Interactive Map: Assessed Control of Terrain in Syria [Map], last updated 3 March 2025, url
- 683
Carter Center (The), Exploring Historical Control in Syria [Map], n.d., url. Set filters to February 2025.
- 684
Shafaq News, Turkiye-aligned factions seize Tel Rifaat in Syria’s Aleppo, 2 December 2024, url; NPA, SNA announces full control over Tel Rifaat town in Aleppo, 1 December 2024, url
- 685
Reuters, Rebels take Syrian city from U.S.-backed group after U.S.-Turkey deal, source says, 9 December 2024, url
- 686
SOHR, More than eight years of SDF control of Manbij | US-mediated agreement leads to withdrawal of SDF from Manbij city for the benefit of Turkish-backed factions, 11 December 2024, url; Kurdistan 24, US: Manbij Ceasefire Extended, 18 December 2024, url
- 687
International Crisis Group, Crisis Watch – Syria: November 2024 – February 2025, n.d., url
- 688
Iddon, P., Why fighting is raging in north Syria between the Turkish-backed SNA and Kurdish-led SDF, The New Arab, 21 January 2025, url
- 689
International Crisis Group, Crisis Watch – Syria: November 2024 – February 2025, n.d., url
- 690
SOHR, Military escalation | “SDF” advances and takes control over four villages in Manbij as Turkish-backed factions shell Kobani villages, 23 December 2024, url
- 691
ISW and CTP, Iran Update, February 26, 2025, 26 February 2025, url, p. 5; SOHR, Amid Turkish artillery fire and clashes on different frontlines | SDF foil attack and shoot down kamikaze drone in Aleppo countryside, 23 February 2025, url; Guardian (The), ‘We are part of Syria’: Kurdish-led SDF fights for place in post-Assad future, 21 February 2025, url; Etana, Syria Update #19: 22 February 2025, 20 February 2025, url; UNOCHA, Syrian Arab Republic Humanitarian Situation Report No. 1 (As of 12 February 2025), 12 February 2025, url, p. 2; Iddon, P., Why fighting is raging in north Syria between the Turkish-backed SNA and Kurdish-led SDF, The New Arab, 21 January 2025, url; SOHR, After a delegation of Red Crescent left | Clashes renew near Sad Teshrin (Dam) in Manbij countryside, 7 January 2025, url; SOHR, Following two simultaneous attacks | Fierce clashes erupt between Turkish-backed factions and SDF on two frontlines in eastern Aleppo, 23 December 2024, url
- 692
SOHR, Military escalation | Clashes renew between “SDF” and “National Army” in Sad Teshrin, 3 January 2025, url; SOHR, Military escalation | SDF infiltrates and shells positions in Manbij countryside, 30 December 2024, url
- 693
Iddon, P., Why fighting is raging in north Syria between the Turkish-backed SNA and Kurdish-led SDF, The New Arab, 21 January 2025, url; SOHR, Military escalation | “SDF” and Turkish forces exchange shelling in Aleppo countryside, 1 January 2025, url; SOHR, In ten days of battles | 110 civilians and combatants killed and injured in eastern Aleppo countryside, 21 December 2024, url
- 694
Etana, Syria Update #15: 28 January, 24 January 2025, url; Etana, Syria Update #13: 10 January, 9 January 2025, url
- 695
International Crisis Group, Crisis Watch – Syria: November 2024 – February 2025, n.d., url; SOHR, Week of escalation | 54 civilians and combatants killed and injured in confrontations between Turkish-backed factions and SDF and Kurdish Forces, 25 November 2024, url; New Arab (The), Five killed in fighting around Syria's Tishreen dam as Germany calls for Russian withdrawal, 17 January 2025, url; SOHR, “Euphrates Shield” areas | Eight civilians killed and injured under shelling by Manbij Military Council, 3 December 2024, url
- 696
VOA, Another car bomb in a northern Syria city kills at least 19, mostly women, 3 February 2025, url
- 697
Al Jazeera, Syria says 14 policemen killed in ambush by forces loyal to al-Assad, 26 December 2024, url
- 698
VOA, Another car bomb in a northern Syria city kills at least 19, mostly women, 3 February 2025, url
- 699
SNHR, 222 Civilian Deaths, Including 17 Children and 37 Women, as well as Nine Deaths due to Torture, Recorded in February 2025 in Syria, 1 March 2025, url, p. 11; UNOCHA, Syrian Arab Republic Humanitarian Situation Report No. 1 (As of 12 February 2025), 12 February 2025, url, p. 2
- 700
SNHR, 222 Civilian Deaths, Including 17 Children and 37 Women, as well as Nine Deaths due to Torture, Recorded in February 2025 in Syria, 1 March 2025, url, p. 12; Reuters, Car bomb kills 20 in northern Syria, deadliest since Assad toppled, 3 February 2025, url; UNOCHA, Syrian Arab Republic Humanitarian Situation Report No. 1 (As of 12 February 2025), 12 February 2025, url, p. 2
- 702
SOHR, Horrific crime | Family of five executed by unidentified gunmen in village in Manbij countryside, 20 December 2024, url
- 703
SOHR, Security chaos | Two civilians shot dead in Manbij and its countryside, 7 January 2025, url
- 704
SOHR, Security chaos | Child killed and two injured in an armed attack in Manbij countryside, 24 December 2024, url; SOHR, Horrific crime | Family of five executed by unidentified gunmen in village in Manbij countryside, 20 December 2024, url
- 705
SOHR, Horrific crime | Family of five executed by unidentified gunmen in village in Manbij countryside, 20 December 2024, url
- 706
SOHR, Fourth time in a week | Motorbike explodes in areas of Turkish-backed factions in Aleppo, 1 January 2025, url
- 707
SOHR, Surprise raid | Turkish-backed factions kidnap seven young men and assault elderly people in eastern Aleppo, 15 January 2025, url
- 708
ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url
Localities in northern Syria that are part of the Operation Peace Spring area, including in western Raqqa709 (e.g., the Ain Issa and Tall Abyad areas)710 and Hasaka (Ras Al-Ain)711 witnessed heavy clashes between the Turkish forces/SNA and the SDF, involving the use of heavy weaponry,712 rocket fire,713 drone warfare,714 and infiltrations,715 as well as Turkish forces and Türkiye-backed SNA factions bombarding villages.716
Civilian casualties in the Operation Peace Spring area included two women who were shot dead by Military Police (Sulouk area in the Raqqa countryside), a girl injured by a shell fired by Turkish forces (western rural Tall Abyad in northern Raqqa)717 and the killing and wounding of seven civilians in an explosion at a military headquarters in the Ras Al-Ain countryside following an infiltration by SDF special forces.718 The Ras Al-Ain area also experienced growing ‘security chaos’, including thefts, robberies, and infighting between armed factions719 linked to militiamen intending to leave the Operation Peace Spring area720 (such relocations into SDF territory have been facilitated by SDF).721 Turkish-backed Military Police and militias conducted security campaigns targeting individuals attempting to leave the area.722 Several members of Turkish-backed militias have been killed in this context.723
According to ACLED data, the areas under the control of SNA/disputed in Raqqa and Hasaka governorates which were the most affected by security incidents (battles, explosions/remote violence, violence against civilians) during the reporting period were Raqqa’s Tall Abyad (193 incidents), and Hasaka’s Ras Al Ain (111) districts, amounting to around 51 % and 27 % of all security incidents recorded in Raqqa and Hasaka governorates, respectively.724
- 709
Etana, Syria Update #19: 22 February 2025, 20 February 2025, url; ISW and CTP, Iran Update, February 26, 2025, 26 February 2025, url, p. 5
- 710
ISW and CTP, Iran Update, February 26, 2025, 26 February 2025, url, p. 5
- 711
SOHR, Injuring three Turkish soldiers | SDF attack Turkish base in Ras Al-Ain countryside, 21 January 2025, url
- 712
SOHR, Military escalation | Fierce clashes between SDF and Turkish-backed factions leave four militiamen injured in Al-Hasakah countryside, 29 December 2024, url
- 713
SOHR, Injuring three Turkish soldiers | SDF attack Turkish base in Ras Al-Ain countryside, 21 January 2025, url
- 714
SOHR, Amid bombardment on Al-Hasakah and Al-Raqqah countryside| Drone attack leaves Turkish soldier dead and another injured in Ras Al-Ain, 9 January 2025, url
- 715
SOHR, Infiltration operation | SDF sneak into positions of Turkish-backed factions in Tel Abyad countryside, injuring three militiamen, 28 December 2024, url
- 716
SOHR, Amid bombardment on Al-Hasakah and Al-Raqqah countryside| Drone attack leaves Turkish soldier dead and another injured in Ras Al-Ain, 9 January 2025, url; SOHR, Infiltration operation | SDF sneak into positions of Turkish-backed factions in Tel Abyad countryside, injuring three militiamen, 28 December 2024, url
- 717
SOHR, “Peace Spring” area | Two women shot dead by the Military Police, 15 January 2025, url
- 718
SOHR, Infiltration operation | Special forces of “SDF” kill and injure 12 members of Turkish-backed factions and seven civilians, 25 November 2024, url
- 719
SOHR, Wishing to return to their areas | Number of people arrested in the searching campaign by Military Police has risen to 20 people, 17 January 2025, url; SOHR, Second attack in hours | Turkish-backed militiaman shot dead in “Peace Spring” area, 3 January 2025, url
- 720
SOHR, Wishing to return to their areas | Number of people arrested in the searching campaign by Military Police has risen to 20 people, 17 January 2025, url
- 721
SOHR, Turkish intelligence assigns task of pursuing militiamen seeking to return to their areas to “Al-Rahman Corps” in Ras Al-Ain in northern Al-Hasakah, 6 January 2025, url
- 722
SOHR, Wishing to return to their areas | Number of people arrested in the searching campaign by Military Police has risen to 20 people, 17 January 2025, url; SOHR, Turkish intelligence assigns task of pursuing militiamen seeking to return to their areas to “Al-Rahman Corps” in Ras Al-Ain in northern Al-Hasakah, 6 January 2025, url
- 723
SOHR, Turkish intelligence assigns task of pursuing militiamen seeking to return to their areas to “Al-Rahman Corps” in Ras Al-Ain in northern Al-Hasakah, 6 January 2025, url
- 724
ACLED, Curated Data Files, Middle East (28 February 2025), url