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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

2023_CG_AFG_Map

[Main COI reference: Security 2022, 4.2, pp. 88-91]

As of May 2022, Badakhshan was reported as one of the provinces where resistance to the Taliban was growing. It was reported that 10 000 Taliban troops were stationed in the province since February 2022.

During the reference period ACLED recorded 113 security incidents in Badakhshan (average of 1.8 incidents per week), including 66 battles, 33 violence against civilians, 14 explosions/remote violence. Most incidents were attributed to the Taliban forces and NRF. According to ACLED, the security incidents in the province resulted in 212 fatalities, which included combatants and non-combatants.

UCDP recorded 32 security incidents in the period between 16 August 2021 and 22 October, resulting in 14 civilian deaths. Compared to population data from UNOCHA, this represented less than one civilian death per 100 000 inhabitants.

Incidents included clashes between Taliban and NRF, attacks of NRF and the Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF) against the Taliban. Examples included a hand grenade explosion targeting two members of the Taliban security forces, a landmine explosion injuring the provincial Taliban’s security chief and killing two of his bodyguards, the killing of a Taliban commander and his bodyguard by unidentified gunmen, the killing of the Taliban’s provincial head of the Mines and Petroleum department by ISKP, clashes between Taliban forces, operations of Taliban against resistance forces and ISKP, the killing of NRF members by the Taliban, the killing and beating by the Taliban of civilians, including a former district governor, the arrest of two sons of a former mayor and a former member of the Special Police Force by the Taliban, the stoning of a man and a woman accused of illegal relations and a roadside mine explosion wounding a female student.

From August to November 2021, 105 persons were displaced due to conflict. IOM identified 19 496 IDP arrivals in Badakhshan in the period between August 2021 and December 2021. In the same period, 31 825 IDP’s returned to Badakhshan. There were no displacement movements in or out of the province recorded by UNOCHA from January to the beginning of May 2022.

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that indiscriminate violence is taking place in the province of Badakhshan, however not at a high level. Moreover, a significant proportion of the civilian fatalities in the province is considered to be the result of security incidents of a targeted nature. Therefore, a high level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.