COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: August 2023

The situation in Galgaduud should be seen in light of the situation in the neighbouring regions of Mudug and Hiraan.

Main COI references: [Security 2023, 2.5.1., pp. 138-145; COI Update 2023, 1.2., p. 9; 1.3.1., p. 13; 1.3.4., pp. 16-19;  Security 2021, 2.5.1, pp. 110-112; Actors, 7.5, pp. 96-97]

Galgaduud region is located in central Somalia and consists of five districts. The region’s capital is Dhusamareb.

It is mainly inhabited inhabited by the Habar Gidir (Hawiye) sub-clans, Suleiman (also Suliman or Saleban), Ayr and Duduble, and the Murasade (Hawiye) clan. The Marehan (Darood) sub-clan is also present in the border area of Ethiopia.

In 2021, UNOCHA estimated the population of Galgaduud region at 687 572 inhabitants.  

Background and actors involved in armed confrontations

Conflict dynamics were shaped by the ongoing confrontation between Al-Shabaab and anti Al-Shabaab forces, including the ASWJ and Ma'awiisley local militia. In mid-January 2023, Al-Shabaab’s strongholds such as El Dheere district was captured by anti Al-Shabaab’s forces. As a counteroffensive, on 20 January 2023, Al-Shabaab reportedly had its ‘first major tactical success’ through a SVBIED attack on a base of US-trained special forces in Gal’ad.

As of 30 November 2022, Al-Shabaab was fully in control of the south-eastern part of Galgaduud. Control over the area south and east of Dhusamareb was reported to be mixed or unclear. Al-Shabaab was reportedly the actor accounting for around the 45 % of the security incidents.

In September and October 2022, operations by the SNA and government-backed militias against Al-Shabaab reportedly resulted in territorial gains for the Somali government in the Galgaduud region. Later, in November 2022, it was reported that the Somali security forces seized the strategically and economically important town of Wabho in central Galgaduud, which was under Al-Shabaab’s control for more than 15 years.

In June 2022, Suleiman clan militias cleared the town of Bahdo of Al-Shabaab’s control.

Ma’awiisley reportedly participated actively in the liberation operatives of areas from Al-Shabaab in Galgaduud region.

Clashes between the ASWJ and the SNA were also reported.

Clan conflicts persisted and clan violence resulted in loss of life and livelihoods.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents

Armed confrontations took place between Al-Shabaab and anti Al-Shabaab forces, including the ASWJ and Ma’awiisley local militia. Habr Gedir clan militias or sub-clan militias were also reportedly involved in battles.

Illustrative security incidents include, for example the killing on 7 April 2023 of five pastoralists by armed militiamen reportedly over a clan dispute; the shooting and killing of six pastoralists in September 2022, in Caadado district (Qalaanqale area) and the abduction of seven individuals in Maarsamage area by Al-Shabaab.

In August 2022, clan clashes, allegedly triggered by disputes over resources, reportedly resulted in the deaths of at least 15 people and the injury of 35 others in the Labagalle area of Cabudwaaq district.

On 23 July 2022, a car was hit in a landmine explosion near Dhabad town causing the death of eight members of a family.

In August 2021, an 87-year old was shot and killed by Al-Shabaab militants over accusations of insulting prophet Mohamed.

Incidents: data

ACLED recorded 182 security incidents (an average of 2.5 security incidents per week) in Galgaduud region between 1 July 2021 and 30 November 2022. Out of those incidents, 113 were coded as ‘battles’, 20 as ‘explosions/remote violence’ and 49 as ‘violence against civilians’. In the period from 1 December 2022 to 14 April 2023, 61 security incidents were recorded in Galgaduud representing an average of 3.2 security incidents per week. Out of those incidents, 30 were coded as ‘violence against civilians’.

Geographical scope

Security incidents occurred in all five districts of Galgaduud with the largest overall number being recorded in Dhusamareb (85 incidents) followed by Caabudwaaq (56 incidents).

Fatalities among civilians and non-civilians

In the 17 months between July 2021 and November 2022, ACLED recorded a total of 891 fatalities in the region. In the 4.5 months between December 2022 and mid-April 2023, ACLED recorded a total of 166 fatalities in the region. Compared to the figures for the population in the region as from 2021, this represents approximately 154 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants for the whole reference period.

Displacement

Between July 2021 and November 2022, 246 089 individuals were newly displaced from Galgaduud, according to PRMN. Almost all of them (94 %) were displaced within the region, while the remaining 13 570 individuals were displaced to other regions, including Bari, Benadir, Hiraan, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, and Mudug.

As noted by the UN Secretary-General, the clashes between the ASWJ and the SNA alone led to the displacement of over 100 000 people in the Gurieel area in October 2021.

Between December 2022 and March 2023, 95 859 individuals were newly displaced from Galgaduud, according to PRMN.

Further impact on civilians

Between July and September 2021, UNOCHA documented five humanitarian access incidents in the region. Conflicts in the area reportedly affected hospitals and the provision of live-saving amenities. In March 2022, the main hospital in Ceel Dheer district was reported to be closed for more than six months, following Al-Shabaab orders, leaving residents without any medical services. According to local media, in June 2022 Al-Shabaab militants overrun Ceel Buur district hospital and discharged all patients. This incident was denied by local elders, according to another local news article. Clashes between the ASWJ and the SNA in the Gurieel area in October 2021 caused the destruction of two hospitals. UNOCHA reported that, as of 24 October 2021, Starlin Hospital in Guri Ceel suffered minimal damage although it was hit. According to sources, the hospital’s operations were disrupted as almost half of the medical staff had been displaced. Also, the Hanano hospital in Dhusamareb went through a shortage of emergency treatment kits.