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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

2023_CG_AFG_Map

[Main COI reference: Security 2022, 4.5, pp. 99-103]

Since April/May 2022, ISKP activity has been reported in Balkh, and in particular in the capital city of Mazar-e Sharif.

During the reference period, ACLED recorded 76 security incidents in Balkh Province (average of 1.2 incidents per week), the majority of which (49) were cases of violence against civilians. Other incidents included 17 battles and 10 explosions/remote violence. Most incidents were attributed to the Taliban forces and to unidentified armed group(s), with several incidents also attributed to ISKP and to NRF. According to ACLED, the security incidents in the province resulted in 153 fatalities, including both combatants and non-combatants.

UCDP recorded 23 security incidents in the period between 16 August 2021 and 22 October, resulting in 92 civilian deaths. Compared to population data from UNOCHA, this represented five civilian deaths per 100 000 inhabitants.

Examples of incidents included clashes between the Taliban and NRF, ISKP attacks on the civilian population in the city of Mazar-e Sharif, Taliban killings of former employees of the ANDSF, clashes between the local Taliban police chief and residents of a village in the province over land ownership, kidnappings of businessmen.

In May 2022, ISKP claimed responsibility for blowing up three electricity pylons in Tangi Tashqurghan, between Samangan and Balkh provinces. Conflicts related to land and property led to forced evictions, which in some instances reportedly affected ethnic minorities and seemed to be either tolerated or facilitated by the Taliban.

140 persons were displaced due to conflict from Balkh Province in August 2021. No displacement has been registered from January to the beginning of May 2022. IOM identified 115 143 IDP arrivals in Balkh in the period between August 2021 and December 2021. In the same period 149 475 IDPs returned to Balkh. IOM identified Balkh as second among the Afghan provinces in terms of IDPs arriving in the province and in terms of IDPs fleeing the province since August 2021.

Focus on the provincial capital: Mazar-e Sharif

Mazar-e Sharif was the most affected district in the province, with 55 security incidents recorded by ACLED.

ISKP carried out several attacks on the civilian population in the city in April and May 2022, including an attack on the Shia Hazara She Dokan mosque in late April 2022. The four explosions on 21 April 2022 were carried out with a hidden remote explosive device when the mosque was full of people. Depending on the source, 12 to 50 people were killed and 58 to 87 were injured in the attack.

On two occasions, ISKP also targeted minibuses carrying civilians in April and May 2022, resulting in 9-11 deaths and 17 injuries, and at least 9 deaths respectively. Another attack occurred on 25 May 2022, when three bombs exploded on separate minibuses in Mazar-e Sharif. The explosions killed at least ten people. In another attack in June 2022, a vehicle carrying airport employees was attacked by ISKP, resulting in 2 deaths and 6 injuries.

On 13 April 2022, it was reported that NRF claimed to have targeted a Taliban base near the international airport in Mazar-e Sharif.

Mazar-e Sharif district came second after Kabul District in terms of arrivals of IDPs.

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that indiscriminate violence is taking place in the province of Balkh, however not at a high level. Moreover, a significant proportion of the civilian fatalities in the province is considered to be the result of security incidents of a targeted nature. Therefore, a high level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.