Latest Asylum Trends

Asylum applications peaked in October 2023 with 123,000 applications lodged, a figure comparable to levels observed during the refugee crisis of 2015–2016. Indeed by the end of that year, some 1.1 million applications had been lodged in the EU+ marking an 18% increase from the previous year, and the highest annual total in seven years. For most of 2024, asylum applications were somewhat stable at around 86,000 applications per month, with 84,000 applications lodged in November 2024.

In addition, in November 2024 around 4.4 million persons displaced from the Russian invasion of Ukraine were receiving temporary protection in the EU+. This number has not changed markedly since the beginning of 2023, but it significantly contributes to the overall number of people in the EU+ with protection needs. Further information on forced displacement from Ukraine can be found in the recently released EUAA Survey of Arriving Migrants from Ukraine: Movements and Returns Report, which also features a contribution by Gradus Research based in Kyiv. Read also Voices in Europe, a joint report based on the personal testimonies of over 1,500 respondents. Details on court cases related to the Temporary Protection Directive are available in the EUAA Analysis of Case Law.

These concurrent trends — asylum applications and displaced persons from Ukraine — are placing considerable pressure on EU+ asylum and reception systems, as reflected in near-record numbers of pending first instance cases, and EUAA operational assistance being provided to 11 EU Member States.

The December 2024 take-over of Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) marked a significant shift in both the country’s stability and the broader regional dynamics. According to the United Nations, between the fall of the Assad regime on 8 December and early January 2025, some 115,000 Syrians returned back to Syria. However, the UNHCR has urged states to refrain from forcibly returning Syrian nationals, emphasising the ongoing vulnerabilities in the country. Several EU Member States have suspended the processing of asylum claims from Syria until conditions stabilise further, although Syrians can still submit applications. The European Parliament has sought clarifications on this practice and whether Syrians returning home risk losing their protection status. Amid this fluid situation, in November 2024 (i.e. still before the fall of the Assad regime), Syrians continued to be the largest group of asylum applicants in the EU+, lodging 12,000 applications and accounting for 14% of the total. This marks a decline compared to previous months (back to levels seen in the first half of 2024), and at the time of writing, early indicators do not suggest a significant new surge in Syrian asylum applications. For more detailed information, refer to the latest EUAA country of origin information reports on Syria - Country Focus, its Security situation, and Country Guidance which outlines the key elements of qualification for international protection.

According to the UNHCR, over 5.5 million people have been displaced in the Central Sahel region (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger) due to ongoing conflict exacerbated by the escalating climate crisis. This has coincided with record numbers of migrants arriving in the Canary Islands, exceeding numbers seen in 2006 during the so-called Cayuco crisis. According to the Spanish authorities, in 2024 there were 47,000 arrivals to the Canary Islands, which Frontex identified as the busiest migratory route in Europe in November 2024. Frontex also reported that Malian and Senegalese nationals were the most frequently detected, which corresponds to an increase in Malian and Senegalese asylum applications: in November 2024, Malians lodged 1,400 asylum applications in the EU+, marking a 52% rise compared to November 2023, whereas  Senegalese lodged 1,100 applications a marked increase compared to most of 2023.

In recent months more Haitians have been seeking asylum in the EU+. In November 2024, they lodged 1,200 applications almost exclusively in France. This level of applications is less than many of the other main citizenships analysed here, but it is a near-record number for Haitians and nearly double the number compared to a year previously. Haiti is currently experiencing a severe escalation in gang-related violence, particularly in its capital, Port-au-Prince. UN figures suggest that more than 700,000 people have been forced to flee their homes and 5,600 were killed in gang violence in 2024.

Typically, around a fifth of asylum applications in the EU+ are lodged by nationals of countries with visa-free access to the Schengen area, which means they can arrive on flights directly from their home countries. Spain tends to receive the largest share of such applications, with visa-free nationals usually accounting for three quarters of its total inflow. Venezuelans and Colombians represent the majority of visa-free applicants in the EU+: in November 2024, Venezuelans submitted a near record number of applications (7,300) ranking second among all nationalities, while Colombians lodged 4,500 applications, ranking fourth. Peruvian nationals also applied in significant numbers, with 2,400 applications in November 2024. However, unlike Venezuelans and Colombians, most Peruvians have been applying in Italy (60%) rather than Spain (36% see chart). This trend is impactful to the extent that, in 2024 Peruvians have often been the number two citizenship lodging applications in Italy. In response to challenges and linked to high numbers of unfounded asylum applications, in October 2023, the European Commission proposed revisions to Regulation (EU) 2018/1806 to strengthen the visa suspension mechanism, potentially allowing the EU to temporarily suspend visa exemptions in response to increased irregular migration or security risks from visa-free countries. In December 2024, the Commission published its seventh report to the European Parliament who will soon vote on the revised mechanism.

Afghan applications have been on a predominantly downward trend over the last two years. In November 2024, Afghans lodged just 7,300 applications which a drop of -23% compared to the same period in 2023. Read an EUAA Country Focus report on the general security and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, plus Country Guidance, which focusses on the key elements of qualification for international protection.

In the autumn of 2023, Turkish nationals suddenly sought international protection in the EU+ in unprecedented numbers such that for a short time they ranked second among all citizenships applying for asylum. However, this Germany-centred surge was short-lived with far fewer Turks seeking protection in subsequent months. In November 2024, Turks lodged just 4,100 applications and ranked fifth among all nationalities.

Since March 2022, individuals displaced by Russia's invasion of Ukraine have been eligible for temporary protection in the EU+. By the end of November 2024, approximately 4.4 million people were benefiting from this protection, which has been extended to March 2026. The majority of beneficiaries were in Germany (1.1 million) and Poland (1 million), with relatively few in France (60,000). Overall, numbers of beneficiaries have not been changing dramatically since 2022, but so far in 2024 an increasing number of Ukrainians have also been applying for international protection in the EU+. In November 2024, Ukrainians lodged 3,100 applications, which is more than twice the number compared to a year previously in November 2023. The increase was concentrated in France, where in November 2024 more than half of all Ukrainian applications were lodged, followed by Poland with more than a quarter (see chart).

The chart above provides a comprehensive overview of November’s top 20 nationalities' asylum application trends, smoothing out month-to-month fluctuations by comparing data from the past 12 months (yellow) with the preceding 12 months (blue). Syrians and Afghans lodged the most applications for asylum during both of these time periods. However, these citizenships lodged fewer applications compared to the previous period, Syrians -14% and Afghans -26%.

Usually this chart suffers from a statistical artifact, whereby nationalities with declining trends are likely to drop out of the top 20, while those with increasing trends are more likely to enter the ranking. Notably in November 2024 many of the top citizenships actually lodged fewer applications between the two reporting periods, as was especially the case for example for Georgians and Turks (-41% and -39% respectively). Nevertheless, it is still notable that Haitians, Malians and Senegalese lodged more than twice as many applications in the 12 months leading up to November 2024 (up by +165%, +137%, and +124%, respectively).

In November 2024, Germany remained the top destination for asylum seekers in the EU+, receiving 18,000 applications or 21% of the total. This was despite the fact that applications in Germany fell by more than 50% compared to November 2023. Spain was ranked second among EU+ countries due to the situation in the Canary Islands combined with visa-free nationalities arriving from South America. In November 2024, Spain received more than 15,000 applications (18% of the total), followed by France with more than 13,000 (16% of the total). Italy received 12,000 applications (15% of the total). Together these four countries received 7 in every 10 applications lodged in the EU+.

Other differences between the main receiving countries include the nature of the caseloads. For example, there is a remarkable lack of overlap between the citizenships that tend to apply in the main receiving countries: in Germany more than half of all applications were lodged by Syrians, Afghans and Turks; in France the top two citizenships were Ukrainians and Haitians; in Spain two thirds of all applications were lodged by Venezuelans and Colombians; and in Italy nearly a third of all applications were lodged by Bangladeshis and Peruvians.

As illustrated in the chart above, certain nationalities predominantly lodge their asylum applications in a single EU+ country, reflecting localised patterns. In November 2024, nearly all Haitian applications were lodged in France, most Venezuelans (89%), Colombians (74%) and Malians (69%) lodged applications in Spain, and most Bangladeshis (74%) sought international protection in Italy.

Evaluating which EU+ countries tend to receive the most applications for asylum is important but to some extent a simple like-for-like comparison is not appropriate because the EU+ countries vary wildly in terms of the size and capacity of their asylum and reception systems. For more information, read an EUAA report on the national authorities responsible for different steps of the asylum and reception systems. As a rough measure of their overall capacity and a more nuanced estimation of the pressure exerted on national authorities, this chart illustrates the number of asylum applications lodged per million inhabitants (using Eurostat population data).

In November 2024, Greece, with a population size of around 10.4 million received around 8,500 asylum applications. This amounts to a rate of 817 applications per million population or 1 application for every 1,200 inhabitants. Germany may have received many more applications for asylum (18,000) but, given its larger population of 84 million, the German rate was lower, at 211 applications per million inhabitants or 1 application per 4,700 inhabitants. Spain and Luxembourg and, while receiving very different numbers of applications per se (15,000 and 200 respectively) actually received very similar numbers per capita, at slightly over 300 applications per million population. Hungary, despite a population size approaching 10 million, accepted fewer than 5 applications for asylum in November 2024 mostly because third-country nationals seeking protection in Hungary can only apply after submitting a declaration of intent at a Hungarian embassy in a non-EU country. In December 2020, the European Court of Justice held that Hungary failed to comply with the rules of EU law on procedures for granting international protection and returning illegally staying third-country nationals.

Taking the whole EU+ into consideration: its population of 463 million and 84,000 asylum applications received in November 2024 converts into 181 applications per million population or about 1 application for every 5,500 persons.

In addition to asylum applications, at the end of November 2024, there were also 4.4 million persons benefiting from temporary protection in the EU+. This protection is based on a 2001 Directive which was triggered for the first time in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 with the aim of offering quick and effective assistance to people displaced to the EU+. For more information, read the EUAA report on the Application of the Temporary Protection Directive. At the end of November 2024, almost half of all beneficiaries of temporary protection were either in Germany (1.2 million) or Poland (just under 1 million – based on Eurostat data). For context and to allow comparisons with the inflow of asylum applications, the chart above can also be used to illustrate the number of beneficiaries of temporary protection per capita being hosted in each EU+ country. In Czechia, there were about 385,000 beneficiaries of temporary protection which translates into 35,000 per million inhabitants, or 1 beneficiary for every 29 inhabitants. For the sake of comparison, Slovakia and Cyprus might be hosting vastly different numbers of beneficiaries (130,000 versus 22,000) but rather similar numbers per capita, 1 beneficiary for every 42 inhabitants.

The Council of the EU has extended temporary protection for people fleeing Russia's aggression against Ukraine for another year until 4 March 2026. Read more here.