Latest Asylum Trends

Over the last two years, EU+ countries (EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland) experienced increased asylum applications with notable surges in the autumns of 2022 and 2023. This trend peaked in October 2023 when 123,000 applications were lodged, a level reminiscent of the refugee crisis in 2015–2016. In fact, by the end of 2023, some 1.1 million applications had been lodged in the EU+ marking an 18% increase from the previous year, and the most for seven years. Since a few months after the peak in October 2023, asylum applications have been remarkably steady, with 84,000 applications lodged in September 2024. Indeed, indications suggest that applications are unlikely to peak for the rest of this autumn.

Additionally, in September 2024 around 4.3 million persons displaced from the Russian invasion of Ukraine were receiving temporary protection, significantly adding to the overall number of individuals in the EU+ with protection needs. For more details on forced displacement from Ukraine, read Voices in Europe, a joint report which highlights prevailing themes based on the personal testimonies of over 1,500 respondents. For more details on court cases related to the implementation of the Temporary Protection Directive, read the EUAA Analysis of Case Law. These concurrent trends – asylum applications plus displaced persons from Ukraine – are exerting strain on the EU+ asylum and reception systems, demonstrated by near record numbers of first instance cases awaiting decisions.

In September 2024, Syrians, consistently at the forefront of asylum applications in the EU+, lodged 14,000 applications, representing 17% of all applications lodged in the EU+. However, Syrian applications are down by nearly a third compared to a year ago in September 2023. For more information, read the very latest EUAA country of origin information reports on Syria - Country Focus, its Security situation, and Country Guidance which focusses on the key elements of qualification for international protection. 

Afghans continued to be the second largest nationality group despite a predominantly downward trend in applications over the last two years. In September 2024, Afghans lodged just 6,000 applications which is less than half as many as Syrians, a drop of -48% compared to the same period in 2023 and the fewest applications since May 2021. Read an EUAA Country Focus report on the general security and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, plus Country Guidance, which focusses on the key elements of qualification for international protection.

In the autumn of 2023, Turkish nationals suddenly sought international protection in the EU+ in unprecedented numbers such that for a short time they ranked second among all citizenships applying for asylum. However, this Germany-centred surge was short-lived with far fewer Turks seeking protection in subsequent months. In September 2024, Turks lodged just 5,300 applications, far fewer compared to the peak, and down by a half compared to a year previously in September 2023.

Since March 2022, individuals displaced by Russia's invasion of Ukraine have been eligible for temporary protection in the EU+. By the end of September 2024, approximately 4.3 million people were benefiting from this protection, which was extended to March 2026. The majority have settled in Germany (1.1 million) and Poland (1 million), with notably few in France (60,000). Despite their eligibility for temporary protection, over the past six months or so more Ukrainians have been applying for international protection in the EU+. In September 2024 alone, Ukrainians lodged 2,200 applications, forming part of an increasing trend in 2024 compared to the year before. Surprisingly, more applications have mostly been received in France, where in September 2024 nearly half of all Ukrainian applications were lodged, followed by Poland with nearly a third (see chart).

According to UNHCR, ongoing conflict, intensified by the escalating climate crisis, has forced more than 3.3 million people from their homes in the Central Sahel countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Correspondingly, this year there has been a surge of boat arrivals in the Canary Islands: according to Frontex detections of illegal border-crossings on the Western African route doubled during January to September 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. According to these data, Malian nationals were the most commonly detected, forced out of their country by conflict and economic crisis, leading to a commensurate increase in the number of Malian asylum applications. In September 2024, Malians lodged 1,200 applications for asylum in the EU+ which is a 65% increase compared to September 2023 but down significantly compared to a peak which occurred in April of this year.

Typically, around 20% of applications are lodged by citizenships that have visa-free access to the Schengen area, which means they can arrive on flights from their home countries. Spain receives by far the most visa-free applications, typically accounting for three quarters of its total caseload. This trend is mostly made up of Venezuelans and Colombians. In September 2024 they continued to lodge significant numbers of asylum applications in the EU+: 5,600 Venezuelan and 3,700 Colombian applications. Applicants from Peru have also been seeking asylum in notable numbers: 2,300 in September 2024 but unlike Venezuelans and Colombians, more Peruvians have recently been applying in Italy (61%) rather than in Spain (36%, see chart), to such an extent that they are often the number two citizenship lodging applications in Italy. In response to challenges linked to visa-free travel and the high numbers of unfounded asylum applications, the European Commission proposed strengthening the visa suspension mechanism in October 2023, which has been discussed by the Council of the EU and should be further discussed by the European Parliament.

To evade month-to-month fluctuations, the above chart offers a comprehensive overview of the asylum application trends of September’s top 20 nationalities, over the last 12 months (yellow) in comparison to the preceding 12 months (blue). Syrians and Afghans lodged the most applications for asylum during both of these time periods. However, Syrian applications increased by 3%, whereas Afghan applications declined by -27%.

Typically, most citizenships in this chart exhibit an upward change in their application numbers, which is to some extent a statistical artefact because nationalities with declining trends are more likely to fall out of the top 20, while those with increasing trends tend to rise into the ranking. Nevertheless, it is still notable that Malians and Ukrainians both lodged many more applications in the 12 months leading up to September 2024 (162% and 64%, respectively).

In contrast, as well as Afghans, other citizenships also lodged far fewer applications between the two reporting periods. These included Georgians, Pakistanis and Moroccans  (-42%, -26% and -20% respectively).

In September 2024, Germany remained the top destination for asylum seekers in the EU+, receiving 20,000 applications or 24% of the total. The next three EU+ countries each received similar numbers of applications: France with nearly 14,000 (16% of the total), followed by Spain and Italy each with nearly 13,000 (15%).

Despite Germany's historical lead receiving the most asylum applications, it has experienced a decline compared to a year ago (-33%), whereas applications in the other top receiving countries remained rather stable. Exceptionally, in September 2024 applications in Poland rose by 85% compared to the same month in 2023, although the actual number (1,600) was much lower than in the main receiving countries. 

Other differences between the main receiving countries include the nature of the caseloads. For example, there is a remarkable lack of overlap between the citizenships who tend to apply in the main receiving countries: in Germany half of all applications were lodged by Syrians and Turks; in France the top three citizenships were Congolese (DR), Afghans and Ukrainians; in Spain applications were dominated by Venezuelans and Colombians; and in Italy a third of all applications were lodged by Bangladeshis and Peruvians.

Adding to localised patterns, and illustrated in the above chart, certain citizenships tend to lodge the vast majority of their asylum applications in a single EU+ country. In September 2024, most Venezuelans (90%) and Colombians (80%) lodged their applications in Spain, most applicants from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (79%) in France, and most Bangladeshis (77%) and Tunisians (73%) in Italy.

Evaluating which EU+ countries tend to receive the most applications for asylum is important but to some extent a simple like-for-like comparison is not appropriate because the EU+ countries vary wildly in terms of the size and capacity of their asylum and reception systems. For more information, read an EUAA report on the national authorities responsible for different steps of the asylum and reception systems. As a rough measure of their overall capacity and a more nuanced estimation of the pressure exerted on national authorities, this chart illustrates the number of asylum applications lodged per million inhabitants – click here for Eurostat population data.

In September 2024, Greece, with a population size of around 10.4 million received around 7,100 asylum applications. This amounts to a rate of 681 applications per million population or 1 application for every 1,500 inhabitants. Germany may have received many more applications for asylum (20,000) but, given its larger population of 84 million, the German rate was lower, at 233 applications per million inhabitants or 1 application per 4,300 inhabitants. Switzerland and Spain, while receiving very different numbers of applications per se (2,400 and 13,000 respectively) actually received very similar numbers per capita, at nearly 270 applications per million population.

Taking the whole EU+ into consideration: its population of 463 million and 84,000 asylum applications received in September 2024 converts into 180 applications per million population or about 1 application for every 5,500 persons.

In addition to asylum applications, at the end of September 2024, there were also 4.3 million persons benefiting from temporary protection in the EU+. This protection is based on a 2001 Directive which was triggered for the first time in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 with the aim of offering quick and effective assistance to people displaced to the EU+. For more information, read the EUAA report on the Application of the Temporary Protection Directive. At the end of September 2024, half of all beneficiaries of temporary protection were either in Germany (1.1 million) or Poland (1 million) – click here for Eurostat data. For context and to allow comparisons with the inflow of asylum applications, the chart above can also be used to illustrate the number of beneficiaries of temporary protection per capita being hosted in each EU+ country. In Czechia, there were about 380,000 beneficiaries of temporary protection which translates into 35,000 per million inhabitants, or 1 beneficiary for every 29 inhabitants. For the sake of comparison, Lithuania and Poland might be hosting vastly different numbers of beneficiaries (81,000 versus 1 million) but rather similar numbers per capita, 1 beneficiary for every 35 or 38 inhabitants.

The Council of the EU has extended temporary protection for people fleeing Russia's aggression against Ukraine for another year until 4 March 2026. Read more here.