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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last updated: June 2022

According to the UN, the population of Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), was estimated to be 40 150 200 people in 2020 [KSEI 2020, 1.1].

Iraq is a federal republic and is administratively divided into 18 governorates, with the KRI governed as an autonomous region by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) [Actors of protection, 1].

The three largest demographic groups in Iraq are Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs, and Kurds. Numerous religious, ethnic, cultural and linguistic minorities live in Iraq, in particular in the North of the country. It is estimated that 75 - 80 % of the inhabitants are Arab and 15 - 20 % are Kurdish. Ethnic minorities make up to 5 % of the population. Islam is the country’s official religion. According to official statistics from 2020, 95-98 % of the population is Muslim (approximately 64-69 % Shia and 29-34 % Sunni) [KSEI 2020, 1.1]. Shia communities are mainly concentrated in the south and east of Iraq. Shia are also the majority in Baghdad and have communities in most parts of the country. Sunnis are mostly located in the west, north, and central parts of the country. The majority of the population of the KRI identifies ethnically as Kurdish and is of Sunni Muslim religion [Targeting 2019, 3.4].

Kurdish is the most widely spoken language in the KRI, while the most widely spoken language in the rest of the country is Arabic [KSEI 2019, 1.1; Actors of protection, 1].

Iraq’s recent history has been characterised by a series of conflicts with political, ethnic and sectarian dimensions. In 2013, Sunni insurgent groups, together with al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQ-I) and affiliates, formed together under the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI), the precursor group to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the Islamic State, or Daesh.

In 2021, Iraq was still confronted with multiple armed conflicts and internal tensions taking place in different governorates of the country. [Security 2022, 1.1]

Since its territorial defeat in 2017, ISIL shifted its modus operandi to guerrilla warfare, organising its fighters in small mobile cells and using bases in remote areas to carry out attacks against security forces, mukhtars, civilians and infrastructure such as power facilities [Security 2022, 1.1.1] Although the group mainly conducts hit and run attacks, they succeeded to carry out two major attacks in Baghdad in January and July 2021. The objective of ISIL attacks is focused on the reduction of the trust in the local government and the government security. [Security 2022, 1.1]

The Iraqi government supported by the international coalition against ISIL launched a series of counterterrorism operations in the central governorates and Baghdad. The operations resulted in the destruction of multiple operating sites, weapons and vehicles, in disabling IED devices, and led to the arrest and killing of ISIL fighters and leaders. Furthermore, the February 2021 ‘Operation Lions of Al-Jazeera’ aimed at cutting of supply and deployment routes between the governorates and was the biggest search operation launched by the armed forces. [Security 2022, 1.1]

The US military mission in Iraq ended by the end of 2021 while the US continued to provide training, logistics and advisory support. [Security 2022, 1.1.1]

Iraq became a theatre of conflict between the United States and Iran. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the Commander of the Quds Forces of the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC-QF) and Abu Mahdi al Muhandis, the deputy of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) by the US in January 2020 triggered a wave of retaliatory attacks from various Iranian backed militias. Besides rocket attacks on US bases and assets in Iraq, Iranian backed militias also conducted a number of roadside bombing attacks targeting Iraqi civilian trucks working with the coalition. Initially, they were carried out by rocket attacks but shifted to drone attacks, since April 2021. [Security 2022, 1.1.1]

Since July 2015 Turkey renewed its military operations against the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) inside Iraq and launched a large-scale border offensive targeting PKK’s logistical infrastructure, operational capacity and tunnel networks. The KRG accepted extending Turkish operations in KRI. As regards the PKK relations with the KRG security forces, rivalry between the PKK (and its affiliated factions) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in the contested areas, was reportedly generated by competition for territory, resources, and status, but it also reflects a contest between two different worldviews and resulted in deadly clashes between the PKK and Asayish and Peshmerga forces. The KRG installed more bases in the KRI to prevent PKK fighters from entering populated areas and to avoid Turkish airstrikes from targeting them. [Security 2022, 1.3.1]

Iranian and Turkish military forces conducted attacks in the border area to target groups based in KRI, which Turkey and Iran assess to be involved in cross-border terrorism. Iran launched artillery and drone attacks at Iranian Kurdish groups and urged Iraq to forbid the United States and Iranian Kurdish opposition groups (KDPI, Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan and PJAK, Free Life Party) to have bases in the border area with Iran. [Security 2022, 1.3.1]

Since October 2019 Iraq witnessed massive protests demanding more job opportunities and an end to corruption as well as a change of the political system. After a lockdown in the beginning of 2020, due to the pandemic, new protests took place, although on a smaller scale. In the KRI violent protests took place, sparked by the growing economic crisis and the government’s failure to pay civil servants’ salaries.

On 10 October 2021, Iraq held parliamentary elections. The election turnout was the lowest in Iraq’s recent history and reportedly reflects Iraqis’ disillusion towards the political system and its political elite. The Sadrist Movement of Moqtada el Sadr won the elections while the Shia factions representing the Iran-aligned militias suffered a significant defeat. Iran-backed militia supporters took the streets and denounced the elections as fraudulent while chanting slogans against the United States and the United Nations. Security forces and demonstrators clashed at the Green Zone on 5 November 2021, resulting in several deaths and scores of injured. The incident was shortly followed by a drone attack on the minister’s residence. As in previous elections, this process has resulted in consensus governments, which include the same political parties, regardless of the outcome at the ballots. [Security 2022, 1.2.2, 1.2.3]

The individual assessment of international protection needs should take into account the presence and activity of different actors in the applicant’s home area and the situation in the areas the applicant would need to travel through in order to reach their home area. This country guidance is based on an assessment of the general situation in the country of origin. Where not specified otherwise, the analysis and guidance refer to Iraq in general, including the Kurdish Region in Iraq (KRI). In some sections, the analysis specifies that it refers to:

  • Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI): An autonomous region of Iraq, including the governorates of Dohuk, Erbil, and Sulaymaniyah.
  • Disputed territories: Areas disputed between the Iraq central government and the KRG under Article 140 of the Constitution. These areas include Kirkuk, parts of northern Diyala, parts of Erbil (Makhmour district), Salah al-Din, and Ninewa.

Figure 6. Iraq, © United Nations[8]

CG General Remarks Map

 


[8] United Nations, Geospatial, Iraq, Map, July 2014, url.