COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: June 2022

General information

The governorate of Ninewa (or Nineveh) is located in north and northwest Iraq. It borders Syria and the governorates of Dohuk, Erbil, Salah al-Din and Anbar. The governorate is divided into nine districts: Mosul (also capital city), Tel Kayf, Sheikhan, Akre, Tal Afar, Sinjar, Ba’aj, al-Hatra, and Hamdaniya. Akre and northern Sheikhan districts have been administered by the KRG since 1991. The Iraqi CSO estimated the governorate’s population for 2021 at 4 030 006 inhabitants. Ninewa is one of the most ethnically diverse governorates of Iraq. Sunni Arabs make the majority, but other groups also share power and influence. Ninewa’s economy is based on agriculture.

Background of the conflict

In June 2014 ISIL seized control over Mosul which led to a massive displacement in the governorate of more than one million individuals. ISIL reigned by strict rule and targeted and killed those who didn’t comply. The Yezidis of Sinjar suffered high casualties during the ISIL campaign in 2014. The battle to liberate Mosul started in October 2016, lasted nine months and caused a massive destruction to the city. In 2017 ISIL was declared territorially defeated by Prime Minister Haider el Abadi. ISIL waged since then a low-level guerrilla war. As reaction to the rising number of attacks carried out by ISIL, military campaigns were carried out putting pressure on ISIL and resulting in the arrests of prominent leaders. The number of attacks declined in the second half of 2020, picking up again during the summer offensive in 2021, but numbers remained relatively low.

In the October 2020 agreement focusing on the stabilisation of Sinjar, it is stipulated that all armed factions should be removed from the governorate, placing the security sector under Iraqi federal government. The agreement didn’t get implemented. In 2020 Turkey launched military operations targeting PKK and their Yezidi allies in Northern Iraq. In 2021 the attacks spilled over to Sinjar, Qandil and Harkuk region. Due to the increased Turkish military activity in Sinjar, the PMF deployed more forces to the region and threatened Turkey. Nevertheless, Turkey resumed its operation in 2021.

Actors: control and presence

ISIL uses Ninewa as a logistical hub. It exploits situations with a low security presence. ISIL therefore relies on remote bases in desert areas to house fighters and establish command centres for training and logistical purposes like the desert area of Ba’aj and Hatra as well as Makhmour district. ISIL maintains sleeper cell and is subjected to extensive counter terrorism operations.

The governorate is under supervision of the Ninewa Operation Command. The ISF performed multiple counter terrorism operations against ISIL throughout the governorate including in the Makhmour region, the border area with Syria. Local police is in charge of maintaining security inside the district, while federal police and border guards are deployed on the outskirts.

After the expulsion of ISIL in 2015 different armed groups and regional actors moved in resulting in a multitude of local and regional players including the Kurdish region, the federal government, KDP, PKK (including the Sinjar Resistance Units YBS, the Yezidi branch of PKK) and the PMF. 46 different PMF groups operate throughout the governorate. The Sunni PMF man checkpoints to identify persons but lack proper intelligence data and the tribal PMF are affected to ISIL active areas, resulting in a high number of casualties among them. PMF are active in the border areas with Syria to prevent infiltration of ISIL in conjunction with the ISF, but they exploit their position to conduct illicit activities as well.

The PKK have a presence in Sinjar since 2014 to assist the Yezidi in driving out ISIL. PKK established secure locations and built tunnels in the Sinjar district. Since 2019, PKK affiliated groups including the YBS joined the PMF.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents

ISIL aimed to undermine state security and therefore targeted members of the security forces, civilians as well as local leaders and local sheikhs relying primarily on Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) and small arms fire. Most attacks in Ninewa were aimed to keep civilians and security forces away from ISIL’s area of operations. Attacks on the power grid counted for a significant part of the security incidents related to ISIL in 2021.

The Iranian backed PMF including KH, AAH, Badr organisation set up offices that engaged in activities including posing taxes on different sectors. Civilians who did not comply were subject to extortion, threats or attacks. Misconduct and harassment of the PMF were reported. Iraqi forces, the Counter Terrorism Services (CTS) as well as coalition forces were denied access to the PMF area of control. The attacks on the Erbil airport are reported to be conducted by the PMF from the Ninewa plains. PKK is involved in abduction and forcible recruitment of youth under the age of 18 of both sexes, unlawful arrests and of detaining them in secret prisons. Turkey’s actions involve fly and search missions of PKK militants, the use of drones and targeting presumed PKK militants.

Incidents: data

In the reference period, ACLED reported a total of 281 security incidents (average of 4.3 security incidents per week) in Ninewa of which 204 incidents were coded as remote violence/explosions, 445 as battles and 33 as violence against civilians. UNAMI^[39] recorded 51 armed conflict-related incidents, 15 taking place from 1st August to 31 December 2020 and 36 from 1st January until 31 October 2021 (average of 0.8 security incidents per week for the full reference period).

Geographical scope

The majority of the security incidents took place in Mosul district.

Civilian casualties: data

In the reference period, UNAMI recorded a total of 103 civilian casualties (27 deaths and 76 injuries) in the aforementioned armed conflict-related incidents. More specifically, 36 casualties were reported in 2020 and 67 casualties from 1st January until 31 October 2021. Compared to the official figures for the population in the governorate, this represents 3 civilian casualties per 100 000 inhabitants for the full reference period.

Displacement

As of September 2021, 256 034 IDPs were registered in Ninewa, the majority of them were displaced within the governorate. The highest number of IDPs in the country originate from Ninewa. With 1 922 496 returnees, Ninewa had the highest number of returnees reported as of September 2021.

Further impact on civilians

Post ISIL farming was hampered by landmines, security concerns and smuggling activities. The governorate invested in the sector and made progression in its rehabilitation. Drought and water crises in 2021 posed challenges to agricultural and fishing activities and power production pushing farmers to the urban areas. The industrial sector was recovering after ISIL occupation.

In terms of the explosive risk level, stretches of roads in Ninewa were assessed by iMMAP to be at ‘primary risk’. The Mosul Sinjar road stands out with recurrent high risk stretches during the reference period.