COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

[Main COI reference: Security 2022, 4.28, pp. 173-177]

As the homebase of NRF, Panjshir was the centre of resistance to the Taliban following their takeover of the country in August 2021. While the resistance armed group managed to retain control in the beginning, on 6 September 2021, the Taliban announced that they took over Panjshir province. Taliban troops continued to be concentrated in the province and in February 2022 deployed several thousand fighters in response to continuing attacks from NRF fighters [Security 2022, 2.1].

During the reference period, ACLED recorded 322 security incidents in Panjshir (average of 5.2 incidents per week), the majority of which (225) were coded as battles. Violence against civilians (68), and explosions/remote violence (29) were also reported. Most of the reported security incidents (156) were attributed to NRF, the large majority of these incidents were coded as battles, 145 incidents were attributed to the Taliban military forces, and 17 to unidentified armed groups. According to ACLED, the security incidents in the province resulted in 926 fatalities, which included combatants and non-combatants.

UCDP recorded 147 security incidents in the period between 16 August 2021 and 22 October, resulting in 79 civilian deaths. Compared to population data from UNOCHA, this represented 35 civilian deaths per 100 000 inhabitants.

Examples of incidents included clashes between Taliban and the NRF, clearing operations by the Taliban against the NRF hideouts and search operations targeting communities perceived by the Taliban as supporting the NRF, detentions and torture of civilians accused of association with the NRF, the killing of previously captured members of the NRF and of former members of the security forces by the Taliban, an explosion against a high ranking member of the Panjshir police force, the killing of Taliban commanders by the NRF in various districts and IED attacks against Taliban vehicles. It was reported that forced displacement of civilians by the Taliban after clashes with NRF also took place.

Health facilities in three districts were used as military bases in September 2021. In May 2022, the Taliban cut off telecommunication antennas in one district, due to clashes with NRF forces.

In September 2021, 6 188 persons were displaced from several districts in Panjshir due to conflict. In April and May 2022, 392 persons were displaced. IOM identified 1 605 IDP arrivals in Panjshir in the period between August and December 2021. In the same period, 69 013 IDPs returned to Panjshir.