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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

2023_CG_AFG_Map

[Main COI reference: Security 2022, 4.16, pp. 132-137]

In a June 2022 report, the UN Secretary General identified Kandahar Province as one of the four most conflict-affected provinces in Afghanistan in the period between 1 January and 21 May 2022.

In April 2022, ACLED and Afghan Peace Watch reported that ISKP had also become active in Kandahar Province.

During the reference period, ACLED recorded 118 security incidents in Kandahar Province (average of 1.9 incidents per week) of which 64 were cases of violence against civilians, 36 battles, and 18 explosions/remote violence.

Most incidents were attributed to Taliban forces, unidentified armed group(s) and ISKP. ACLED also reported several attacks against Taliban targets by Anti-Taliban resistance movements, such as the NRF (2), AFF (7) and NLFA (3).

According to ACLED, the security incidents in the province resulted in 190 fatalities, which included combatants and non-combatants.

UCDP recorded 40 security incidents in the period between 16 August 2021 and 22 October, resulting in 89 civilian deaths. Compared to population data from UNOCHA, this represented five civilian deaths per 100 000 inhabitants.

Examples of incidents include Taliban detainment, enforced disappearance and killings of members of the former security forces, beatings of a civil activist and arrest of her family members, open fire on two civilians. Also, NRF, AFF and NLFA attacks on Taliban targets, unidentified armed groups and ISKP attacks on civilians and battles with the Taliban, clashes between Taliban and Pakistani forces along the Durand border line with civilian casualties, businessmen kidnappings.

Between August 2021 and April 2022, the WHO recorded one attack on a healthcare facility in Kandahar on 18 in November 2021. According to UNOCHA, Kandahar is one of the eight provinces ‘with the highest priority’ for UNMAS survey, as an area ‘where threats of improvised mines have been reported as a result of recent conflicts’. Sources reported civilian casualties caused by unexploded ordnance, including children. Residents of Kandahar Province were reportedly affected by forced evictions carried out by Taliban forces around September 2021 ‘in apparent retaliation for the residents’ perceived support for the former government’.

366 persons were displaced due to conflict from Kandahar to Herat Province in September and October 2021. No displacement has been registered from January to the beginning of May 2022. IOM identified 15 022 IDP arrivals in Kandahar in the period between August 2021 and December 2021. In the same period, 25 188 IDPs returned to Kandahar.

Focus on the provincial capital: Kandahar City

According to ACLED, Kandahar District was the most affected district in the province. During the reference period, ACLED recorded 62 security incidents (average of 1 incident per week), of which 34 were cases of violence against civilians, 24 battles and 4 explosions/remote violence.

Incidents attributed to the ISKP included the attack on the Bibi Fatima Mosque, Kandahar City’s largest Hazara Shia mosque, on 15 October 2021, carried out by three suicide bombers who activated their explosives when they were surrounded by worshippers, killing at least 47 and wounding more than 80 people. An attack on a Shia Mosque on 26 December 2022, was also reported, resulting in four civilians injured, including a religious cleric.

Targeted attacks on civilians by Taliban forces were also reported, including the incident on 28 June 2022 when Taliban forces opened fire on two civilians and injured them for an unknown reason, and the killing of a former soldier and the injury of his companion in the Chaharbagh neighbourhood on 26 June 2022.

With reference to social media and local news outlets, ACLED reported that, on 29 November 2021, NRF conducted an attack on a checkpoint on a road in the third district of Kandahar City, killing at least two Taliban members and injuring civilians.

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that indiscriminate violence is taking place in the province of Kandahar, however not at a high level. Moreover, a significant proportion of the civilian fatalities in the province is considered to be the result of security incidents of a targeted nature. Therefore, a high level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.