COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023
 

Activity of the ISKP has traditionally been concentrated in Kabul and in the country’s eastern provinces, notably Kunar and Nangarhar where the group continued to have a strong foothold, especially in rural areas. In November 2021, the UN Special Representative for Afghanistan remarked that ISKP appeared to have a presence in nearly all provinces. The bulk of ISKP fighters has been reported to be present in rural Kunar, Nangarhar and possibly Nuristan provinces. Two sources noted, in autumn 2021, that ISKP did not hold any territory. However, in early February 2022 sources indicated that the group was in control of limited territory in eastern Afghanistan. In late May 2022, it was reported that ISKP might be weaker than previously assessed and unable to regain territory [Security 2022, 1.1., p. 22, 2.3, pp. 50-51].

After the Taliban takeover in August 2021 ISKP shifted its focus to undermining the Taliban’s legitimacy. Since then, it has reportedly targeted Taliban security convoys, checkpoints and personnel while assassinating civilians of various profiles. It also continued to conduct large-scale attacks, in particular targeting Shia Hazara [Security 2022, 2.3, p. 50].

In the period from 1 January to 21 May 2022, there were documented attacks by the group in 11 provinces (compared to 6 provinces over the same period in 2021). As of June 2022, new areas of ISKP activity included parts of northern and western Afghanistan (e.g. Kunduz, Balkh, Farah, and Herat), as well as southern and south-eastern provinces like Kandahar, Paktya, and Parwan. During the period August 2021 – May 2022 ISKP conducted several large high-profile attacks, including an attack on Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport and attacks on Shia mosques in the cities of Kunduz and Kandahar, a military hospital in Kabul, a Shia Mosque in Mazar-e Sharif and a series of bombings in Mazar-e Sharif and Kabul [Security 2022, 2.3, p. 51].

One source had noted that there was no indication that ISKP had the capacity to challenge the Taliban in the short term, with a decrease in large-scale attacks seen in late 2021 and the first months of 2022. However, the group re-escalated its attacks in April and May 2022. Multiple attacks in Mazar-e Sharif and Kunduz cities showed that ISKP had improved its ability to operate and carry out attacks in northern Afghanistan. ISKP attacks in Kabul and in the north mainly hit civilian targets, while its attacks in other parts of the country targeted the Taliban [Security 2022, 2.3, p. 52].

For further information on human rights violations committed by the ISKP and their relevance as potential exclusion grounds, see 7. Exclusion.