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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

2023_CG_AFG_Map

[Main COI reference: Security 2022, 4.20, pp. 146-151]

In April 2022, NRF reportedly increased its operations against Taliban forces in several Afghan provinces, including Kunduz.

During the reference period, ACLED recorded 66 security incidents in Kunduz Province (average of 1.1 incident per week) of which 25 were battles, 23 cases of violence against civilians, and 18 explosions/remote violence.

Most incidents were attributed to unidentified armed group(s), Taliban forces and ISKP, with a few incidents also attributed to NRF and NLF.

According to ACLED, the security incidents in the province resulted in 229 fatalities, which included combatants and non-combatants.

UCDP recorded 41 security incidents in the period between 16 August 2021 and 22 October, resulting in 179 civilian deaths (114 of which resulted from two separate ISKP attacks). Compared to population data from UNOCHA, this represented 12 civilian deaths per 100 000 inhabitants.

Examples of incidents included ISKP attacks on mosques with high numbers of casualties, including children, such as the suicide bombing at the Sayed Abad Shia Mosque in Khan Abad District on 8 October 2021 during Friday prayers, when over 400 worshippers were gathered, which, depending on the source, resulted in between 20 and 150 civilian deaths, and 90 to 290 injured civilians, including at least 38 boys (13 killed, 25 injured). One bomb explosion on a mosque in Imam Sahib District with civilian casualties, carried out by unknown perpetrators, was also reported. ISKP attacks on Taliban security forces were also reported in the province. Killings of members of the former security forces and of one ISKP member by Taliban forces, one clash between Taliban forces and the military forces of Tajikistan, one attack of the NRF on Taliban forces with no civilian casualties, and businessmen kidnappings.

The only NRF-launched attack recorded by ACLED in the reference period was an attack by NRF on the Taliban forces in Dawlatha village of Kunduz City in March 2022, in which one Taliban member was killed and another one wounded. On 31 May 2022, a former local ANDSF commander was reportedly shot by Taliban forces in Kunduz City.

According to UNOCHA, Kunduz is one of the eight provinces ‘with the highest priority’ for UNMAS survey, as an area ‘where threats of improvised mines have been reported as a result of recent conflicts’. Several instances of explosions of war remnants killing or injuring individuals, including children, were reported in the reference period.

24 752 persons were displaced due to conflict from Kunduz Province between mid-August and November 2021. No displacement has been registered from January to the beginning of May 2022. IOM identified 33 327 IDP arrivals in Kunduz Province in the period between August 2021 and December 2021. In the same period 156 666 IDPs returned to Kunduz.

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that indiscriminate violence is taking place in the province of Kunduz, however not at a high level. Moreover, a significant proportion of the civilian fatalities in the province is considered to be the result of security incidents of a targeted nature. Therefore, a high level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.