COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: August 2023

The situation in Nugal should be seen in light of the situation in the (neighbouring) regions of Mudug and Bari.

Main COI references: [Security 2023, 2.6.1., p. 154-159; COI Update 2023, 1.3.4., pp. 16-19]

General information

Nugal is located in Puntland in the north-east of Somalia. It consists of three administrative districts: Garowe, Burtinle and Eyl. The region’s capital is Garowe. Garowe is also the capital of Puntland, where the executive, parliamentary and judiciary branches of the state are based [Socio-economic 2021, 2.1., p. 52].

Most of Puntland’s population comes from the Darood/Harti descent group. From a clan perspective, Nugal is rather homogenous, with the Issa Mahmud almost completely dominating the region and with Omar Mahmud clan, still from the Darood/Harti group, dominant in the southern part of Nugal and in north Mudug. Another smaller clan, the Awrtable, inhabits the area close to the Eyl port town.

In 2021, UNOCHA estimated the population of Nugal region at 534 574 inhabitants.

Background and actors involved in armed confrontations

Puntland’s state administration and security apparatus are reportedly fully in control of the Nugal region. The region is characterized by stability and security.

While Al-Shabaab  was not reported to be present in the region, the police were to be ready to take action in order to avert Al-Shabaab’s alleged plans for intrusion in the region in September 2022 with the aim to recruit civilians. Puntland’s military and navy forces guarded coastal areas of the region for the same purpose.

There were no major ongoing clan conflicts. Small-scale clan frictions took place in the area close to Garowe; they were usually solved through customary law and they did not turn into full-fledged or large-scale conflicts.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents

At instances, clan militias or unidentified armed groups caused some violent incidents. The large majority of incidents recorded by ACLED in the reporting period were clashes between different tribal militia or between tribal militia and security forces, mostly related to disputes over land.

One such incident took place in January 2022. Tribal militias clashed with each other in the Saahmaygaag and Sanga Jabiye areas of Nugal and Sool regions for the control of land and natural resources. During the clash, 6-20 people were estimated to have lost their lives, while several others were injured. The situation calmed down after a two-month mediation process with the involvement of elders and government officials.

In another incident in April 2022, one person was reportedly injured, during an attack by an armed group on the district high school of Eyl, on a day of election preparations.

One case of conflict-related rape was verified by UNSOM.

Incidents: data

ACLED reported 21 security incidents (an average of 0.3 security incidents per week) in Nugal region between 1 July 2021 and 30 November 2022. Out of those incidents, 10 were coded as ‘battles’ and 11 as ‘violence against civilians’. In the period from 1 December 2022 to 14 April 2023, 8 security incidents were recorded in Nugal representing an average of 0.4 security incidents per week.

Geographical scope

The large majority of security incidents in Nugal were recorded in Garowe district (19 out of 21), while of the remaining two, one was recorded in Eyl and the other in Burtinle district.

Fatalities among civilians and non-civilians

In the 17 months between July 2021 and November 2022, ACLED recorded a total of 11 fatalities in the region. In the 4.5 months between December 2022 and mid-April 2023, ACLED recorded a total of 4 fatalities in the region. Compared to the figures for the population in the region as from 2021, this represents approximately 3 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants for the whole reference period.

Displacement

Between July 2021 and November 2022, 552 individuals were newly displaced from Nugal according to PRMN. Of them, 67% were displaced within the region, while 183 individuals were displaced to the neighbouring regions, Bay and Sool.

Between December 2022 and March 2023, no individuals were newly displaced from Gedo, according to PRMN.

Further impact on civilians

One case of conflict-related rape in Garowe was verified by UNSOM.