General information

Bay region is located at the south-west of Somalia and consists of four districts. The region’s capital is Baidoa which also serves as the de facto capital of South-West state, though officially the capital is Baraawe in Lower Shabelle region. Baidoa is the largest city in the region.

Bay region is of significant strategic and commercial importance for Somalia. The paved road from Mogadishu through Baidoa to Gedo region and the Kenya border is one of the most important commercial arteries in the country. Droughts and floods resulting from climate change heavily affected the region and the lives of its agro-pastoralists inhabitants, causing loss of livelihoods and displacement.

The region is mainly inhabited by the Rahanweyn group clans, Mirifle (mainly inhabiting the northern part of the region) and the Digil (predominating in the south). Small communities of Hawiye groups are also present. Baidoa is mainly inhabited by the Mirifle clan.

About a quarter of all IDP settlements in Somalia are located in and around Baidoa. A large number of settlers are Digil / Mirifle returnees from Kenya. However, many IDPs clan identities are not indigenous to Baidoa, altering the town’s demographics.

In 2021, UNOCHA estimated the population of Bay at 1 055 914 inhabitants.

Background and actors involved in armed confrontations

Being a hub of government installations, Bay is characterised by heavy presence of security forces. The main source of conflict in Bay is the on-going armed confrontation between Al-Shabaab and anti-Al-Shabaab forces, among which State and federal state forces which are politically and militarily aligned. Baidoa hosts a major ATMIS/AMISOM garrison and houses a large ATMIS/AMISOM contingent in the protected airport zone.

Al-Shabaab was involved in 90% of the security incidents reported in Bay between 1 July 2021 and 30 November 2022. Al-Shabaab repeatedly attacked ATMIS/AMISOM bases in Diinsoor. Offensive operations against the group were launched by South-West State security and intelligence forces and government military forces. Macawiisley, a clan based local militia supported by the government launched an offensive against Al-Shabaab in August/September 2022. 

State and federal state forces maintained control of main towns such as, Baidoa, Buur Hakaba, Qansax Dheere, Diinsoor, and Bardale. Control over these towns’ countryside was either mixed or unclear. Al-Shabaab controlled about half of Bay’s non-urban territory, of the town of Bulo-Fulay and of parts of Lego town.

The area surrounding Baidoa was under Al-Shabaab’s influence, even if not under full control. In this context, Al-Shabaab imposed a tax regime to allow the movement of goods in the city of Baidoa. In September 2022, militia members and SNA troops took over several Al-Shabaab controlled settlements on the outskirts of Baidoa city. In early December 2022, Al-Shabaab had retaken strategic settlements close to Baidoa town from government forces.

Conflicts over land tenure and the use of natural resources in the city of Baidoa involved clans, agro-pastoralist groups and IDPs both internally displaced and from abroad living in the settlements.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents

The incidents related to Al-Shabaab involved either Somali military or police forces or ATMIS/AMISOM forces, as well as local clan-based militias and were mostly coded as battles or remote violence in the form of explosions as well as violence against civilians.

A high number of IED incidents was perpetrated by Al-Shabaab in attempts to attack government installations and security forces. 

Illustrative security incidents reported during the reference period included, for example, IED attacks at markets. On 5 December 2021 an IED attack in Awdinle, on a market’s teahouse, resulted in the death of at least four people and the injury of five others. Another IED attack on 19 November 2021 killed five civilians and injured another 12 people at a market in Berdale town.

Clashes between clan-based forces and with Al-Shabaab took place in Baidoa.

Incidents: data

ACLED reported 310 security incidents (an average of 4.2 security incidents per week) in Bay region between 1 July 2021 and 30 November 2023. Out of those incidents, 198 were coded as ‘battles’, 77 as ‘explosions/remote violence’ and 35 as ‘violence against civilians’. In the period from 1 December 2022 to 14 April 2023, 97 security incidents were recorded in Bay representing an average of 5.1 security incidents per week. Out of those incidents, 69 were coded as ‘battles’.

Geographical scope

Security incidents occurred in all 4 districts of Bay with the largest overall number being recorded in Baydhaba (216 incidents).

Fatalities among civilians and non-civilians

In the 17 months between July 2021 and November 2022, ACLED recorded a total of 302 fatalities in the region. In the 4.5 months between December 2022 and mid-April 2023, ACLED recorded a total of 110 fatalities in the region. Compared to the figures for the population in the region as from 2021, this represents approximately 39 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants for the whole reference period.

Displacement

Between July 2021 and November 2022, 25 567 individuals were newly displaced from Bay due to conflict or insecurity, according to PRMN. Of these, 37 % were displaced within the region, while the remaining 16 100 individuals were displaced to other regions, especially Benadir.

Between December 2022 and March 2023, 4 256 individuals were newly displaced from Bay, according to PRMN.

Further impact on civilians

Al-Shabaab activity and blockades of government-controlled towns imposed limitations on economic activities and the delivery of humanitarian aid. Three humanitarian access incidents were documented by UNOCHA during the reference period. Al-Shabaab limited access to water by destroying and seizing control of water points in Qansax Dheere district and Buur Hakaba district’s respectively. The group taxed the local communities for water consumption and obliged locals to acquire a ‘farming permit’ to be able to use their farmland. Properties were confiscated or destroyed in case of noncompliance.