This indicator looks into the presence of actors in the conflict in the respective governorate and their relations. Seen in conjunction with the methods and tactics known to be used by the different actors, this is considered an indication of the risk civilians may face in the respective area.

Some methods and tactics used in an armed conflict are by their nature more indiscriminate than others and create a more substantial risk for civilians. Therefore, information on these is particularly relevant in the assessment of risk under Article 15(c) QD.

ISIL are particularly known to use methods which are of indiscriminate nature, such as (suicide) bombings and attacks on whole villages.

The State actors tend to use methods and tactics of more targeted nature; however, they may also (indiscriminately) affect civilians, such as in the case of airstrikes and shelling.

The number of security incidents is an important indicator, pointing to the intensity of hostilities in a certain area. In relation to this indicator, data collected by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and by United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) are consistently presented per governorate.

ACLED collects data on several types of violent incidents in Iraq: battles, violence against civilians, explosions/remote violence, riots, protests, strategic developments. Each incident is coded with the time and place, type of violent incident, the parties involved, and the number of fatalities. The COI summaries per governorate focus in particular on the number of incidents coded as follows:

• Battles: violent clashes between at least two armed groups. 

  Battles can occur between armed and organised State, non-State, and external groups, and in any combination therein. Sub-events of battles are armed clashes, government regains territory and non-State actor overtakes territory.

• Explosions/remote violence: events where an explosion, bomb or other explosive device was used to engage in conflict. 

  They include one-sided violent events in which the tool for engaging in conflict creates asymmetry by taking away the ability of the target to engage or defend themselves and their location. These include air/drone strikes, suicide bombs, shelling/artillery/missile attack, remote explosive/landmine/IED, grenade, chemical weapon.

• Violence against civilians: violent events where an organised armed group deliberately inflicts violence upon unarmed non-combatants. 

  It includes violent attacks on unarmed civilians such as sexual violence, attacks, abduction/forced disappearance.

UNAMI data focuses on armed conflict-related incidents, which have directly impacted civilians (causing civilian casualties) and the civilian nature of property and protected areas (such as civilian houses, cropland, schools, health facilities and mosque).

For further information on the data, see Security 2022.

In order to provide an indication of the relative intensity of incidents, the number of security incidents is furthermore presented as a weekly average for the full reporting period. This may not be representative of the fluctuations in the intensity of violence. Where relevant information is available, such fluctuations are additionally mentioned.

The general approach under this section is to provide assessment at governorate level. This indicator looks into how widespread the violence is within the area and whether it affects the whole of the governorate or certain parts of it. Where such information is available, the analysis highlights the districts which are particularly affected by indiscriminate violence and/or the districts which are relatively less affected. The accessibility of the area should also be taken into account.

This is considered a key indicator when assessing (the level of) indiscriminate violence in the context of Article 15(c) QD.

The data used for this indicator consistently refers to the number of civilian casualties (deaths and injuries) in armed conflict-related incidents in each governorate, as recorded by UNAMI from 1st August 2020 until 31st October 2021. The reported number of casualties is further weighted by the population of the governorate and presented as ‘number of civilian casualties per 100 000 inhabitants’, further rounded to the unit.

Under this indicator, the COI summaries per governorate provide information about recent IDP movements from the governorate, including to other places within the governorate itself. Information on returns to the governorate is also provided. The latter also captures return from other governorates as well as from within the governorate itself.