COMMON ANALYSIS
Last updated: June 2022

The situation in Togdheer should be seen in light of the situation in the regions of Awdal and neighbouring Wogoyi Galbeed.

2022 CG SOMALIA region of Todheer - no real risk of indiscriminate violence

General information about the region

Togdheer region consists of four districts and its capital is Burco.

Togdheer region is predominantly inhabited by Habar Yunis and Habar Jeelo clans. The area west of Burao is inhabited by Idagalle, along with other minority sub-clans that are considered part of the Habar Yunis major clan.

In 2014, UNFPA and Somali authorities estimated the population of Togdheer region at 721 363 inhabitants.

Background and actors involved in armed confrontations

Somaliland forces control most of Somaliland territory (middle and western part).

Al Shabaab maintains a quiet network in Somaliland, mainly for purposes of finances and recruitment.

A combination of informal and formal intelligence gathering capabilities and networks by the Somaliland authorities, have been described as keys to their success against Al-Shabaab, so far.

Inter and intra-clan disputes, involving clan militias, over land and water have been reported. A source has indicated that the real issue is actually linked to clan growth and expansion dynamics.

Buhodle district, which falls within Somaliland’s administrative power, refuses to be part of Somaliland, and at times it allies with the FGS and at times with the Puntland administration.

In September 2020, it was reported that Somaliland security forces arrested several terror suspects and seized weapons and explosive devices in Burao town.

Nature of violence

Togdheer is the site of disputes and clan confrontations and feuds. For example, sub-clan militias engaged in military confrontations on clan revenge grounds in and around Buhodle in January-February of 2021, resulting in various casualties and fatalities. Among others, security incidents related to clan conflicts do not always receive local media attention and hence might go under-reported in Somalia.

In March and April 2021, two operations of the Puntland security forces against respectively Al-Shabaab and ISS affiliated groups were reported in Odweine district, killing a number of militants.

On November 2020, an IED by an unknown group exploded when a school bus was passing by in Burco district, causing three to seven casualties.

Incidents data

ACLED recorded 20 security incidents (an average of 0.3 security incidents per week) in Togdheer region between 1 January 2020 and 30 June 2021. Out of those incidents, 10 were coded as battles, 1 as explosion/remote violence and 9 as violence against civilians.

Geographical scope

Security incidents occurred in 3 out of 4 districts of Togdheer region with the largest overall number being recorded in Buhodle district (16 incidents).

Fatalities among civilians and non-civilians

In the reference period, ACLED recorded a total of 49 fatality in the region. Compared to the figures for the population in the region as from 2014, this represents approximately 7 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants.

Displacement

Between January 2020 and May 2021, PRMN reported 11 000 new displacements from Togdheer, with the majority being within the region. In this period, conflict and insecurity led to the displacement of 1 010 cases. In 2020 and until May 2021, additional 870 displacements to Togdheer were registered from Sool.

Further impact of the armed conflict(s) on the life of civilians

In 2020, Somaliland authorities issued directives imposing conditions on humanitarian aid organizations, thereby potentially hampering humanitarian operations. For the Togdheer region, seven incidents of humanitarian workers being unable to access sites were reported in 2020.

The presence of entry and exit checkpoints at each district within Somaliland has been reported [Socio-economic 2021, 3.2.2.1].

Gang rape and other forms of gender-based violence were reported to remain a problem in urban areas of Somaliland, often occurring in impoverished neighbourhoods and among immigrants, returnees and IDPs.

Looking at the indicators, it can be concluded that in the region of Togdheer there is, in general, no real risk for a civilian to be personally affected within the meaning of Article 15(c) QD.

[Main COI references: Security 2021, 2.7.3; Actors, 7.7]