During the course of the large-scale military offensive (‘Operation Deterrence of Aggression’) that was launched in November 2024 by HTS812 and several HTS-led armed opposition groups and was supported by Türkiye-backed factions,813 opposition forces carried out attacks using medium and heavy weaponry,814 as well as drones developed by the HTS’s own drone unit.815 Multiple ground-based strikes816 by HTS left four civilians dead in Aleppo city.817
On the other hand, forces of the Assad government and affiliated militia carried out large-scale ground-based rocket and artillery strikes and airstrikes,818 while Russian forces resumed airstrikes, causing dozens of civilian deaths, including in Idlib city and western rural Aleppo’s Al-Atareb and Darat Izza towns.819 Assad’s forces, known for their random use of drones mainly targeting civilians,820 had already escalated their suicide drone attacks against opposition-held areas in southern Idlib and western Aleppo in November 2024.821 According to UN figures, multiple aerial strikes by pro-Assad forces in Idlib city killed 22 civilians on 1 December 2024 as they struck a local market and five of the city’s residential areas.822 According to SOHR, Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq conducted seven attacks on three bases of the US-led Global Coalition on Syrian territory in November 2024 (Koniko gas field, Al-Tanf garrison, and Al-Shaddadi).823 For more information, see section 4.1. of this report.
Meanwhile, airstrikes conducted by the US-led Global coalition and Israeli forces the same month resulted in the deaths of dozens of Iran-backed militiamen, while also killing some Lebanese Hezbollah fighters and unidentified individuals. Attacks targeting Iran-backed militias in Deir Ez-Zor in November 2024 further involved unidentified aircraft and drone usage. According to SOHR, airstrikes launched by Israeli forces in November 2024 left 16 civilians dead.824 For more information, see sections 3.4., 3.5., 4.3. and 4.4. of this report.
Following the ouster of Assad in December 2024, HTS operations targeting loyalists of the former government saw the deployment of tanks, attack helicopters,825 drones826 and long-range rockets827 and took the form of raids828 and combing operations. Meanwhile, the cities on the coast witnessed assaults and targeted attacks by remnants of the former Assad government.829 Likely former pro-Assad gangs (shabiha) were suspected of carrying out ambushes against HTS-led security forces.830 Attacks targeting the HTS/MOA involved the use of explosives831 and small firearms.832 Unknown armed men reportedly dressed in military fatigues and impersonating security forces in one instance committed over a dozen killings in Fahel (Homs) in retaliation for the new transitional administration’s violent crackdown on shabiha.833 For more information, see section 4.1. of this report.
Turkish-backed SNA factions and SDF units continued to engage in armed confrontations and attacks using remote violence.834 The Turkish armed forces launched multiple air and drone attacks against SDF troops in the countryside of Aleppo, Raqqa, and Hasaka, including in eastern rural Aleppo’s Tishreen Dam area. These aerial attacks were carried out alongside artillery attacks on SDF positions by ground-based SNA fighters.835 Turkish artillery shelling,836 drone strikes837 and airstrikes838 reportedly left dozens of civilians dead,839 including in attacks targeting protesters who had gathered near the Tishreen Dam. As part of the ongoing skirmishes in the Tishreen Dam area, the SDF in turn carried out ambushes,840 artillery strikes841 and drone strikes.842 There were reports of dozens of casualties both among the SNA843 and Kurdish forces.844 The Manbij area further witnessed a series of unclaimed car bombings,845 which in total left over a dozen civilians dead.846 For more information, see sections 4.2 and 4.3 of this report.
Following the fall of Assad, Israeli airstrikes saw a significant escalation, reaching nearly 500 attacks by 18 December 2024, according to SOHR records. Launched across multiple governorates,847 these strikes targeted military assets848 and caused a number of civilian deaths.849 After Assad’s fall, Israel deployed tanks and bulldozers in its ground incursions into parts of Quneitra and Dar’a, while Israeli airstrikes targeted an HTS-led convoy, killing a town mayor.850 Meanwhile, US airstrikes on 8 December 2024 hit over 75 ISIL targets851 and aerial strikes by the Global Coalition continued into early 2025.852 For more information on Israeli operations during the reference period, see section 4.4 of this report.
At communal level, exchanges of gunfire were reported between tribal groups in Al-Bukamal city (early November 2024), resulting in injuries among several tribesmen. Further armed clashes were reported between Lebanese Hezbollah/Lebanese tribesmen and local villagers in the countryside of Al-Qusayr city853 in southwestern Homs,854 resulting in several deaths among villagers.855
- 812
SOHR, “Putin-Erdogan” area collapses in November 2024 | 351 fatalities in acts of violence and over 200 airstrikes by fighter jets, 1 December 2024, url
- 813
Al Jazeera, What happened in Syria? How did al-Assad fall?, 8 December 2024, url
- 814
Al Jazeera, Dozens killed as armed groups attack Syrian military in northern Aleppo, 28 November 2024, url
- 815
Guardian (The), Syrian rebels reveal year-long plot that brought down Assad regime, 13 December 2024, url
- 816
OHCHR, Syria: Tragic escalation in hostilities, 3 December 2024, url
- 817
OHCHR, Syria: Tragic escalation in hostilities, 3 December 2024, url; SOHR, “Putin-Erdogan” area collapses in November 2024 | 351 fatalities in acts of violence and over 200 airstrikes by fighter jets, 1 December 2024, url
- 818
SOHR, “Putin-Erdogan” area collapses in November 2024 | 351 fatalities in acts of violence and over 200 airstrikes by fighter jets, 1 December 2024, url
- 819
SOHR, “Putin-Erdogan” area collapses in November 2024 | 351 fatalities in acts of violence and over 200 airstrikes by fighter jets, 1 December 2024, url
- 820
Enab Baladi, Increasing interest in drones in northern Syria, 26 November 2024, url
- 821
Lister, C., Syria Weekly: Regime suicide drone use in NW Syria: Nov 3-9, 2024, 11 November 2024, url
- 822
OHCHR, Syria: Tragic escalation in hostilities, 3 December 2024, url
- 823
SOHR, Iran’s presence in Syria in November 2024 | Nearly 180 fatalities in aerial and ground attacks…evacuation of positions, withdrawals and redeployments in different positions across Syria, 3 December 2024, url
- 824
SOHR, Iran’s presence in Syria in November 2024 | Nearly 180 fatalities in aerial and ground attacks…evacuation of positions, withdrawals and redeployments in different positions across Syria, 3 December 2024, url
- 825
ISW and CTP, Iran Update, January 14, 2025, 14 January 2025, url, p. 1
- 826
ISW and CTP, Iran Update, January 14, 2025, 14 January 2025, url, p. 1; ISW and CTP, Iran Update, December 27, 2024, 27 December 2024, url, p. 3
- 827
ISW and CTP, Iran Update, December 27, 2024, 27 December 2024, url, p. 3
- 828
Enab Baladi, How effective are security campaigns against remnants of Assad’s regime?, 22 January 2025, url
- 829
Enab Baladi, Syria: Ongoing security campaigns against former regime elements, 30 December 2024, url
- 830
Etana, Syria Update #16: 3 February, 1 February 2025, url
- 831
Al Jazeera, مقتل قيادي عسكري باشتباكات مع "فلول النظام" باللاذقية [Military leader killed in clashes with "regime remnants" in Latakia], 7 January 2025, url
- 832
ISW and CTP, Iran Update, December 21, 2024, 21 December 2024, url, p. 3
- 833
Etana, Syria Update #16: 3 February, 1 February 2025, url
- 834
ACLED, Syria: Which groups have been fighting each other and where?, 11 December 2024, url
- 835
Etana, Syria Update #16: 3 February, 1 February 2025, url
- 836
SOHR, Military escalation | Ten civilians killed under Turkish ground shelling on Manbij, 9 December 2024, url
- 837
Etana, Syria Update #15: 28 January, 24 January 2025, url; Kurdistan 24, Turkey Escalates Drone Operations in Rojava, Targets Critical Infrastructure, 11 January 2025, url
- 838
Etana, Syria Update #16: 3 February, 1 February 2025, url
- 839
Etana, Syria Update #16: 3 February, 1 February 2025, url; Etana, Syria Update #15: 28 January, 24 January 2025, url; Kurdistan 24, Turkey Escalates Drone Operations in Rojava, Targets Critical Infrastructure, 11 January 2025, url; SOHR, Military escalation | Ten civilians killed under Turkish ground shelling on Manbij, 9 December 2024, url
- 840
Etana, Syria Update #15: 28 January, 24 January 2025, url
- 841
ISW and CTP, Iran Update, December 21, 2024, 21 December 2024, url, p. 3
- 842
Etana, Syria Update #15: 28 January, 24 January 2025, url; ISW and CTP, Iran Update, December 24, 2024, 24 December 2024, url, p. 1
- 843
Etana, Syria Update #15: 28 January, 24 January 2025, url; SOHR, Leaving 11 militiamen dead and wounded | Clashes erupt between SDF and “National Army” factions in Manbij and frontline of Teshreen dam, 30 December 2024, url; NPA, قسد تعلن مقتل 17 مسلحاً موالياً لتركيا في محيط سد تشرين [SDF announces the killing of 17 pro-Turkish militants in the vicinity of Tishreen Dam], 28 December 2024, url; ISW and CTP, Iran Update, December 24, 2024, 24 December 2024, url, p. 1
- 844
SOHR, Leaving 11 militiamen dead and wounded | Clashes erupt between SDF and “National Army” factions in Manbij and frontline of Teshreen dam, 30 December 2024, url; ISW and CTP, Iran Update, December 24, 2024, 24 December 2024, url, p. 1
- 845
UN News, Deadly attacks in eastern Aleppo highlight Syria’s vulnerability, 4 February 2025, url; MEE, Syria: Manbij car bomb attack suspends SDF-Damascus talks, 4 February 2025, url; UNOCHA, Syrian Arab Republic: Flash Update No. 13 on the recent developments in Syria (As of 29 January 2025), 30 January 2025, url, p. 2
- 846
MEE, Syria: Manbij car bomb attack suspends SDF-Damascus talks, 4 February 2025, url; DW, Syria car bomb explosion kills at least 20, 3 February 2025, url; UN News, Deadly attacks in eastern Aleppo highlight Syria’s vulnerability, 4 February 2025, url; UNOCHA, Syrian Arab Republic: Flash Update No. 13 on the recent developments in Syria (As of 29 January 2025), 30 January 2025, url, p. 2
- 847
SOHR, Since fall of Al-Assad’s regime | Nearly 500 Israeli airstrikes destroy the remaining weapons of army of future Syria, 18 December 2024, url
- 848
SOHR, Since fall of Al-Assad’s regime | Nearly 500 Israeli airstrikes destroy the remaining weapons of army of future Syria, 18 December 2024, url; UN News, Syria: UN chief calls for urgent de-escalation by Israeli forces, withdrawal from Golan buffer zone, 12 December 2024, url
- 849
AP, Syria’s de facto leader says it could take up to 4 years to hold elections, 29 December 2024, url; SOHR, Since fall of Al-Assad’s regime | Nearly 500 Israeli airstrikes destroy the remaining weapons of army of future Syria, 18 December 2024, url
- 850
Etana, Syria Update #15: 28 January, 24 January 2025, url
- 851
USCENTCOM, U.S. Central Command conducts dozens of airstrikes to eliminate ISIS camps in central Syria, 8 December 2024, url
- 852
SOHR, Second attack in 2025 | Strikes by Coalition drone leave three people dead and wounded in Idlib countryside, 15 January 2025, url
- 853
SOHR, Iran’s presence in Syria in November 2024 | Nearly 180 fatalities in aerial and ground attacks…evacuation of positions, withdrawals and redeployments in different positions across Syria, 3 December 2024, url
- 854
SOHR, Mostly civilians | 12 killed and nine injured by Israeli airstrikes on Al-Qaseer near borders between Syria and Lebanon, 1 November 2024, url
- 855
SOHR, Iran’s presence in Syria in November 2024 | Nearly 180 fatalities in aerial and ground attacks…evacuation of positions, withdrawals and redeployments in different positions across Syria, 3 December 2024, url