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Focus on provinces

COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

The following assessment has been made based on this general information and on the information analysed at provincial level (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Level of indiscriminate violence in Afghanistan (based on information up to 31 October 2022).

2023 assessment of the level of indiscriminate violence by province
 
 

The level of indiscriminate violence is high and, therefore, a lower level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.

Indiscriminate violence is also taking place, however not at a high level. Moreover, a significant proportion of the civilian fatalities in these provinces is considered to be the result of security incidents of a targeted nature. A high level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.

There is currently no real risk for a civilian to be personally affected by indiscriminate violence within the meaning of Article 15(c) QD.

No province in Afghanistan is currently assessed to reach such an exceptionally high level of violence that ‘mere presence’ on the territory would be considered sufficient in order to establish a real risk of serious harm under Article 15(c) QD.

Panjshir is currently the province most affected by indiscriminate violence. It is assessed that the level of such violence in the province is high and, therefore, a lower level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.

Indiscriminate violence is also taking place in the provinces of Badakhshan, Baghlan, Balkh, Kabul, Kandahar, Kapisa, Kunar, Kunduz, Nangarhar, Parwan, Takhar. However, this violence does not reach a high level. Moreover, a significant proportion of the civilian fatalities in these provinces is considered to be the result of security incidents of a targeted nature.

Therefore, a high level of individual elements is required in order to substantiate subsidiary protection needs under Article 15(c) QD.

In the remaining provinces of Afghanistan, including Badghis, Bamyan, Daykundi, Farah, Faryab, Ghazni, Ghor, Helmand, Herat, Jawzjan, Khost, Laghman, Logar, Nimroz, Nuristan, Paktika, Paktiya, Samangan, Sar-e Pul, Uruzgan, Wardak, Zabul, it is assessed that there is currently no real risk for a civilian to be personally affected by indiscriminate violence within the meaning of Article 15(c) QD8 .

This may be because the criteria for an armed conflict within the meaning of this provision are not met, because no indiscriminate violence is taking place, or because the level of indiscriminate violence is so low, that in general there would be no real risk for a civilian to be affected by it.

The sections below provide an overview of the security situation at provincial level. Provinces in focus are those where anti-Taliban resistance groups or ISKP were particularly active over the period following the Taliban takeover and until October 2022. For provinces where ISKP is reported to be active, special attention is given to the situation in the provincial capitals, where the group’s attacks often concentrated.

While some security incidents are reported in all other provinces of Afghanistan, those were primarily of targeted nature. If indiscriminate violence in a situation of armed conflict occurs, this is assessed to be limited and would not substantiate a real risk of serious harm under Article 15(c) QD9 . In view of the fluidity of the ongoing conflicts, the most recent available COI should always be taken in consideration.