Over the summer months of 2021, the Taliban’s offensive advanced rapidly and resulted in them taking over almost all of the country. ANDSF personnel often withdrew from positions without engaging in confrontations. In their statements following the takeover of Kabul in August 2021, the Taliban declared the war to be over [Security September 2021, 1.1.1, p. 11].

As of spring/summer 2022, the Taliban were in control of all the country’s 34 provinces and sources indicate that no other actor constituted an existential threat to the Taliban’s authority [Security 2022, 2.1.1, p. 36]. The Foundation for Defense and Democracies’ (FDD) Long War Journal assessed 7 districts as contested on 29 August 2022: Warsaj (Takhar Province), Khost wa Firing and Andarab (Baghlan Province), Shutul, Darah, Unabah, and Khinj (Panjshir Province), although cautioning that such assessments are ‘extremely difficult’ since the collapse of the former government [COI Update 2022, 1, p. 2].

There were a number of different groups opposing Taliban rule and as of May 2022, there were reports that in addition to Panjshir, resistance to the Taliban was growing in Baghlan, Kapisa, Parwan, and Badakhshan. While these groups proclaimed identical or very similar goals and had the ability to carry out attacks and create insecurity around some roads, sources indicated that they have not been able to merge into one larger resistance movement and that at least until mid-March 2022 they did not pose a concrete threat to the Taliban’s hold of the country [Security 2022, 2.2, p. 45].

The NRF, the primary and most developed anti-Taliban resistance movement, declared in February 2022 that its goal was to fight the Taliban and has made attempts to seize direct control of territory from the Taliban government. NRF and affiliated groups have been active mainly in Panjshir Province and adjacent northern areas  [COI Update 2022, 3, p. 6; Security 2022, 2.2.1, p. 46].

Apart from NRF, ISKP also continued to be active in the country. Activity of the ISKP has traditionally been concentrated in Kabul and in the country’s eastern provinces, notably Kunar and Nangarhar where the group continues to have a strong foothold, especially in rural areas. While during the period of peace negotiations and the intra-Afghan talks, ISKP’s activities aimed to create ‘chaos and confusion’ among different political stakeholders, it was reported that after the Taliban takeover ISKP shifted its focus to undermining the Taliban’s legitimacy. Since then, it has reportedly targeted Taliban security convoys, checkpoints and personnel while assassinating civilians of various profiles [Security 2022, 2.3, p. 50].

The bulk of ISKP fighters has been reported to be present in rural Kunar, Nangarhar and possibly Nuristan provinces. According to UN figures, between 19 August and 31 December 2021, ISKP attacks took place in 16 provinces, and between 1 January and 21 May 2022, in 11 provinces. As of June 2022, new areas of ISKP activity included parts of northern and western Afghanistan (e.g. Kunduz, Balkh, Farah, and Herat) as well as southern and south-eastern provinces like Kandahar, Paktya, and Parwan. Moreover, ISKP appeared to have a presence in nearly all provinces, the UN Special Representative for Afghanistan remarked in November 2021 [Security 2022, 2.3, p. 51].