The situation in Lower Juba should be seen in light of the situation in the neighbouring regions of Gedo and Middle Juba.

Main COI references: [Security 2023, 2.1.3., pp. 73-80; COI Update 2023, 1.1.1., p. 6; 1.3.4., pp. 16-19; Security 2021, 2.1.3., p. 60; Actors, 7.1., pp. 77-79]

General information

Lower Juba region is the southern most region of Somalia and has four districts. The region’s capital is Kismayo, which is the de facto seat of Jubbaland.

Lower Juba is characterised by demographic diversity. Inhabitants of the region belong to Somali Bantu (also known as Jareer), the Biyomaal (Dir) clan, the Tunni (Digil-Mirifle), the Mohamed Zubier/Ogaden (Darood) clan, other Darood clans, the Gaaljaal, the Harti (Darood), the Somali Bajuni and small pockets of other clans. Kismayo town has a complex population makeup, which is undergoing through changes. Since 2012, the Ogaden clan, and especially the large Mohamed Zubier sub-clan, have dominated the capital city politically, economically, and militarily.

In 2021, UNOCHA estimated the population of Lower Juba region at 979 998 inhabitants.

Background and actors involved in armed confrontations

Lower Juba is one of the best endowed regions of Somalia in comparison to other regions. The region’s resources have generated competition and conflict.

The most important actors in Lower Juba are the Jubbaland state government, Al-Shabaab, and clan leaders and militias. Jubbaland state has had strong control over Kismayo town and its immediate vicinity, including the international airport. Several other towns in Lower Jubba, such as Afmadow and Dobley, are also under Jubbaland state’s control. Reportedly, from July 2021 to November 2022, Kenyan forces were based in Hoosingow, Taabta, Kulbiyow areas and in the Abdalla Birole area of Kismayo city.

Al-Shabaab either controls or influences over most of the hinterland in Lower Jubba. As of 30 November 2022, it reportedly controlled the city of Badhaadhe in the southern part of Lower Juba and extended areas north of this city, along with areas north and east of the city of Hagar in the northern part of Lower Juba up to the areas bordering Middle Juba. Control over the areas further south bordering Kenya and those around Badhaadhe controlled by Al-Shabaab in the north-western and in the eastern part of Lower Juba was reportedly mixed or unclear. Most towns in Jamaame district were reportedly under Al-Shabaab’s direct control.

Most clans in the Lower Juba maintain an ability to muster a clan militia. The Mohamed Zubeir clan (Ogaden) - and to a lesser extent the other Ogaden clans - has the advantage of being the principal clan populating all Jubbaland state security actors, including police, military, Darwish and JISA forces.

The main conflict dynamics affecting Lower Juba region are the confrontations between Al-Shabaab and anti-Al-Shabaab forces. In this context, battles between Al-Shabaab and Jubbaland security forces, and/or Kenyan ATMIS/AMISOM forces were reported during the reference period (July 2021 – November 2022). Reportedly, in several cases the fighting was triggered after attacks by Al-Shabaab on ATMIS/AMISOM or Jubbaland forces. Al-Shabaab was allegedly the actor of almost all the security incidents recorded in the region, being involved in about 93 % of them.

(Intra) Clan rivalries also exist in the region.

Nature of violence and examples of incidents

Illustrative security incidents reported during the reference period included, for example, an Al-Shabaab attack on 23 October 2022 on the Tawakal hotel in the centre of Kismayo city. As Jubbaland officials reported, nine civilians, including students from a nearby school, were killed, while 47 others were injured.

A joint operation by DANAB and Jubbaland forces which destroyed Al-Shabaab ‘key bases’ and a prison in Kamjaroon, located 50 km north of Kismayo, in July 2022.

In June 2022, an alleged clan-based conflict, which deteriorated after the arrest of local elders by Jubbaland security forces, resulted in the death of two civilians in Dhobley town. 

Still in June 2022, following the attack by Al-Shabaab on an ATMIS basis, Kenyan ATMIS/AMISOM forces clashed with Al-Shabaab fighters in the village Hosingow, resulting in civilian casualties.

In August 2021, FGS attacked vehicles carrying Al-Shabaab members and explosives via airstrikes and bombings in Jamaame city, resulting in a number of civilians being killed.

Air and drone strikes by Kenya and the US were also reported.

Clashes between clan-based forces and with Al-Shabaab took place in Lower Juba.

Incidents: data

ACLED recorded 517 security incidents (an average of 7 security incidents per week) in Lower Juba region between July 2021 to November 2022, ranking third in terms of the number of security incidents. Out of those incidents, 397 were coded as ‘battles’, 91 as ‘explosions/remote violence’ and 29 as ‘violence against civilians’. In the period fro 1 December 2022 to 14 April 2023, 104 security incidents were recorded in Lower Juba representing an average of 5.4 security incidents per week. Out of those incidents, 78 were coded as ‘battles’.

Geographical scope

During the reference period, security incidents occurred in all 4 districts of Lower Juba, with the largest overall number being recorded in Kismayo (244 incidents) followed by Badhaadhe (126 incidents).

Fatalities among civilians and non-civilians

In the 17 months between July 2021 and November 2022, ACLED recorded a total of 548 fatalities in the region. In the 4.5 months between December 2022 and mid-April 2023, ACLED recorded a total of 264 fatalities in the region. Compared to the figures for the population in the region as from 2021, this represents approximately 83 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants for the whole reference period.

Displacement

Between July 2021 and November 2022, 14 531 individuals were newly displaced from Lower Jubba, according to PRMN. Almost of all of them (99.9 %) were displaced within the region, while the remaining 13 individuals were displaced to Benadir region. In the same period, conflict and insecurity resulted in 2 052 individuals arriving in Lower Juba, from Bay, Galgaduud, Middle Juba and Gedo.

Between December 2022 and March 2023, 9 131 individuals were newly displaced from Lower Juba, according to PRMN.

Further impact on civilians

Al-Shabaab monitored and taxed the flow of goods and people on the roads linking Kismayo to Kenya. Five major Jubbaland checkpoints were identified in the Lower Juba towns of Dhobley, Taabta (Tabta), Bilis Qooqaani, Afmadow and Kismayo.