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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: November 2021

The contracting Syrian economy has been characterised as being in a state of ‘meltdown,’ with an unprecedented rapid depreciation of the Syrian pound (SYP), and sharply rising food prices. The continued devaluation of the SYP has resulted in inflation and a constant volatility of market prices. Real GDP contracted in 2020 and was expected to contract further in 2021, with no economic recovery in sight and the government’s capacity to meet the needs of the population under its control diminishing. Nationwide, 74 % of the basic socio-economic infrastructure is assessed as damaged. [Damascus 2021, 3.1.1]

The sanctions targeting key GoS figures and various sectors of the economy have contributed to the emergence of a ‘criminalised’ economy with a network of warlords and GoS supporters connected to it, deterioration in the formal economy, a weakened civil society, and increased suffering for ordinary people. Furthermore, they have created crippling shortages of fuel, gasoline, and cooking gas. In the winter cooking gas is in very short supply, causing people to switch to wood as they wait for their turn to buy a subsidised gas canister. Prices of medicine and connected shipment costs have greatly increased. [Damascus 2021, 3.1.2]

Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has added to the straining of Syrian economy, as sectors such as tourism, transportation, trade, and construction, have been paralysed. The domestic food supply chains became significantly impacted, with food prices continuing to rise during the lockdown period mid-March – end of May 2020. [Damascus 2021, 3.1.3]

Food security

[Main COI reference: Damascus 2021, 3.4]

Even though there is no shortage of food in Damascus and all areas of Damascus are receiving food, the food prices are high and exceed the purchasing power of the vast majority of the inhabitants. UNOCHA/WHO considered it likely that more families in Syria had been pushed into food insecurity during 2020, due to rising food prices and loss of job opportunities resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Food prices in Damascus had risen by 93 % over the preceding 12 months by February 2020. Between the third week of March 2020 and the last week June 2020, Damascus governorate was among the governorates that reported the largest increase in average food basket prices. Many households are reported to consume only a basic diet consisting of bread, rice, oil, vegetables and sugar due to increased prices. Poultry and eggs could sometimes be hard to find at all. Consumption of meat (lamb or beef) had been heavily reduced due to significant increase in prices. Cheap minced meat of unknown origin, considered not suited for human consumption, has become available in Damascus and finds its way to the markets. Many people resort to collecting food waste from markets and restaurants. During the annual low production season, an average family would need one more salary just to cover fruits and vegetables. IDPs would presumably be on the lower part of the food security ladder.

In September 2020 there were reported shortages of bread in Damascus as a result of wheat flour shortage and queuing for bread has become common. The average quota per person daily is at 3.5 pita breads weighing 650 grams, amounting to about 950 calories. However, analysts stated that the GoS is unable to fulfil this quota.

One Smart Card is issued per family and only to families which are registered in Damascus. The quality of the food that can be bought with the Smart Card is low. During 2020 single persons also started receiving the card. The Smart Card can also be used to buy fuel and cooking gas. 

Housing and shelter

[Main COI reference: Damascus 2021, 3.5]

According to damage reports, severe damages have been inflicted on the areas Bab Touma and Midan Wastani in central Damascus; Barza al-Balad at the city’s border to eastern Ghouta; and on Yarmouk, el-Faloujeh, and on Tadamon with adjacent areas to the southeast. Analysts have stated that the demand for housing in Damascus is huge, and market supply limited. Nearly one million IDPs have settled temporarily or permanently in the city and have increased the pressure on housing, infrastructure, and services. For people settling informally, available services were extensively lacking. Due to the shortage of housing, IDPs are usually squatting in poor areas even though a number of properties have become vacant as their owners have left the city. The houses becoming vacant were located in more affluent areas where the real estate prices were high. The rental rates had risen significantly to between SYP 200 000 and SYP 300 000 (USD 85 – 128) per month by July 2020.

It was noted that no real reconstruction has taken place in Damascus City. The government had not started reconstruction in the most damaged areas of Damascus. It had not even allowed houses to be rebuilt and in some areas administrative and financial obstacles were holding owners back from starting repairs. Moreover, the price of building materials had risen to high levels, making it difficult for owners to rehabilitate destroyed houses. It has been stated that short of access to foreign funds, the GoS also lacks the capacity to engage in reconstruction of any scale that would matter. Medium-to-large size reconstruction projects are expected to be put on hold.

Water and sanitation

[Main COI reference: Damascus 2021, 3.5.4]

The supply of drinking water through the public pipeline in Damascus is considered as good. It covers most parts of the city mainly 24/7 in the winter. In the summer months there can be running water only 3 hours per day, but this will be enough for households to refill their stores of drinking water. In areas where there was much destruction there was no water supply when the government took over, but it had been improving slightly. In the overcrowded neighbourhoods of Ish al-Warwar, Masaken Barzeh, Jaramana, Qudsaya, Nahr Eisha, al-Maydan, and Rukn al-Din, water could be missing for entire days and people would then have to rely upon tank trucks bringing in water. Bottled water costs too much for most people to buy and the monthly cost of barrelled water would be SYP 150 000. During an unusually dry month in November/December 2020, there had been eight days of shortages and frequent interruptions in the drinking water supply in various parts of Damascus.

The sewers system works well for all who live in functioning buildings. There are no sewers available for IDPs living in unfinished buildings and in destroyed areas.

Basic healthcare

[Main COI reference: Damascus 2021, 3.6]

Medical care for Syrian citizens is free of charge in all government clinics and health centres. According to WHO, Damascus hospitals have the largest availability of services in Syria to treat noncommunicable diseases, such as diabetes and diabetic complications, hypertension, cardiovascular, kidney, and cancer diseases. Furthermore, 12 of a total of 15 public hospitals were classified by the WHO as ‘accessible’, while 3 were classified as ‘hard to access’. Public healthcare services are almost for free and a vast majority of people can afford them. Also, medicines provided through the public clinics are subsidised and much cheaper than medicine offered at pharmacies. Even though the public hospitals do offer surgery, surgery is not necessarily readily available there and it requires much time and bribery for someone to get access to surgical treatment in a public hospital. The costs of private healthcare in the capital have been characterised as ‘prohibitive’ for most people, although clinics located on the outskirts of the city would charge less. There are reports that security forces are present inside medical facilities, monitoring the work of the medical staff. Their presence deters many from seeking treatment, since they are widely feared.

Each of Damascus’s 15 hospital serves an average population of close to 122 000. Inpatient capacity has increased from originally 2 840 beds to 3 246 beds. There are 18 hospital beds per 10 000 inhabitants. During June 2020, the public hospitals carried out 5 516 elective surgeries, and 844 emergency surgeries. 265 children with severe diseases were reportedly treated in public hospitals from January to June 2020. During the first half of 2020, 2 673 patients received treatment for cancer, while 1 941 patients received treatment for cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the 36 private hospitals and clinics in Damascus can treat 10-100 patients.

Hospitals in Damascus are reported as crowded and short of qualified staff and basic equipment and medicine and there is a lack of capacity in the health sector in the city. It has been estimated that around 50 % of medical doctors had left during 2020 and in 2021 a further surge in the number of medical doctors who left Syria and who used to work in Damascus was witnessed. The lack of medical staff, especially qualified ones, has led to increasing occurrence of unexperienced doctors committing errors that sometimes caused the death of patients, more often in public than in private hospitals.

WHO reported that 53 out of the 61 public health centres in Damascus were fully functional, 1 partially functional, and 7 non-functional as of the second quarter of 2020, and most of them were reported as accessible.

At the start of the COVID-19 outbreak there were only 3-4 hospitals in the capital that could treat COVID-19 patients and only two of them had intensive care units (ICUs). Even though some more ICUs have been opened and more bed capacity has been made available, it continued to be insufficient. It is estimated that there were 96 ICU beds with ventilators available at public and private hospitals in Damascus and the healthcare system could treat a maximum of 1 920 cases. It has been reported that state hospitals, particularly in the Damascus area, were overwhelmed with patients and have run out of ventilators. Treatment against COVID-19 could also be given at private hospitals, however with a bribe, or at such a high price that people would usually give up and resort to home treatment instead. The pandemic was causing shortages of medicine and price increases, making an already difficult situation even more difficult. UNOCHA/WHO pointed at the potential for further overstretching the healthcare capacity, citing a steady increase in COVID affected healthcare workers reported since July 2020.

Over 44 000 COVID-19 cases were confirmed across Syria as of mid-February 2021. UNOCHA reported 2 908 confirmed laboratory cases in Damascus as per mid-February 2021. WHO reported 15 642 confirmed cases and 1 032 confirmed deaths nationwide as by 2 March 2021. However, various sources considered the prevalence of COVID cases in Syria seriously underreported and researchers have estimated that the numbers of deaths announced by the Syrian government corresponded to only 1.25 % of the actual numbers and that a cumulative total of 39 % of the city’s population had been affected during the pandemic as of September 2020.

Basic subsistence and employment

[Main COI reference: Damascus 2021, 3.2]

UNOCHA set the nationwide unemployment rate for the working age population at 50 % at the end of 2020. The official unemployment rate for Damascus is set to be 30 %, but that number is not considered accurate. Unemployment is common but exact figures for 2020 for Damascus City could not be found. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a strong impact on the general employment situation as the lockdown in 2020 caused closures of workplaces and employment activities that led to households losing one or more sources of income.

Increasing unaffordability of goods and services, negative coping mechanisms such as depleting one’s savings and reducing the number and quality of meals, are on the rise and for most people the job is no longer the main source of income. Before the war, one’s job would make up for 80 % of the average household income but after the war the share had sunk to about 30 %. Savings, remittances, and humanitarian aid have become other important income sources. It is common for people who live in Damascus to need more than one job and it has been necessary for as many family members as possible to work. Furthermore, most government jobs cannot cover living costs and even middle-class families in Damascus usually need two jobs. Child labour is common too, especially for big families with poor backgrounds.

Remittances sent from abroad constitute a substantial share of many people’s subsistence, although it has been assumed that even if income from remittances and all other sources of income were taken together, they would still be insufficient for households to cover living costs.

The World Bank reported in 2020 that poverty in Syria prevailed everywhere while the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reported that 80 % of Syrians in 2020 lived under the international poverty line of USD 1.90 per day. UNOCHA’s estimate of overall poverty in Syria at the start of 2021, was close to 90 %, up by 3-4 percent points compared to 2019. Extreme poverty was estimated at between 55 and 65 %. In 2019, the overall rate of poverty in Damascus has been estimated at 81 % and extreme poverty at 53 %.

Damascus is considered the city with the highest costs of living (food, housing, education, health and clothing) in the country. Average prices of ‘all goods’ tripled in 2020, having increased almost 44 times since the beginning of the conflict in 2011. The average wage level did not increase correspondingly, leaving a huge gap. Throughout the period of lockdown in 2020, fuel prices rose by 21 % for diesel and by 33 % for butane gas used for cooking.

The average monthly salary of government employees stayed around SYP 60 000 – 80 000 per month, occasionally reaching 120 000. For public administrative positions, salaries could reach up to SYP 200 000. In private sector salaries ranged between SYP 120 000 and 150 000 at best. The exploitation of workers has been increasing and wages have been pressed downwards in the private sector. Being paid less than USD 1 per day is not unusual for shop employees, and the physical working conditions are often bad.

From January 2020 to April 2020, the monthly total cost of living for a family of five residing in Damascus rose from SYP 380 000 to SYP 430 000 (between USD 331 and 358).

    

The general circumstances prevailing in Damascus assessed in relation to the factors above entail significant hardship. However, they do not preclude the reasonableness to settle in the city as such. The person’s ability to navigate the above circumstances will mostly depend on access to financial means and in exceptional cases, the reasonableness requirement may be satisfied. The assessment should take into account the individual circumstances of the applicant.

 


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