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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: November 2021

[Main COI reference: Security 2021, 2.3]

General information

Hama governorate is in central Syria and has internal borders with the governorates of Latakia and Tartous to the west, Homs to the south and with Aleppo, Idlib and Raqqa to the north. It comprises five districts: Hama, Misyaf, Muhardah, As-Suqaylbiyah, and As-Salamiyeh. In a March 2021 report, UNOCHA estimated the population of Hama governorate to be of 1 487 074. The estimated population of Hama City was 940 000 in 2021.

Hama city is predominantly inhabited by Sunni Muslims while the rest of the governorate is more diverse with a presence of Alawites, Ismailis and Christian, the city of Muhardah being predominantly Christian. 

Background of the conflict

Throughout the conflict, Hama city witnessed limited fighting. The city came under the control of the government forces in 2014, while the opposition captured the northern and eastern countryside. In May 2017, Russia, Iran and Turkey signed an agreement, which called for the cessation of hostilities between rebel groups and GoS-affiliated forces in four areas. Northern Hama fell under Zone 1, together with Idlib province, northeast Latakia, and west Aleppo province. In 2019, attempts by GoS forces to advance into opposition-held areas in northern Hama were initially unsuccessful. After the SAA imposed a siege on the vast majority of the area later in the year, an escalation of military operations was reported for the region towards the end of 2019.

Actors: control and presence

As most of Hama governorate was under GoS control in March 2021, with the exception of a small strip of territory in the north-western part of the province, various units of the SAA were present in Hama, as well as a large concentration of pro-government militias.

Russian forces have reportedly started to convert the military airport into a Russian military base.

Iranian-backed forces are said to be present in the areas of Misyaf, az-Zawiya, Ma’rin Mount, Shalyout village, Qomhana, and Salamiyeh. Recruitment offices for recruiting into militias affiliated with the IRGC were also reported. There is also information on military operations and attacks by rebel factions.

HTS controlled areas and military positions they took over from other anti-GoS armed groups.

ISIL increasingly carried out attacks and temporarily seized villages in the governorate.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents

The military operations that were launched in 2019 in northwest Syria by GoS and pro-GoS forces continued in 2020. The advances of GoS forces into northern Hama governorate were reportedly the most significant changes of the year 2020. Intensive bombardment and airstrikes were reported, resulting in civilian casualties and damage to civilian facilities. Clashes and shelling between GoS and opposition forces in western rural Hama reportedly intensified in 2021.

Increasing ISIL attacks against GoS forces and allied militias were also observed during the reporting period. Incidents mainly included the capture of villages, ambushes, IED and surprise attacks.

Clashes with shelling and Russian airstrikes also reportedly occurred. In addition, there are reports of Israeli airstrikes on positions held by Iranian-backed militias, which are said to have resulted in civilian casualties, injuries and damage to homes. Furthermore, there is information about the increasing number of people killed by landmines, unexploded bombs.

Incidents: data

ACLED recorded 928 security incidents (average of 14 security incidents per week) in Hama governorate in the period from 1 January 2020 to 31 March 2021. Of these, 736 we coded as ‘explosions/remote violence’, 180 as ‘battles’, and 12 as incidents of ‘violence against civilians’.

Geographical scope

Security incidents were recorded in all Hama governorate districts during the reporting period, with the highest number recorded in As-Suqaylabiyah, As-Salamiyeh and Hama districts.

Civilian fatalities: data

VDC recorded 35 civilian fatalities in 2020 and 48 civilian fatalities in the first three months of 2021. SNHR recorded 54 civilian fatalities in 2020 and 63 civilian fatalities in the first three months of 2021. For the full reporting period, this represented 83 civilian fatalities in total or approximately 6 civilian fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants according to VDC data; and 117 civilian fatalities in total or approximately 8 civilian fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants according to SNHR.

Displacement

In 2020, UNOCHA recorded 10 000 IDP movements from the governorate, including within Hama governorate itself. In the first three months of 2021, UNOCHA estimated 2 020 IDP movements from the governorate itself, including within the governorate.

Regarding returns, UNOCHA reported 15 000 return movements to Hama governorate in 2020, the majority being returns within the governorate. The March 2020 ceasefire agreement is assumed to be the reason for the increase in return movements in 2020. For 2021, close to 6 000 spontaneous returns to the governorate were reported, including from within the governorate itself.

Further impact on civilians

The city of Hama reportedly sustained 4.4 % of the total property damage in Syria. With regards to the infrastructure damage incurred by military activities in Hama city, a report from March 2017 stated that 6 % of the city’s housing asset was damaged. The damage was concentrated in one particular neighbourhood, Sabil, which underwent complete demolition in 2012. Another source from January 2021 stated that in the northern Hama countryside ‘most of the houses [… were] destroyed or damaged’. In addition, due to the damage, there was no access to electricity and access to water was only possible through tankers. Massive damage was also reported in the Al-Ghab Plain. It was reported that between April and September 2020, medical facilities and schools in the governorate were damaged as a result of hostilities. Furthermore, there is information about the increasing number of people killed by war-damaged residential buildings.

Overall, a state of lawlessness characterised by arrests, kidnappings, theft and the exploitation of children and women was reported in areas of northern Hama governorate controlled by GoS forces and allied militias. In addition, there were several reports of the public seizure and auctioning of houses and land belonging to Syrians who fled military attacks in Idlib and Hama. 

 

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that ‘mere presence’ in the area would not be sufficient to establish a real risk of serious harm under Article 15(c) QD in the governorate of Hama, however indiscriminate violence reaches a high level, accordingly, a lower level of individual elements is required in order to show substantial grounds for believing that a civilian, returned to the territory, would face a real risk of serious harm within the meaning of Article 15(c) QD.