COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: June 2022

General information

Baghdad is situated in the Tigris valley in the centre of Iraq and is the smallest governorate in terms of surface area. Baghdad City, both the largest city in Iraq and the capital of the country, is a major economic hub and includes the heavily protected Green Zone which hosts Iraqi government buildings and foreign embassies, including the US embassy. Bagdad city is also the capital of the governorate.

The governorate is divided into a total of 14 districts. Baghdad City is made up of nine districts: Adhamiya, Karkh, Karrada, Khadhimiyah, Mansour, Sadr City (Thawra 1 and 2), Al-Rashid, Rusafa and 9 Nissan (‘new Baghdad’) districts. Τhe rest of Baghdad governorate comprises the districts of Al-Mada’in, Taji, Tarmiya, Mahmudiya, and Abu Ghraib. Baghdad governorate is by far the most populous in the country. The Iraqi CSO estimated the governorate’s population for 2021 at 8 340 711, with the majority being Shia and Sunni Muslims. The estimated population in Baghdad city for 2021 was at 7 323 000 with the majority being Shia Muslims. Sunnis reside in ‘a few small areas of the city’ such as Mansour and Adhamiya, although mixed neighbourhoods also exist.

During ISIL’s advance in Iraq, Baghdad governorate was the main target of attacks carried out by the group. The group established a firm presence across the northern, western, and southern Baghdad Belts. As ISIL forces were closing to the city of Bagdad in 2014, Shia militias mobilised in large numbers in support of the ISF. As these militias expanded their local power in 2014 and were granted a high level of autonomy, sectarian tensions reached a high level in the governorate.

While ISIL gradually lost territory across Iraq from 2015 onwards, it continued to launch attacks on targets in Baghdad governorate. In 2019 and 2020 ISIL’s attacks in the capital decreased significantly and the group focused back on the rural areas of the governorate. However, more recently ISIL has advanced its presence from the Belts to hit Baghdad City and was even able to carry out three bombing attacks in the city. At the same time, it maintained its ability to operate in areas north of Baghdad City and it had active autonomous sleeper cells to conduct attacks in these areas.

Baghdad governorate has been in the centre of two of the most important security developments in Iraq’s recent history: the US-Iran tension and the protest movement. Starting from 2019, the governorate witnessed a number of acts of ‘tit-for-tat escalation’ between the US and Iran-backed groups opposing the US presence. In 2020, prominent pro-Iranian militias, such as the Kata'ib Hezbollah (KH) militia group and other rogue elements, frequently carried out rocket and mortar attacks targeting the Green Zone and Baghdad International Airport.

In early October 2019, mass protests erupted in Baghdad as residents expressed their discontent with ‘widespread corruption, unemployment and poor public services’. The protests were met with violence on the part of Iraqi security forces and other forces, such as (Iran-backed) militias and parts of the PMF, causing a high number of casualties.

In October 2021, following the results of the parliamentary elections in Iraq, many supporters of Shia parties protested in provinces throughout the country, including Baghdad, against the election results. Protests in Baghdad reportedly ‘turned violent’.

Actors: control and presence

Units of the Iraqi Police and of the Iraqi Army operate in the governorate. As reported in July 2021 routine security in Baghdad City is controlled by the ISF on an everyday basis, in some cases with official or unofficial participation of groups affiliated with the PMF. The Iraqi Army coordinates checkpoints security in Baghdad City. Although improved security in recent years led to some of the checkpoints being removed, hundreds reportedly still exist.

Iran-backed PMF factions maintain ‘substantial bases’ in rural areas of the Baghdad Belts. Most of Baghdad City has been described as a zone where influence is mixed between ISF and PMF. PMF do not maintain a major visible military presence in Baghdad city. However, specific PMF militias have varied degrees of dominance within the city, based on neighbourhood and social class. PMF forces were reported to be operating in areas north and south of the capital, Abu Ghraib in the west and in the Baghdad City neighbourhoods of Shula (mostly those with Shia background).

ISIL fighters are distributed in overlapping ‘geographical sectors’ in several governorates, including Baghdad. The northern Baghdad Belts around the historic ISIL stronghold Tarmiya have been serving as a passageway for the group, connecting several of its geographic sectors.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents

ISIL continued to carry out attacks in the governorate, while the ISF pursued counter-terror operations in response. In 2021, the group continued to target civic and tribal leaders in the Baghdad Belts, and it also maintained small urban cells for the purpose of conducting high-profile attacks. ISIL hit Baghdad City with suicide bombings, claiming responsibility for a twin suicide attack at a market in Baghdad City’s Tayaran Square in January 2021 with at least 31 civilian deaths and 110 injuries. In July 2021, the group claimed responsibility for another suicide bombing at a market in Sadr City (at least 36 people killed, 60 injured). Women and children were killed, and other children were injured following a rocket attack near Baghdad International Airport.

Baghdad governorate continued to be affected by IED attacks on convoys of trucks contracted to supply the US-led International Coalition against ISIL. Such attacks have mainly been claimed by the façade groups Qasem al-Jabbarin (linked to KH) and Ashab al-Kahf (linked to AAH). The reference period witnessed an escalation of activities of Iran-backed Shia militias against PM Kadhimi. Iran-backed militias also carried out rocket attacks against Coalition assets in Baghdad such as the US Embassy and Baghdad International Airport. Shia militias also reportedly engaged in ‘social control efforts’ aimed at degrading ISF control in the city. Efforts by the ISF to counter Shia militias in Baghdad have reportedly been mostly unsuccessful.

Roadside bomb attacks carried out in Baghdad governorate against logistical supply convoys of the US-led International Coalition against ISIL and, in one instance, a diplomatic convoy, were reported.

Protests continued on a small scale into late 2020, with demonstrations staged at the end of November. Large demonstrations were held in several areas of Baghdad in late May 2021. Security forces (whose affiliation could not be ascertained) ‘fired live ammunition, tear gas canisters and used batons’ to disperse protesters, leaving two of them dead while 130 people sustained injuries, including members of the security forces.

Incidents: data

In the reference period, ACLED reported a total of 383 security incidents in Baghdad governorate (an average of 5.9 security incidents per week) of which 176 incidents were coded as explosions/remote violence, 104 as battles, and 103 as violence against civilians. UNAMI^[29] recorded 22 armed conflict-related incidents, 9 taking place from 1st August to 31 December 2020 and 13 from 1st January until 31 October 2021 (average of 0.3 security incidents per week for the full reference period).

Geographical scope

The majority of the incidents took place in Khadhimiyah district. It should be noted that many of the incidents that actually took place in northern Baghdad belts were coded by ACLED as having taken place in the Khadhimiyah district of Baghdad city.

Civilian casualties: data

In the reference period, UNAMI recorded a total of 335 civilian casualties (84 deaths and 251 injuries) in the aforementioned armed conflict-related incidents. More specifically, 24 casualties were reported in 2020 and 311 casualties from 1st January until 31 October 2021. Compared to the official figures for the population in the governorate, this represents 4 civilian casualties per 100 000 inhabitants for the full reference period.

Displacement

In September 2021, 26 610 IDPs were registered in Baghdad governorate. 45 324 IDPs originating from Bagdad governorate were documented across the country with the vast majority being hosted in Sulaymaniyah (66 %) and Erbil (27 %) governorates. 91 902 returnees were recorded in Baghdad governorate, 90 % of whom from areas within the same governorate.

Further impact on civilians

It has been reported that an area of 3 511 square metres was contaminated by explosive remnants of war. In terms of the explosive risk level, stretches of roads in Baghdad governorate were assessed by iMMAP to be at ‘primary risk’.