COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: April 2024
[Main COI reference: Security 2023, 2.1, pp. 155-159; COI Update 2023, 2, pp. 3-10]
General information
The governorate of Quneitra is located in southern Syria, and borders Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. To the east, it borders Dar’a governorate and Rural Damascus. The governorate is divided into two districts: Quneitra and Al-Fiq. The city of Quneitra is part of the demilitarised buffer zone between Syria and Israel under the supervision of UN Disengagement Observer Forces. The provincial administrative centre is Baath city. As of May 2022, UNOCHA estimated the population of Quneitra governorate at 105 443 inhabitants.
Background and actors involved in armed confrontations
GoS control has been contested in Quneitra between 2013 and 2018 by different armed GoS opposition forces including the FSA and Jabhat al-Nusra. By mid-August 2018, the GoS had recaptured the parts of the governorate formerly held by rebels and ISIL through intense fighting and a withdrawal agreement negotiated with the armed opposition forces. [Security 2022, 2.13.2, p. 223].
During the reporting period, Quneitra governorate was under the control of GoS. UNDOF was present in the demilitarized area between Golan Heights and Quneitra.
There were reports of a growing presence of pro-Iranian forces in Quneitra governorate, which continued to be an area of influence for Iran and its affiliated forces. Hezbollah military troops reportedly joined the northern area of Quneitra. The settling of a new observation point by Hezbollah in the southern countryside of Quneitra, near to the Golan Heights has also been reported. Moreover, a new group affiliated with IRGC, the Imam Brigade, is reportedly operational in the outskirts of Quneitra.
Nature of violence and examples of incidents
Security incidents across Quneitra governorate reportedly involved non-state armed groups, government and pro-government forces, ISIL and unidentified elements. The security incidents consisted in attacks with IEDs, targeted killings, kidnappings, exchanges of fire and limited clashes affecting civilians and the movement of people and goods.
In addition, airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force were reported targeting groups linked to the GoS, Iranian forces and Hezbollah.
Attacks with improvised explosive devices (IEDs), targeted killings, kidnappings and limited clashes attacks on checkpoints, and exchanges of fire were reported between February and May 2023.
Incidents: data
Quneitra was among the governorates where the lowest security incidents figures were recorded [Security 2023, 1.5.2 p. 38]. ACLED recorded 49 security incidents (average of 1.0 security incidents per week) in Quneitra governorate in the period from 1 August 2022 to 28 July 2023. Of the reported incidents, 24 were coded as ‘explosions/remote violence’, 16 as ‘battles’, and 9 as incidents of ‘violence against civilians’. In the period 1 August – 30 November 2023, 16 security incidents were recorded in Quneitra representing an average of 0.9 security incident per week.
Geographical scope
Most of the security incidents were recorded in the district of Quneitra.
Civilian fatalities: data
The SNHR did not record any civilian fatalities in Quneitra between August 2022 and July 2023. In August – November 2023, the SNHR recorded 5 civilian fatalities in Quneitra. This included also civilians who drowned while on migration routes to Europe, without specifying their actual number. Compared to the figures for the population as from May 2022, this represented five civilian fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants for the whole reference period.
Displacement
As of May 2022, there were 3 418 IDPs in Quneitra governorate.
According to UNOCHA, between January and December 2022, approximately 111 persons were displaced from Quneitra, as well as 18 within the governorate. Approximately 87 persons were displaced from other governorates to Quneitra. In the first five months of 2023, there were approximately 15 IDP movements out of Quneitra and 36 IDP movements into the governorate as well as about 4 movements within the governorate.
In terms of IDP returns, UNOCHA recorded in 2022 approximately 164 IDP returns to Quneitra and 31 returns from Quneitra to other governorates. In the first six months of 2023, 144 IDP returns were recorded into Quneitra and about 1 906 returns from Quneitra to other governorates.
Further impact on civilians
Although Quneitra has been spared major combat operations compared to other areas of Syria, military operations have reportedly resulted in areas contaminated with explosive remnants that still pose a threat to civilians [Security 2022, 2.13.3., p. 231].
In February 2023, it was reported that Quneitra governorate recorded one of the highest percentage of communities affected by some form of explosive contamination, resulting in constraints in the access to agricultural fields, schools, markets, hospitals and roads.
Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that indiscriminate violence is taking place in the governorate of Quneitra, however not at a high level. Accordingly, a higher level of individual elements is required in order to show substantial grounds for believing that a civilian, returned to the territory, would face a real risk of serious harm within the meaning of Article 15(c) QD.