COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: June 2022

General information

Anbar is the largest and one of the most sparsely populated governorates in Iraq. The governorate has seven districts: Ana, Fallujah, Haditha, Heet, al-Qaim, Ramadi and al-Rutba and borders with three countries, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The capital of Anbar is Ramadi. The Iraqi CSO estimated the governorate’s population for 2021 at 1 914 165. The governorate is predominately inhabited by Sunni Arabs and has a strong tribal structure. Agriculture has been the main source of livelihood for the governorate’s population.

Background of the conflict

In 2014 ISIL was able to control 80% of the governorate. In November 2017 the final victory over ISIL was declared by the Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi. Despite its territorial defeat, ISIL resurged and regrouped in various parts of Iraq, including in desert areas of Anbar governorate. In 2018-2019 ISIL opted for a strategical shift and conducted more targeted asymmetrical attacks primarily aimed at members of the armed forces and mukhtars.

Tensions between Iran and the United States put pressure on the security situation in Anbar. The targeting of facilities of the US and coalition forces by the PMF led to retaliatory airstrike attacks on locations controlled by Kataib Hezbollah (KH). The killing of Qasem Suleiman and Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis in January 2020 spiked the number of attacks on US assets throughout the country, amongst them on the Ain al-Assad airbase in Anbar.

Actors: control and presence

ISIL maintained sleeper cells in Anbar and waged a low-level insurgency operating in small cohesive cells. The number of ISIL activities remained relatively low. ISF ability to stop illegal crossing of ISIL members reportedly remained limited. Different PMF factions were based in the governorate. Iran backed PMF like KH, Kataib el Imam Ali amongst others were present in the border area as well as Liwa al Tafuf, and Sunni tribal militias. The multitude of security actors led to security gaps that were exploited by ISIL.

The Iraqi forces launched several counter terrorism operations throughout 2020 and 2021, focusing on the border and desert areas with the aim of cutting of ISIL support lines and transport routes, reducing ISIL’s mobility and ability to access urban centres, and tackling illegal border crossing of ISIL fighters and the smuggling of weapons.

On 26 February 2021 the US conducted airstrikes on KH’s bases in Syria. This led to several retaliatory attacks on the Ain al-Assad airbase in the first half of 2021.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents

ISIL used Anbar primarily as a logistical hub, hosting fighters and securing supply routes. ISIL operated in small cohesive cells and relies on small arms, IEDs and mortars. It conducted hit and run attacks against civilians, PMF forces and local security forces. Attacks on the power grid were reported.

The PMF were accused of illicit activities (smuggling and extortion) in the border areas. They conducted rockets and drone attacks on US led bases and roadside IED attacks targeting convoys.

A civilian was killed after entering a trip wired house. A dozen PMF members were killed following a car bomb and 10 persons got injured after the explosion of a car bomb.

Incidents: data

In the reference period, ACLED reported a total of 128 security incidents (average of 2 security incidents per week) in Anbar of which 58 incidents were coded as incidents of remote violence/explosions, 55 as battles and 15 incidents as violence against civilians. UNAMI^[27] recorded 18 armed conflict-related incidents, 9 taking place from 1st August to 31 December 2020 and 9 from 1st January until 31 October 2021 (average of less than 0.3 security incidents per week for the full reference period).

Geographical scope

Security incidents occurred in all districts of the governorate, with the largest overall number being recorded in the district of Al-Rutba.

Civilian casualties: data

In the reference period, UNAMI recorded a total of 47 civilian casualties (19 deaths and 28 injuries) in the aforementioned armed conflict-related incidents. More specifically, 14 casualties were reported from August to December 2020 and 33 casualties from 1st January until 31 October 2021. Compared to the official figures for the population in the governorate, this represents 2 civilian casualties per 100 000 inhabitants for the reference period.

Displacement

As of 26 October 2021, 35 312 of the total IDP population in Iraq originates from Anbar governorate. Anbar continued to have the second highest number of returnees, with a total of 1 541 466 returnees recorded since 2015.

Further impact on civilians

Anbar was the governorate worst affected in the fight between the ISF and ISIL, leading to significant infrastructural damage. Destruction of the infrastructure following ISIL’s occupation, and outdated agriculture methods, has made it difficult for the sector to provide jobs. The government launched a major reconstruction campaign implementing 500 projects restoring facilities, water supply and hospitals, bridges and the Hadidtha oil refinery. This led to an improvement of job prospects for the civilians and stability in the governorate. In terms of the explosive risk level, stretches of roads in Anbar were assessed by iMMAP to be at ‘primary risk’. Coercive measures undertaken by the authorities and security actors in Anbar to force displaced persons to leave IDP camps were reported.