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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

2023_CG_AFG_Map

[Main COI reference: Security 2022, 4.17, pp. 137-140]

As of May 2022, Kapisa was reported as one of the provinces where resistance to the Taliban was growing.

During the reference period, ACLED recorded 97 security incidents in Kapisa (average of 1.6 incidents per week), of which 70 were battles, 13 explosions/remote violence, and 14 cases of violence against civilians. Most incidents were attributed to NRF and consisted mostly of battles with the Taliban forces or attacks on Taliban targets. According to ACLED, the security incidents in the province resulted in 158 fatalities, which included combatants and non-combatants.

UCDP recorded 30 security incidents in the period between 16 August 2021 and 22 October, resulting in 12 civilian deaths. Compared to population data from UNOCHA, this represented two civilian deaths per 100 000 inhabitants.

Incidents include clashes between Taliban and NRF and AFF, attacks of NRF against the Taliban, the launching of a rocket by NRF on a building after the Taliban had arrested six women and three children, the killing of a Taliban commander by the Liberation Front of Afghanistan, armed clashes between members of the former ANDSF and Taliban members following an operation by the Taliban to arrest two former ANDSF members, the killing of two clerics by unidentified perpetrators, the attack by unknown gunmen on a car with relatives of a former jihadi commander and member of parliament, the killing by the Taliban of alleged armed robbers.

From August to the end of November 2021, 3 101 persons were displaced due to conflict. In April 2022, 763 persons were displaced. IOM identified 9 863 IDP arrivals in Kapisa in the period between August 2021 and December 2021. In the same period 41 610 IDPs returned to Kapisa. There were no displacement movements in or out of the province recorded by UNOCHA from January to the beginning of May 2022.

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that indiscriminate violence is taking place in the province of Kapisa, however not at a high level. Moreover, a significant proportion of the civilian fatalities in the province is considered to be the result of security incidents of a targeted nature. Therefore, a high level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.