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COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

2023_CG_AFG_Map

[Main COI reference: Security 2022, 4.4, pp. 94-98]

Baghlan is one of the main areas where resistance to the Taliban has been active and where NRF were able to temporarily hold territory following the takeover. In spring 2022, other resistance groups affiliated to NRF, Andarab Resistance Front and the Afghan Freedom Front, emerged in the province. As of May 2022, Baghlan was reported as one of the provinces where resistance to the Taliban was growing.

During the reference period ACLED recorded 234 security incidents in Baghlan (average of 3.8 incidents per week), including 152 battles, 76 violence against civilians, 6 explosions/remote violence. Most incidents were attributed to the Taliban forces and NRF. According to ACLED, the security incidents in the province resulted in 558 fatalities, which included combatants and non-combatants.

UCDP recorded 101 security incidents in the period between 16 August 2021 and 22 October 2022, resulting in 56 civilian deaths. Compared to population data from UNOCHA, this represented three civilian deaths per 100 000 inhabitants.

Incidents included clashes between Taliban and NRF in various districts, attacks of NRF and AFF against the Taliban, the killing in their sleep of two NRF members and the beheading and mutilation of four NRF fighters by the Taliban, the detention, torture and killing of civilians accused of association with resistance groups by the Taliban, as well as taking hostage family members of resistance fighters, the allegedly unintentional killing of a buzkashi player during a search operation by the Taliban, the killing of a doctor by unidentified perpetrators, forced disappearances and killings of former government officials and members of ANDSF.

Violence against civilians increased in February 2022, coinciding with a rise in clashes between the Taliban and resistance movements.

In April 2022, the Taliban cut off communication networks in two districts, reportedly to put pressure on NRF forces. In May 2022, it was reported that the Taliban had forcibly displaced more than 40 families from Andarab district. Residents of Pul-e Hesar district have also been forcibly displaced.

From mid-August to the end of September 2021, 133 persons were displaced due to conflict. In April 2022, 763 persons were displaced. IOM identified 28 397 IDP arrivals in Baghlan in the period between August 2021 and December 2021. In the same period 20 594 IDPs returned to Baghlan.

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that indiscriminate violence is taking place in the province of Baghlan, however not at a high level. Moreover, a significant proportion of the civilian fatalities in the province is considered to be the result of security incidents of a targeted nature. Therefore, a high level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.