COMMON ANALYSIS
Last update: January 2023

1.1. The Taliban takeover

Since 2001 ‘multiple and overlapping non-international armed conflicts’ have taken place in Afghanistan, involving forces of the former government and armed groups such as the Taliban and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), among others. For 18 years, confrontations were ongoing between forces of the former government, supported by an international military coalition, and the Taliban forces, who had returned to waging an insurgency after the fall of their regime on 2001 [State structure, 1.1, pp. 13-14; Security June 2021, 1.2.2, p. 47; Anti-government elements, 2.1, p. 16].

On 29 February 2020, the US and the Taliban signed an ‘agreement for bringing peace’ to Afghanistan. After this agreement, the US military was less involved in direct conflict in Afghanistan while the Taliban intensified its attacks against the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF). The Taliban initiated their final offensive on 1 May 2021, the same day the withdrawal of international forces was initiated [Security June 2021, 1.3, p. 57; Security September 2021, 1.1.1, p. 11].

During the summer months of 2021, the Taliban swept over Afghanistan and took control over several districts, notably in the Northern provinces and districts encircling the provincial capitals. In the first week of August 2021, the Taliban advanced, and in less than nine days they took control over most of Afghanistan’s provincial capitals. On 15 August 2021, President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. Taliban leaders entered the presidential palace and declared the war to be over, while emergency evacuations organised by foreign countries took place in Kabul. [Security September 2021, 1.1.1, p. 11; 1.1.3, p. 14]

First Vice President Amrullah Saleh relocated temporarily to the province of Panjshir and declared himself ‘caretaker President’. Resistance forces, i.e. the National Resistance Front (NRF), held out for a few weeks in the province before the Taliban claimed to have defeated them on 6 September 2021. Increased fighting between the NRF and the Taliban was reported in January/February and May 2022. The Taliban have also been facing an increase in ISKP attacks mainly in the east and the north of the country [Targeting 2022, 1.1, p. 17; Security 2022, 2.2.1, p. 47; 2.3, p. 50]. 

However, the Taliban claimed control of the entire territory of Afghanistan and no other actor reportedly exercised territorial control or constituted an existential threat to the Taliban’s authority as of July 2022 [Security 2022, 1.1, p. 22, 2.1.1, p. 36].

Following the Taliban takeover, the number of security incidents reported in the country decreased significantly, and confrontations were generally limited to areas where resistance groups formed and operated and where the ISKP was active [Security 2022, 1.1, pp. 21-22; 3, p. 58].

1.2. State building and political system

Following the sudden collapse of the former government of Afghanistan, the Taliban announced the re-establishment of the ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’, which was previously in power in Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001 [Country Focus 2022, 1.1.1, p. 14]. As of June 2022, the Taliban de facto authorities had not yet been formally recognised by any foreign government [KSEI 2022, 1.1, p.15]

During the first press conference after the takeover, Taliban spokesmen said that the Taliban had changed during the past 20 years in terms of experience, maturity and vision, but that Afghanistan was still a Muslim nation and that there would be ‘a strong Islamic government’. They announced that they intended to act on the basis of their principles, religion and culture, and emphasised the importance of Islam and that ‘nothing should be against Islamic values’. Moreover, the Taliban have issued instructions impacting, inter alia, media, girls’ and women’s rights and the general population as regards observing Islamic law (sharia) in their daily lives. [Country Focus 2022, 1.1.3, p. 17; KSEI 2022, 1.1, p. 13]

The Taliban announced an interim government on 7 September 2021 [Targeting 2022, 1.1.2, p. 20]. The interim government has been ‘modelled on the same system’ as in the 1990s, with both a spiritual leader and a prime minister heading the government. Looking at its decision-making structure, the announced emirate could be described as a religious theocracy ruled by the ‘commander of believers and supreme leader’ Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada [Country Focus 2022, 1.1.3, p. 17].

The Taliban de facto government suspended the previous Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s constitution and announced a review of the compliance of existing Afghan laws with the sharia. However, as of early 2022, the applicable legal framework remained unclear [Security 2022, 1.2.3, p. 29] and by 1 June 2022, the Taliban had not enacted a constitution [Targeting 2022, 1.1.4 a, p. 25].

The Taliban have also started to build up formal security institutions and indicated plans to recruit 300 000 - 350 000 individuals to the de facto ministry of defence and the ministry of interior [Targeting 2022, 13.1.1, p. 189] 

The Taliban used the previous government’s state structures but abolished ministries monitoring human rights and democratic institutions. Public servants of the previous administration were asked to return to work in August 2021, but many had already been evacuated or did not resume work due to non-payment of salaries. Afghan public services depended heavily on foreign aid before the takeover and, to some extent foreign aid continued to fund salaries within parts of the public sector [Targeting 2022, 1.1.4 a, p. 25; 1.1.4 c, p. 26].

Taliban remained unclear on policies they would pursue. The legal instructions issued by them were in the form of decrees and general guidance that were enforced unevenly. The lack of clarity regarding the prevailing legal order and lack of predictability in its application were reported as some of the most prominent factors of life in Afghanistan after the takeover. [Targeting 2022, 1.1.4 a, p. 24, 1.1.4 b, pp. 25-26].

1.3. Humanitarian situation

Interruption of international aid and disruption of trade and the banking system followed immediately after the Taliban takeover. Financial sanctions paralysed Afghanistan’s economy, and escalated the humanitarian crisis in the country [Country Focus 2022, 3.4, p. 66].

After the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan’s aid-dependent economy was in ‘free fall’, with public services and the banking system collapsing. In November 2021, the United States Institute of Peace stated that Afghanistan was heading for one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, due to, among other factors, a sharp decrease in international aid, the COVID-19 pandemic, a severe drought plaguing the country and the Taliban’s inability to deliver basic services. In January 2022, the UN launched the largest single country aid appeal in history. 24.4 million people were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance. The Afghan healthcare system was also reported to be on the brink of collapse [COI Update 2022, 3, p. 13; KSEI 2022, 1.1, pp. 14-16].